Subtle Insights: Trump out of His Depth

The Economist’s April 26, 2025 issue carried the cover headline, “Only 1,361 Days To Go.”* Inside and outside the United States, many people hope that once Donald Trump finishes his four-year presidential term, his successor will reverse course and change the direction of both the U.S. and the world.

Indeed, time is not on Trump’s side, because both domestic and international circumstances are working against him. At home, Trump faces challenges from Democrats as well as criticism from differing voices within his own Republican Party.

On July 30, 12 Democratic members of the House of Representatives filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, accusing it of preventing lawmakers from inspecting detention facilities run by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, thereby obstructing congressional oversight.

That same day, senior Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, speaking at an event hosted by the McCain Institute think tank, said he hoped President Trump would “continue moving in the direction he has taken in recent weeks”* regarding the Russia–Ukraine conflict — meaning increasing pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. McConnell, age 83 and about to reach the end of more than four decades in Congress, also urged the U.S. to raise defense spending from its current 3.4% of gross domestic product to 5%, aligning with Trump’s demands on other NATO members.

For now, Republican dissent toward Trump remains mild. But as the midterm elections draw closer, differences and disputes among the party’s various factions are likely to turn into real pressure on him. Abroad, Trump’s challenges are greater. From July 28-30, the foreign ministers of France and Saudi Arabia jointly chaired the High-Level International Conference on Peaceful Resolution of the Palestinian Issue and Implementation of the Two-State Solution at the United Nations headquarters in New York. Over 120 countries attended, but the U.S. and Israel boycotted the meeting.

Since the outbreak of the latest round of armed conflict between Israel and Palestine on Oct. 7, 2023, the death toll in Gaza has exceeded 60,000. Israel’s actions against Palestinians amount to genocide, and Gaza is in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres urged the international community not to stop at “words of goodwill.”

While this conference, too, only expressed solidarity through statements and resolutions, it still carried political weight: before the meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron said France would soon recognize the State of Palestine; during the meeting, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain would do so under certain conditions; and on the closing day, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made the same conditional pledge.

As of March 2025, 145 of the U.N.’s 193 member states had recognized Palestine. If France, the U.K. and Canada follow through, that number will rise to 148. Given their standing in the Western bloc, these recognitions would deal a serious blow to Trump’s Middle East strategy.

Trump has repeatedly postponed his promised mediation in the Russia–Ukraine war, but he has now had to admit it is a task neither he nor the U.S. can accomplish. He issued what he called a “final ultimatum” to Russia — a deadline to cease fire — and a separate “final ultimatum” to China, India and Brazil, demanding they stop importing Russian oil or face 100% secondary tariffs from the U.S.

But Putin refuses to yield from his established strategic plan. China, with its strategic autonomy, is not about to alter its Ukraine policy because of Trump’s threats. In short, Trump’s set approach to Ukraine has failed. Western media have even reported that he is conspiring — together with certain British contacts — to replace the Ukrainian president, lending credibility to McConnell’s remark that Trump has shifted his stance on the conflict.

In his first term as president, Trump announced a realignment of U.S. global strategy, naming China and Russia as America’s main adversaries. In the latter half of that term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared China the “primary” adversary. When Joe Biden took office, he said China was the only country with both the capability and intent to challenge the U.S., while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called China a “step-by-step challenge.”*

Back in the White House, Trump has clearly declared that confronting China is again the central focus of his global strategy. But facing China’s rapidly expanding strategic autonomy, he has let Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, designed to contain China, fall into neglect and has also weakened AUKUS, the U.S.–U.K.–Australia security partnership. In his bid to curb China, Trump appears increasingly powerless.

Trump knows that time is working against him. On July 29, during an appearance on the U.S. podcast First, he remarked that the White House lacked a proper-sized indoor ballroom and said he intended to fix that. On July 31, the White House press secretary announced that Trump had decided to build a 650-person indoor ballroom for the White House, intriguingly scheduled to be ready in early 2029. Some say this suggests Trump has not abandoned his ambition to seek reelection.

*Editor’s note: These quotes, though accurately translated, could not be independently verified.