Why Does the U.S. Continue to Make Things Difficult for China?

Published in Lian He Zhao Bao
(Singapore) on 24 March 2010
by Gao Shan (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Huifang Yu. Edited by Harley Jackson.
Lately, political and economic issues have continued to arise between China and the U.S. For example, the climate conference, the Iran issue, the U.S. sale of weapons to Taiwan, the U.S. president meeting the Dalai Lama, the Google issue, the interest rates issue and so on. Why is the U.S. constantly picking on China? U.S. political and economic issues determine how America approaches its foreign policies.

1. The United States’ Purpose

As the number one national power, America’s main purposes are to maintain its absolute advantages against other countries and preserve its position as the world's only superpower. The U.S. is currently suffering due to the international financial crisis and its long-term war overseas. These factors reduce its economic strength and, in turn, affect the U.S. government's ability to accomplish the above purpose. Therefore, the U.S.'s priorities are currently developing its economy and improving the livelihood of Americans.

The U.S. restructured its banking system in order to develop its economy. Right now, the debts of some financial institutions have been converted to U.S. government equity.

The U.S. needs to pass a medical reform bill and re-establish itself as a manufacturing power in order to improve its economy and domestic living standards.

All these measures will require money.

Where does the money come from?

One way is through increased income taxes. Another is to increase its debt (the U.S. deficit has reached $1.6 trillion).

However, increasing income taxes while it is still recuperating is detrimental to its economic recovery. Therefore, the best solution is to increase its debt. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar creates an illusion that the U.S. dollar is an excellent investment tool.

Then who has the ability to loan to the U.S., China, Japan, the United Kingdom or others?

2. The United States’ Strategies

The U.S. has adopted both carrot and stick strategies against China.

First of all, the carrot approach was adopted. U.S. President Obama personally visited China and said many good things, with the hope that China would cooperate with the U.S by acting in accordance to U.S. procedures and loan money to the U.S. The Chinese government, aware that it has already loaned $1.5 billion worth of public and private bonds, did not agree after seeing the continuous increase in the supply of U.S. dollars, since it feared that the U.S. dollar would depreciate.

Afterward, the U.S. remembered one of the approaches that it had adopted in the past. In October 2008, the U.S. government threatened to sell Patriot interceptor missiles and Apache helicopters to Taiwan. Their aim was achieved with this threat. Within a month, China bought a debt of $65.9 billion. This amount is good enough to purchase 2,500 tons of gold, according to the international gold standards. Of course, in November 2008, the United States’ finance secretary, Henry Paulson, did not forget to compliment China's emergence as a global economic leader in order to pacify China. The U.S. also did not forget to make use of the western authorities and China, especially by using a specific international investment bank's domestic brokerages to claim that U.S. debt is the safest investment, to make sure China would benefit from the appreciation of the price of the treasury bills and the U.S. dollar.

Thus, a similar scenario happened again. The U.S. announced that, in order to defend Taiwan's peace, it would sell weapons to Taiwan. At the same time, it declared that Taiwan's military power is insufficient, and so it would sell advanced weapons to Taiwan. For the sake of religious freedom, the U.S. would meet up with the Dalai Lama, and for the sake of human rights, Google would start a world debate on internet freedom. All these events would leave China embarrassed. The U.S. would impose an anti-dumping duty of as high as 289 percent on China's steel laminates for the sake of economic freedom. Oh, there are also the military, human rights and interests rate reports used to humiliate China.

Of course, as long as China does not purchase U.S. debt, more things like this will surface.

3. China's Choices

The first choice: Listen to expert advice. Going against the U.S. involves too many risks. Buy the U.S. debt in exchange for peace. The U.S. will be satisfied and give China the carrot.

The Consequences:

1. After the U.S. gets the money, it will enhance its military power and improve the quality of life for Americans while maintaining its number one economic power position.

2. The U.S. will print money, and the financial institutions' debts will become the U.S. government's equity. As a result, the risks are transferred to China.

3. The economic crisis will develop into a U.S. banknote crisis. China will suffer serious inflation because the Chinese yuan does not have sufficient gold reserves as backup.

4. China will urge the U.S. to repay the debts, and the U.S. will accuse China of lending to the U.S. with bad intentions. The U.S. will not return the money. China will start a war, and the U.S. will already be well prepared for it.

The second option: China can opt to say no.

The consequence: China will be demonized.

