An epic diplomatic victory or sheer luck from being at the right place at the right time? That Romania is taking part in the anti-missile shield is undoubtedly a good thing for us (Romania) for several reasons.
First of all, it represents an extra guarantee of security, which is very important, especially because it exceeds the protection ensured by NATO membership. In fact, according to anonymous sources from within NATO, they had nothing to do with the Romanian-American negotiations concerning the shield. However, there are some questions that cannot be avoided. Who would attack us? It is true that right now there is no direct threat towards Romania. But at the same time, no country in NATO or the EU can consider itself completely safe. The enemies of Western civilization don’t necessarily strike the most important points of interest, but often those that are more vulnerable. Spain paid a high price for learning this.
Do we really have the money (according to experts, a few billion dollars) to sustain such a consistent investment? If we were to make decisions based on our level of poverty, then one could make an argument for disbanding the army, cutting all investment in military technology and just relying on our pacifism or our pettiness. Whatever the investment made, it is far easier to take than the human losses caused by a possible attack.
But is it worth souring our relations with Moscow? Well, in order to ruin something, there must first be something to ruin, and our relationship with Moscow hasn’t exactly been wonderful. Shield or no shield, we still get the expensive gas.
However you look at it, faced with an offer like the one the Americans made with regards to the shield, you can’t really play both sides. You’re either with Washington or with Moscow. There is no middle ground. And, as I see it, Washington is preferable.
Of course Moscow has reason to feel unhappy. The story about the shield being purely defensive is just to put the public at ease. You don’t have to be in the military to understand that the question of whether the shield is defensive in nature is ultimately a question of military and political philosophy — but a philosophy can change. A missile itself can be used both defensively and offensively.
However, Moscow did not have an overly irate reaction, probably because they must have been expecting this event since last year. Foreign Minister of Russia Serghei Lavrov did demand explanations from the U.S. and reminded them of the status held by the strategic area of the Black Sea. But the tone has been significantly calmer than when the shield covered Poland, which is much closer geographically to Russia and one of its greatest enemies.
Second of all, Romania’s involvement in the anti-missile shield represents a change in the status of its relations with the United States and in its global status as well.
“This decision changes everything; you become relevant, what you say matters. Romania is no longer on the fringe,” says military analyst Iulian Chifu. Also, many believe this change in status might have quite interesting effects, its bilateral relations with Russia included.
From the political point of view, the big story of the shield could be a subject worthy of deep meditation for Mircea Geoana, president of the Romanian Senate. The official proposal was just made by the United States, but the deal was sealed last year when Vice President Joe Biden came to Romania.
In fact, at the time, President Traian Basescu received the White House’s blessing for another term in office. There is information that during the campaign American support was not only discrete, but very consistent. Could it be that Barack Obama’s choice had something to do with the interest Moscow has in Mircea Geoana, despite his having served as Romanian ambassador to the United States?
I’m not sure that the Americans were interested in Mircea Geoana’s visit with Sorin Ovidiu Vantu (one of the richest businessmen in Romania), but I’m afraid they were very interested in his secret visit to Moscow.
Victorie diplomatica de proportii sau simplul noroc de a beneficia de un context istoric favorabil, altfel spus, de a fi acolo unde trebuie, cand trebuie, intrarea Romaniei sub scutul antiracheta este, fara indoiala, un lucru bun pentru Romania, din cel putin doua puncte de vedere.
In primul rand, este o garantie de securitate suplimentara, foarte importanta, pentru ca excede protectia pe care o asigura calitatea de membru al NATO.
De altfel, exista declaratii facute sub protectia anonimatului din cadrul Aliantei Nord Atlantice potrivit carora aceasta nu a avut nimic de-a face cu negocierile romano-americane in privinta scutului. Cateva intrebari nu pot fi totusi evitate.
Cine sa ne atace? E drept, in acest moment nu exista o amenintare directa impotriva Romaniei. Dar niciodata o tara NATO si UE nu se poate socoti cu totul in afara oricarui pericol.
