Predicting China’s Future

Published in Zaobao
(China) on 22 December 2009
by 田忠国 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Christine.Xiao. Edited by Amy Wong.
I recently discovered that the U.S. has proposed a plan still under negotiation to deploy troops into China, its next move after its economic colonization of the country. Last year, internet users commented on my article on U.S. military and strategic development, strongly opposed to my opinion on the encirclement of China by the U.S. Yes, there is a U.S. military presence in China, but what is the harm? It seems that these negotiations about President Obama’s troop request have been simmering for quite some time. Although we do not yet know the extent or nature of these negotiations, one can still sense the simmering “political reform” underneath.

Perhaps some are pinning their hopes of “political reform” on the outcome of the U.S.–China troop deployment plan?

Of course, this is merely my personal opinion, which was triggered by a message left by one of my internet followers. Let’s take a look at some of these appeals for political reform. Now that negotiations are underway, if we do not convince our leaders and change their thought process, in the end, the U.S. will deploy troops into China as a result of an elitist consensus and outdated thinking. Before the previous Chinese New Year, while the U.S. still had some semblance of power, it had already set its sights on China. China is a piece of fatty meat; once shared and divided, the country will wake up and destroy American capitalism. Angry Chinese citizens will no doubt wreak havoc upon American interests.

One solution would be to foster a U.S.-controlled government to support American interests in China. The U.S. would comfortably enjoy the fruits and profits of its labor and leave its contradictions to the Chinese.

Now Obama has proposed to deploy troops in China. His preliminary objective is certainly not military but to test the U.S.’s ability to influence China. Secondly, it is also to test China’s strategic wisdom and pit it in a war of wills, in order to determine whether China has the strength to resist the U.S. Thirdly, the U.S. would also like to place troops in the Wakhan Corridor.

Japan guards the East China Sea. The U.S. sails the South China Sea and it wants the Wakhan Corridor. All of China’s natural resources are in the hands of the U.S. As a result, the U.S. can easily control China’s economy and politics or go as far as to provoke conflict between China and Afghanistan and divide and rule society.

If civil unrest happens in China, it will not go the way the U.S. has planned and will most likely head in the exact opposite direction. China is a huge nation with a population of 1.3 billion, 90 percent of whom are Maoists. Once citizens realize the danger facing their country, they will join together as one.

During the Korean War, the Chinese People’s Voluntary Army defeated the U.S. Army using substandard rifles and pushed back American hegemony for decades. Those who claim I am bragging simply do not understand the war spirit and emotion of the Chinese people.

Some, to their credit, do worry that civil unrest in China will lead to strife, conflict and turmoil. However, a China on the brink of losing internal consensus is a major opportunity. Natural disasters brought about primitive communism, brutal exploitation and oppression of the proletarian revolution and socialism. The reforms of the past three decades have forced the nation to choose Maoism. We know that human progress is achieved during a time of disaster and the best solution emerges when people have hit a wall. This is the reason for primitive communism, the philosophy of Marxism-Leninism and Einstein’s theory of relativity.

Disasters bring about people’s dedication and integrity, which leads to the growth of wisdom.

Of course, I do not want to see any strife, conflict or turmoil take place in China; however, the development of world history follows its own internal logic. Even the gods cannot change whose time for change has not come. When the right time comes, contradictions have accumulated to the point when the old values system can be destroyed. At this turning point, great figures emerge. I call this accumulation process of contradictions the annals of coincidence. That is to say, every occasional phenomenon in human history is the necessary result of objective laws. There is a Buddhist philosophy of impermanence. In fact, transience is a normal state; it is the necessary result of objective laws.

I am greatly concerned with the ignorance of the public, which behaves as though asleep. Nevertheless, if woken at the improper time, the opposite result will be produced. When is the right time to wake up? If one walks in the darkness with great despair, one faint glimmer of light can provide the courage and energy to break free. In times of poverty, survival in endless dark nights is indeed possible. In times of relative abundance, however, spiritual crises in the endless night are boundless.

The spiritual crisis of human beings originates from their desire for justice.

