Biden Must Restore America’s Presence in the Middle East

Published in Mainichi Shimbun
(Japan) on 20 July 2022
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Joseph Santiago. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
President Joe Biden has concluded his tour of the Middle East, which included trips to Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia. While attending a meeting between leaders of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Saudi Arabia, he called for increased production of crude oil, hoping to curb the sharp rise in cost brought on by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

While the U.S. has usually viewed diplomacy in the Middle East as a top priority, this was Biden’s first trip in his one and a half years as president, likely due to a souring of relations with Saudi Arabia over its human rights violations, among other reasons. The goal of this tour was to revitalize relations with America’s Middle Eastern allies, but without a guarantee to increase oil production, it’s hard to call this trip a success.

The blame for this blunder falls at least partially on America’s inconsistent Middle East policy. While former President Donald Trump recognized the holy city of Jerusalem as Israel’s rightful capital despite Palestinian backlash, large-scale sales of arms to Saudi Arabia created something of a honeymoon period. This was undone when, after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s involvement in the slaying of a Saudi-American journalist came to light, Biden said he’d make Saudi Arabia “the pariah that they are.”

The price of fluctuating foreign policy is high, as the Saudis began cooperating with Russia in regard to oil production while moving closer to China militarily, damaging America’s influence on the country. Another especially important player to watch in the region is Iran. With Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the country has restarted its nuclear program, becoming ever-closer to obtaining nuclear weapons. Iran becoming a nuclear power would only provoke the Saudis to do the same, putting more of these weapons into more hands — yet another reason why the U.S. hoped to reconcile with its partner in the Middle East.

During the president’s tour, an online conference between leaders from Israel, India, the United States and the United Arab Emirates was held, abbreviated as the “I2U2 group,” likely with the goal of working together to keep Iranian weapons development and, for India in particular, China’s advance into the Middle East in check.

Threatened on two fronts by China and Russia, the amount of energy the United States can spare for the Middle East is limited. However, a reduced presence in the region would only allow for further instability. A foreign policy rooted in working with regional powers is the only way to regain a foothold in the area.


バイデン氏の中東政策 再構築に向け関与継続を

バイデン米大統領が中東のイスラエルとパレスチナ自治区、サウジアラビアを歴訪した。

 サウジではペルシャ湾岸6カ国の湾岸協力会議(GCC)首脳会合に出席し、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻で高騰する原油価格の抑制に向けて増産を要請した。

 米国は従来、中東外交を重視してきたが、就任から約1年半を経過しての初訪問である。人権問題をめぐってサウジとの関係が悪化したことなどが影響している。

中東の友好国との関係を修復するのが訪問の目的だった。だが、増産の確約は得られず、思い通りの成果を上げたとは言い難い。

 責任の一端は、一貫性を欠く米国の中東政策にある。

 トランプ前大統領はパレスチナの反発をよそに聖都エルサレムをイスラエルの首都と宣言する一方、サウジには武器を大量に売却して蜜月関係を築いた。

その後、バイデン氏は在米のサウジ人ジャーナリスト殺害にムハンマド皇太子が関与したと公表し、サウジを「のけ者にする」と批判して遠ざけた。

 揺れ動く政策の代償は大きい。サウジは原油産出の調整でロシアと協調し、中国と軍事協力を強めている。中露への接近で米国の影響力は低下している。

とくに懸念されるのがイランの動向である。トランプ政権時代に米国が核合意を離脱すると、核開発を再開し、すぐにでも核兵器を手にできる状態にあるという。

 イランが核を持てばサウジも追随する恐れがあり、核拡散のリスクが高まる。米国とサウジの関係改善が急がれる理由だ。

バイデン氏は歴訪中、イスラエル、インド、米国、アラブ首長国連邦(UAE)の首脳会議をオンラインで開催した。頭文字をとって「I2U2」と呼ばれる。

 いずれもイランの核保有を警戒しており、連携を強めてイランの行動を抑止する狙いがあるのだろう。インドには中国の中東進出をけん制する思惑が透けて見える。

 対中露で「二正面作戦」を強いられる米国が中東に割く余力は限られる。だが、関与を弱めれば地域は不安定化するばかりだ。

 地域諸国との協力を基盤とした中東政策を再構築することが、失地を回復する道だ。
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