The World According to Trump
China sees him as their most dangerous rival, falling under what is known as "Thucydides’ trap,” whose main premise is that when a rising power becomes the most dangerous rival of the ruling power, conflict is likely to arise.
I don’t claim to be an expert in political psychology, but I think I can point out certain character traits in President Donald Trump. Daniel Eskibel, a specialist in political psychology, identifies six* types of politicians: “The authoritarian (hard), the manipulator (cold, calculating), the obsessive (meticulous, precise), the paranoid (distrustful, believes that others are forming alliances against him) and the totalitarian (demands absolute obedience).” I believe Trump exhibits a combination of these characteristics.
He has a Hobbesian, monistic and politically homogeneous understanding of the world, the main principle of which is “homo homini lupus,” man is a wolf to man. Trump believes, with certain exceptions, that most of the countries that make up the geopolitical map are not true allies of the United States. Indeed, one of his slogans is "peace through strength.” Take the recent spat with Colombia, for example. Contrary to what one might think, Trump believes that other countries are trying to take advantage of American generosity. He continually accuses other NATO countries of not pulling their weight.
Trump sees China as the most dangerous rival (with good reason). Here, he falls into Thucydides' trap, which holds that when a rising power becomes the most dangerous rival of the dominant power, conflict is likely to arise. We can see this playing out with Trump’s insistence that China controls the Panama Canal. He fails to account for the DeConcini Reservation (the amendment that ratified the 1977 Panama Canal Treaty). This establishes the United States’ right to intervene unilaterally without seeking permission should it perceive a foreign threat to the canal. In my humble opinion, Trump is referring to the areas that border this waterway rather than the canal itself.
Take the ports, for example. The Chinese company Hutchison Whampoa operates two of the five ports at the entrance and exit to the canal. What is Hutchinson Whampoa? It is a transnational consortium listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. It owns 55 ports in different countries, employs 230,000 people and has investments in hotels and supermarkets, among other sectors. Its owner is the multinational conglomerate, Cheung Kong Holdings. Panama granted this company concessions in 1997, which were renewed in 2021 with the possibility of extensions until 2047. Trump alleges, not without reason, that these ports could act as a springboard in the event of any possible conflict (for storage of arms, gathering of troops, etc.).
For the time being, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit, Trump managed to get Panama to withdraw from China’s New Silk Road infrastructure initiative. But I sense that this won’t be enough for him. This move only whetted the appetite of the American eagle. These ports, just like the possibility of high-speed trains (among other things), represent potential projects. We must not forget that geopolitically and historically speaking, Panama falls within the United States’ sphere of influence.
I see a radical change between Trump’s first administration and his second. During his first term, his slogan was "America First,” as he took an isolationist position, criticizing NATO and intervention in Afghanistan. It is still too early to draw conclusions about his current administration, but I see it shaping up to be more expansionist and interventionist. (Take his declarations about Gaza, for example.) In his book, “The Art of the Deal,” Trump lays out his idea that you have to apply maximum force and see where that gets you. We’ll see what happens in the case of Panama.
The author is an expert in international law.
*Editor’s note: While the original author claims there are six types, he only lists five.
I don’t claim to be an expert in political psychology, but I think I can point out certain character traits in President Donald Trump. Daniel Eskibel, a specialist in political psychology, identifies six* types of politicians: “The authoritarian (hard), the manipulator (cold, calculating), the obsessive (meticulous, precise), the paranoid (distrustful, believes that others are forming alliances against him) and the totalitarian (demands absolute obedience).” I believe Trump exhibits a combination of these characteristics.
He has a Hobbesian, monistic and politically homogeneous understanding of the world, the main principle of which is “homo homini lupus,” man is a wolf to man. Trump believes, with certain exceptions, that most of the countries that make up the geopolitical map are not true allies of the United States. Indeed, one of his slogans is "peace through strength.” Take the recent spat with Colombia, for example. Contrary to what one might think, Trump believes that other countries are trying to take advantage of American generosity. He continually accuses other NATO countries of not pulling their weight.
Trump sees China as the most dangerous rival (with good reason). Here, he falls into Thucydides' trap, which holds that when a rising power becomes the most dangerous rival of the dominant power, conflict is likely to arise. We can see this playing out with Trump’s insistence that China controls the Panama Canal. He fails to account for the DeConcini Reservation (the amendment that ratified the 1977 Panama Canal Treaty). This establishes the United States’ right to intervene unilaterally without seeking permission should it perceive a foreign threat to the canal. In my humble opinion, Trump is referring to the areas that border this waterway rather than the canal itself.
Take the ports, for example. The Chinese company Hutchison Whampoa operates two of the five ports at the entrance and exit to the canal. What is Hutchinson Whampoa? It is a transnational consortium listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. It owns 55 ports in different countries, employs 230,000 people and has investments in hotels and supermarkets, among other sectors. Its owner is the multinational conglomerate, Cheung Kong Holdings. Panama granted this company concessions in 1997, which were renewed in 2021 with the possibility of extensions until 2047. Trump alleges, not without reason, that these ports could act as a springboard in the event of any possible conflict (for storage of arms, gathering of troops, etc.).
For the time being, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit, Trump managed to get Panama to withdraw from China’s New Silk Road infrastructure initiative. But I sense that this won’t be enough for him. This move only whetted the appetite of the American eagle. These ports, just like the possibility of high-speed trains (among other things), represent potential projects. We must not forget that geopolitically and historically speaking, Panama falls within the United States’ sphere of influence.
I see a radical change between Trump’s first administration and his second. During his first term, his slogan was "America First,” as he took an isolationist position, criticizing NATO and intervention in Afghanistan. It is still too early to draw conclusions about his current administration, but I see it shaping up to be more expansionist and interventionist. (Take his declarations about Gaza, for example.) In his book, “The Art of the Deal,” Trump lays out his idea that you have to apply maximum force and see where that gets you. We’ll see what happens in the case of Panama.
The author is an expert in international law.
*Editor’s note: While the original author claims there are six types, he only lists five.
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