This longing for justice is the faint glimmer of hope in the dark night, the reason why Maoism returns to people’s hearts. For the past 30 years, Maoism has been spiritual food for the Chinese people, who welcome and embrace its return wholeheartedly. One day, a rebellious force will burst out.

People pin their hopes on the central government to prevent the disintegration of their nation. Yet the elitists created by capitalism are sparing no efforts to accelerate the transformation of China. I once wrote in an article that two regimes exist in the world. One is the proletariat regime, which I call the world for civilians. The other is the capitalist regime, which I call the world for the bourgeois. The nature of a nation is determined by its ruling class. The disappearance of one class regime alters the nature of a nation.

The death of a country marks the moment of a public awakening. When a nation dies, people lose their homes and identities.

The foundation of capitalist nations is private ownership, while the foundation of socialist nations is public ownership. If the foundation of an economic system disappears, then the nation dies. Apparently, reforms of public ownership are not simple economic issues but manifest themselves in the form of a struggle between the two classes. The root cause of the class struggle is when the ruling class fights you, robs you, denies you the right to resist and say no.

The party cannot win the battle over the restoration of capitalism, but the public can. That is my basic judgment about China’s future. The breaking point for this class struggle will be the stationing of American troops along the Wakhan Corridor.


从奧巴马要求到中国驻军看中国未来

[2381] (2009-12-22)

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  今天读到张宏良先生的文章,才知道美国在中国完成了经济殖民化之后,又开始有了新要求:到中国驻军。而且处于磋商状态。去年,有网友在我谈应对美国军事战略包围问题的文章后留言,反对我破除美国战略包围的观点,并说,不要说美国对中国包围,就是美国到中国驻军有什么不好?看来,这个磋商由来已久,并非奧巴马提出到中国驻军之后的事。现在我们虽然不敢说磋商者是谁,也无法知道磋商的内容,但我们隐隐感到磋商的存在,而且,其磋商的目标必然与所谓的“政治改革”有关。

  或许,某些人把“政治改革”的希望,寄托在美国到中国驻军的身上。

  当然,这只是个人的直觉,而激活我的这个直觉的,是那位网友一年前的留言和张宏良先生文章中所揭示出的问题。再看看某些人对重启改革和加快政治改革的呼吁,似乎佐证了直觉的正确。美国军队进驻中国既然在磋商状态,不论此次磋商的结果暂时如何,但如果不反思治国思想,不清理精英队伍,不改变思维模式,最终美国还是得到中国驻军。思维模式和精英共识形成的潜在机制,其结果必然如此。去年春节前,美国一旦还过气来,首先对付的必然是中国。因为,中国是块肥肉,分而食之后,由于在民众中存在毛主义的价值判断体系,中国一旦醒来,自然会对美国资本主义的价值秩序起到解构作用,而且中国民众的反弹,必然会给美国利益产生严重冲击。

  所以,一劳永逸的作法就是在中国扶植一个美国的代管政府,成为美国的利益输送国,这样美国就能安逸的坐食其利,而把矛盾留给中国。

  现在奧巴马提出到中国驻军,其先期目标并非达成到中国驻军的目的,而是试探美国培植势力的能力,这是一。其二,试探中国战争意志和战略智慧,有没有冲破美国培植势力的能力。这一“磋商”,中国的家当底尽泄于美国,下一步,也就是其三了:在瓦罕走廊驻军。

  东海有日本把门,南海有美军堵塞截,西有美国在瓦罕走廊的驻军,中国需要的自然资源尽由美国调控了。其次,掌握了自然资源的控制权,即可以在高端控制中国经济,又可以控制中国政治。再次,挑起中国同伊斯兰民族的矛盾,激活中国内乱,达到分而治之的目的。

  但是有一点,美国可能根本想不到,中国一旦内乱,并不会朝它预设的路线行走,而最大的可能是走向它愿望的反面。因为,中国是十三亿人口的大国,有90%左右的毛主义者,一旦民众认识到中华民族的生存危机,就会激活巨大的凝聚力,形成全国人民的共同意志,重新自动组织起来。

