1st Look at the US Presidential Election

Published in Taiwan Times
(Taiwan) on 4 August 2024
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The U.S. presidential election will be an unpredictable and exciting race to watch. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and winner of the first debate, survived an assassination attempt, around which the Republican National Party built so much momentum that it seemed victory was within its grasp. Then, unexpectedly, the Democratic candidate and incumbent President Joe Biden announced he would no longer run for reelection after facing pressure from all sides in the wake of his disastrous debate loss. Vice President Kamala Harris took over with extensive support. Immediately, the mainstream media conducted polls that favored Harris, and Trump invested huge sums in advertising to blunt Harris’ success. Countries everywhere are paying attention to this race with an eye to their own interests because the outcome not only affects the U.S., but the whole world.

Trump, who is different from traditional Republicans, started a trade war with China. As an isolationist, he reduced America’s importance on the global stage, allowing China to reach out and strengthen its regional influence in international affairs. Trump’s anti-China policy appears to be strictly about taking back business he believes belongs to the U.S. and refusing to let China take advantage of the U.S. again. Trump’s recent comments reinforce this impression. Meanwhile, Trump has a questionable relationship with Russia. He wants to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, which puts pressure, not only on Ukraine but also on the European Union and NATO. With Trump’s resurgence, democratic nations obviously have great hopes for Harris.

It is not surprising that, given Trump’s candidacy, the Democrats moved to replace Biden, who is old and senile, speaks unclearly and lost the debate with Trump. The assassination attempt on Trump significantly enhanced his momentum, while Biden’s withdrawal gave Democrats new hope. People who were supportive now look forward with new excitement. Changing candidates has brought renewed energy and won’t only stabilize the base but grow it to include those who are worried about Trump. As a person of Asian and African heritage, and as a woman, Harris entered the race as a diverse progressive. It will be worth watching whether this will embolden the conservative, traditional forces in the U.S.

Anti-Trump and anti-Democratic parties both have considerable bases of support. In the last election, the anti-Trump movement claimed a narrow victory, one which was disputed. Now, still replete with controversy, Trump has the momentum to make a comeback. He has a great ability to resonate with voters, which highlights the direction the American people want to take. No matter who wins, the new president will have to pay attention to this. We must work hard to make Taiwan of national interest to America, one that not only both parties share, but the American people. America’s “we” includes Taiwan.


(無事不談)初觀此次美總統大選

下屆美國總統大選,情勢多變戰況精彩。原本辯論勝場的共和黨川普,遭刺無事,接著全代會造勢,幾乎勝券在握。豈料,民主黨現任總統拜登會辯論慘敗後,在各方壓力下宣布不爭取連任,副總統賀錦麗在多方簇擁下接替出戰。一時間主流媒體紛紛作出有利賀錦麗民調,川普則砸巨資打廣告試圖壓制。各國也各為其利關注這場大選,因為輸贏並非美國一國之事,而將影響世界局勢…

與傳統共和黨不同的川普,雖開啟美中貿易戰,但獨立主義的他降低了美國在全球舞台上的重要性,讓中國在許多國際事務得以伸手強化區域影響力,川普抗中表現像是只為搶回他認為該屬美國的商業利益,不讓中國再佔美國便宜而已。近期言論更強化這種印象。而川普與俄國關係令人質疑,嗆言要結束俄烏戰爭,壓力不只烏克蘭,更在歐盟、北約。民主各國因應川普再起,卻明顯對賀錦麗有所期待。

拜登老態龍鍾、思言不清,辯論失守,面對川普,民主黨換拜呼聲不令人意外,川普遇刺氣勢飆高,拜登退選帶給民主黨新希望,本來相挺的各方就期待新刺激,換人選帶來嶄新活力,不僅穩定基本盤,更能廣納對川普有所憂心的各方勢力。而賀錦麗直接上陣,亞非裔又是女性,更具多元、進步價值色彩。但值得觀察的是,美國中間保守傳統勢力是否會被激化。

反川普與反民主黨在美國各擁相當基本盤,上次大選在眾多爭議下反川普陣營險勝,如今,依舊充滿爭議的川普,能氣勢未歇捲土重來,其吸引選民共鳴力量強大,也突顯美國社會大眾所要的國家利益方向,不論誰當選都要重視。我國必須努力讓台灣就是美國利益,不僅是美國跨黨派共識,更要成為美國多數人民共同的觀念,美國的「我們」包含台灣。
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