The Big Change: Even Trump Understands That 1 of His Big Dreams Will Not Be Fulfilled

The old global order is being undermined and we may be standing on the threshold of a polarized and sometimes chaotic era. Trump’s vision, which sees the United States as a global superpower, may be impacted to a great degree by the major changes happening in the world.

Since the end of World War II, the world has enjoyed an order built on the ruins of the deadliest conflict in humanity’s history. The United States became the leading global power; international organizations such as the United Nations, NATO, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were established, and the doctrines of freedom, democracy and free trade led the global economy to unprecedented prosperity. However, something changed.

In recent years, particularly since the start of the third decade of the 21st century, more and more signs are indicating that the old order is being undermined and it is possible that we are standing on the threshold of a polarized and sometimes chaotic new era.

One cannot ignore the fatigue that has taken over the United States and the West as a whole after decades of heavy involvement in wars and political crises across the globe. The wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan have left a bitter taste and recent U.S. presidents, including Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden and again, Trump, have indicated a clear tendency to reduce active involvement in global conflicts.

Europe is dealing with internal crises, mass migration, political polarization, a rocky economy and ideological weakening. Populist movements are threatening to dismantle the EU from within, and the strongest countries in the EU, led by Germany and France, have been unsuccessful in leading a unified line in the international arena.

There appears to be a new axis threatening the free world. China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are no longer accepting Western hegemony and representing a powerful axis challenging the West economically and militarily. China is making efforts to break the hegemony of the dollar via the New Silk Road initiative and, through this, is gaining influence in Africa, Asia and even South America.

Chinese technology, along with its almost sole control of the critical supply chain for important metals such as germanium, used in military technologies, gives it an unprecedented advantage.

Russia, for its part, has returned to open imperialistic aspirations with its invasion of Ukraine. Despite its relative isolation from the West and the damage to it in global opinion, Russia has deepened its relations with China and Tehran.

Iran, despite the harsh blows it has received, and with a demonstrable disregard for the West, continues to try and spread its arms via terrorist organizations — Hezbollah, the Houthis, militias in Iraq and the Islamic Jihad — which form the backbone of the balance of terror in the Middle East. Similarly, North Korea has become an experimental technology lab in the area of nuclear missile launches.

Self-Dismantlement

During World War II, the world came together to fight the danger of the German Nazis. Today, the world is moving in a different direction. There is no longer a single superpower that dictates the global order and there is no universal agreement on shared values. Every country works to advance its own interests, at times by sanctifying its ideology, even at the price of military friction.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is drawing closer to China. Turkey, a member of NATO, cooperates with Moscow and Iran and, at the same time, sells weapons to Ukraine. Africa is torn between French influence, which is crumbling, and a hug on the part of Russia, Iran and China. China is trying to spread its influence in more places and is investing huge sums in Pacific countries, while India is trying to maneuver between Russia and the United States.

The West is undergoing a process of self-dismantlement. Sharp internal criticism over basic principles of democracy, attacks on freedom of expression, polarization between gender identities, racism and religiosity, and anti-colonialist movements are undermining the legitimacy of Western culture. The result is a West having difficulty defending its values. How can the United States stand against Russian or Chinese propaganda if its universities are themselves echoing the messages of self-hatred?

Israel is also in the center of the storm. The classic alliance with the United States, Europe and international Jewry is eroding. The sweeping support by the American public for Israel is no longer self-evident. Global public opinion has become unstable and Israel must maneuver between its commitment to Western values and the hostile regional reality.

Israel, which resides in a Muslim Middle East as a radical minority, faces a significant challenge. It is still dependent on the old world order, but must prepare itself for a world where it may have no backing — neither the United Nations nor the White House, and not in the streets of Paris or London.

The world is marching toward a new order where alliances, economic interests and non-Western forces dictate the pace. In this situation, strategic flexibility, military might and moral strength are needed. The new world order will be different. The ability of a country to survive, to prosper and to influence will be reserved for those who know how to act wisely against the changes likely to shake up the old world beyond recognition.