The best option: Make good use of the U.S.'s relationship with Europe by having Japan purchase the U.S. debt, and thus affecting the manufacturing sectors of Europe and Japan. The U.S. will slowly reduce its pressure against China when faced with contradictory situations between Europe, Japan and the U.S. Then China can use its foreign financial stashes to purchase more gold reserves, leading to China having the ability to deal with the U.S. banknote crisis in future.

It is possible that the U.S. will start a war with Iran to divert attention (China's military power is not strong enough to maintain its foreign interests; therefore it will purchase gold reserves instead of natural resources). China's foreign investments will be affected. How badly will China be affected depends on China's economic development and the readiness of its army.


近期以来,中美之间政治经济热点不断涌现,例如:气候大会事件、伊朗问题、美国向台湾出售武器、美国总统接见达赖喇嘛、谷歌事件、利率问题等。那么,美国向中国频繁出手的原因是什么?美国的国内政治经济问题决定了美国的对外政策。

  一、美国的目的

  作为头号强国,美国的主要目的是保持美国对其他国家的绝对优势,维持世界唯一超级大国的地位。美国现在面临的主要困难是由于受到国际金融危机与长期海外作战的影响,经济实力相对下降,不能支持美国政府完成上述任务。因此,发展经济、改善民生是美国目前的首要任务。

  为了发展经济,美国首先改组了银行,目前,金融机构的债务已转换为美国政府的债务。

  为了发展经济、改善民生,美国需要通过医改法案,需要重建制造业强国。

  所有的这一切都需要钱。

  钱从哪里来?

  一则增加税收;二则增加借款(美国预算赤字将达到1.6万亿美元)。

  但是,在经济恢复增长时期增加税收,不利于经济恢复,所以,最好的选择是增加借款,为了达到这一目的,美元不断升值,给别人造成美元是一种良好投资工具的假象。

  那么,谁有能力借钱给美国呢,中国、日本、英国等。

  二、美国的策略

  美国对中国采取了软硬两手策略。

  先采取了软的一手,美国总统奥巴马亲自来中国说了许多好话,美国议会、美国舆论积极配合,要求中国按照美国的步骤借钱给美国。中国政府面对已借给美国高达1.5万亿美元的公私债券,看到美国连续增加美元的供应量,美元会贬值的风险,没有同意。

  美国随后想起了曾经采取的另一手。2008年10月,美国政府威胁将向台湾出售爱国者导弹和预警飞机。随后,他们达到了目标:中国曾经一个月购买了659亿美元美国国债,按照当时国际金价,这笔钱可以购买2500吨黄金。当然,为了安抚中国,美国财政部长保尔森没有忘记在2008年11 月,慷慨的赠送中国为世界经济领袖;美国没有忘记,利用来自于西方的众多金融权威及其中国弟子们,尤其是某国际投行参股的国内券商,群起而忽悠——美国国债是最安全的投资,中国将受益于债券价格的上升和美元可能的升值。

  于是,相同的事情又出现了。美国宣称为了保卫台湾的和平,向台湾出售武器,并且宣称台湾军事力量仍不够,仍应出售更先进的武器;为了宗教自由,会见达赖;为了人权,谷歌掀起一场有关互联网自由的全球辩论,从而让中国难堪;为了自由贸易,对中国钢铁等产品征收高达289%的反倾销税;哦,还有军力报告、人权报告、汇率报告。

  当然,只要中国不按照美国的步骤购入美国国债,还会发生许多事情。

  三、中国面临的选择

  下策:听从有的专家建议,跟美国硬对抗成本太大,花钱,买美国国债换平安,中国按照美国的步骤大量购入美国国债,美国满意,然后给中国红萝卜。

  后果:1、美国借到钱后,大力发展军力,改善民生,保持头号强国的地位。

  2、美国借到钱后,印钞票,金融机构的债务转换为美国政府的债务,向中国转嫁危机。

  3、浅层的金融危机向深层的美元纸币危机发展,由于人民币没有足够的官方黄金储备的抵押,国内将出现极端的通货膨胀。

  4、中国要求美国还钱,美国说中国为恶意借款,不还钱,中国要打,美国已作好准备。

  中策:中国可以说不

  后果:中国被妖魔化

  上策:充分利用美国威胁利诱欧洲、日本购买美国国债,打击欧、日制造业,欧、日、美产生矛盾的机会,逐渐减轻美国对中国的压力,以结余的外汇储备主要购买实物黄金,保持对冲未来美元纸币危机的实力

  美国可能发动伊朗战争转嫁危机(以结余的外汇储备主要购买自然资源不如购买实物黄金的原因正是因为中国军力不足以保护海外利益),影响中国海外利益,至于影响到什么程度,要看中国的经济发展及军力准备。

  高山
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