Dusmanii civilizatiei occidentale nu lovesc neaparat tintele cele mai importante, ci pe acelea mai vulnerabile. Spania a platit scump intelegerea acestui adevar.
Avem bani pentru o investitie atat de consistenta (cateva miliarde de dolari, potrivit expertilor)? Daca vrem sa judecam lucrurile in logica saraciei si a pensiilor prea mici pentru un scut asa de mare, nu avem decat sa desfiintam armata, sa nu mai facem nicio investitie in tehnica militara si sa mizam pe pacifismul sau neimportanta noastra. Orice investitie este oricum mai usor de suportat decat pierderile, in primul rand in vieti omenesti, provocate de un eventual atac.
Merita sa stricam relatiile cu Moscova? Pentru a strica ceva e nevoie mai intai sa ai acel ceva, iar relatiile noastre cu Moscova nu au fost chiar minunate. Si fara scut tot de cele mai sumpe gaze naturale aveam parte.
Pana la urma, in fata unei oferte ca aceea americana in privinta scutului nu prea poti sa incerci o politica duala. Ori cu Washington-ul, ori cu Moscova. Cale de mijloc nu exista. Si cred ca oricum am lua-o Washington-ul e preferabil.
Sigur ca Moscova are motivele ei de nemultumire. Povestea cu caracterul pur defensiv al scutului este mai mult una pentru linistirea publicului. Nu trebuie sa fii militar ca sa intelegi ca acest caracter defensiv e, pana la urma, o chestiune de filosofie militara si politica, o filosofie ce poate fi, la o adica, schimbata. Racheta in sine poate fi folosita si defensiv, si ofensiv.
Dar sa observam ca reactia Moscovei nici nu este una furibunda, probabil si pentru ca se astepta la o asemenea miscare inca din toamna anului trecut. Ministrul de Externe rus, Serghei Lavrov, a cerut explicatii Statelor Unite si a amintit de statutul zonei strategie a Marii Negre. Insa tonul este cu mult mai calm decat atunci cand scutul acoperea Polonia, mult mai apropiata geografic de Rusia si unul dintre cei mai mari adversari ai acesteia, fata de care polonezii au dezvoltat o adevarata obsesie.
In al doilea rand, aceasta implicare in proiectul scutului reprezinta o schimbare de statut a Romaniei atat in relatia cu Statele Unite, relatie care atinge cea mai mare intensitate din ultimii zeci de ani, dar si in general, pe plan mondial.
"Aceasta decizie schimba paradigma, devii relevant, ceea ce spui este important. Romania nu mai este la periferie", afirma analistul militar Iulian Chifu. Sunt chiar multe pareri care sustin ca aceasta schimbare de statut ar putea avea un efect interesant inclusiv in relatiile bilaterale cu Rusia.
Din punct de vedere politic, al marii politici, povestea scutului ar putea fi o tema de meditatie si pentru Mircea Geoana. Propunerea oficiala a venit acum din SUA, insa palma a fost bauta in toamna, atunci cand a venit la Bucuresti vicepresedintele american Joe Biden.
Atunci Traian Basescu a primit de fapt binecuvantarea Casei Albe pentru un nou mandat si exista informatii ca in campanie sprijinul american a fost pe cat de discret, pe atat de consistent. Oare alegerea lui Barack Obama, in pofida unui avantaj pe care liderul PSD il avea, teoretic, din perioada cat a fost ambasador in SUA, n-o fi avut o legatura cu atractia prea mare pe care Moscova o exercita asupra lui Mircea Geoana?
Nu stiu cat i-a interesat pe americani vizita lui Mircea Geoana la S.O. Vantu, dat ma tem ca vizita secreta la Moscova i-a interesat teribil de mult.
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It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.
Time will tell whether the strategic ambitions of the French-German alliance, including those regarding the European army, will jeopardize the EU's cohesiveness, and especially how much longer they can work together within NATO.