  在朝鲜战场上,中国人民志愿军用劣质步枪打败美军,在中国土地上,中国人民用烧火棍也同样能打得美军忘记霸权几十年。这样说有人一定说我又在吹牛了,其实,说这话的人根本不了解中国人的战争智慧、战争意志和战争精神,也不了解中国人的民族情感。

  张宏良先生担心中国内乱引起大分裂、大冲突、大动荡,拳拳之心天地可鉴。但是,失去价值目标共识整合能力的中国,谁又敢断言大灾难不是大机遇呢?自然灾难使人类产生了原始共产主义,残酷的剥削压迫催生了无产阶级革命和社会主义制度,近三十年的改革又迫使全国人民选择了毛主义,当人类无法给科学世界一个合理的解释时,又催生了爱因斯坦的相对论。从这个角度说,人类的每一个进步,都是灾难把人类逼进死胡同,面对无解之解才产生的最佳解。原始共产主义是这样,马列毛主义的产生和爱因斯坦相对论的产生也是如此。

  灾难激活人类的无私奉献精神,无私奉献精神激活人类的大智慧。

  当然,我和张宏良先生一样不希望中国出现大分裂、大冲突、大动荡,但是,世界历史发展自有其内在逻辑,不到能改变时神仙也改变不了,到了可以改变时,也就是矛盾积累到足可以摧毁原有的价值秩序时,自然而然就出现了历史的大拐点。伟大人物就是在这个历史大拐点上给出的拐点的解。我称这种矛盾积累的过程和暴发点为空间偶合的编年史。也就是说,人类的每一次偶然现象,都是客观规律的必然。中国佛学中有个无常观,其实,无常才是真正的常,是客观规律结果的呈现,也就是说,没有偶然,客观规律的必然结果就无以呈现。

  人们为民众的不觉醒焦虑不已,我也为此心碎如捣,但是,主体意识的觉醒就和人们睡觉一样,不该醒时强迫喊醒效果会适得其反。什么是该醒时?当绝望得走在暗夜中了无希望时,一粒微小的星光都会激活走出绝境的勇气、胆量和能量。在物质极度馈乏时代,生存危机是漫茫无边的暗夜,但在物质相对丰富、人人拥有一定知识的时代,精神危机是漫茫无边的暗夜。

  人类的精神危机源于对公平正义的渴望。

  代表公平正义的思想,就是人类茫无边际暗夜中的星光,这就是毛主义重新回归人民大众心灵的原因。如果说中国的前三十年,人民大众对毛主义是一种情感的归依的话,毛主义的重新回归却是人民大众用心灵理性的迎接或者说拥抱,由压抑而产生的反作用力终会有一天暴发出来。

  人们寄希望中央以雷霆万钧之势扼阻国家性质的蜕变。但是,资改精英却在竭尽全力加快国家性质蜕变的速度。我曾在文章中一再说,现在世界上存在两种政权形式,一是无产阶级的政权,我称之为民天下,另一种是资产阶级的政权,我称之为资本的天下。资天下是资产阶级性质的政权,民天下则是无产阶级性质的政权,所以,国家性质存则国家存,国家性质亡则国家亡,因为国家性质是由其执政阶级所决定的。一个阶级政权的消失,是以国家性质的更替为标志的。

  国家性质消亡日,必是民众觉醒时。因为,国亡则失家。

  资本主义性质的国家,其基础是经济制度的私有制,社会主义性质的国家,其基础的经济制度的公有制。经济制度的基础消失,国家性质必亡。由此可知,坚持公有制基础上的改革,还是坚持公有制改为公有制,并非是简单的经济问题,而是两个阶级阶级斗争的具体表现,是两个阶级争夺领导权的具体表现。有人之所以否定阶级斗争的根本原因,就是他斗争你,抢劫你的东西,还不准你反抗,甚至说不的权利都没有。

  党内战胜不了资本主义复辟,人民大众一定能战胜。这就是我对中国未来的基本判断,而激活阶级斗争大暴发的暴发点,是美国军队进驻瓦罕走廊。

  田忠国

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1 COMMENT

  1. I have already posted a critique about this article, but it would seem the editors have not allowed it to be posted. China will always be a second rate nation due to the suppression of opposing viewpoints.