Watch Out for America’s Export Plan

Published in China Daily
(China) on 25 May 2010
by Hou Yanfang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Mark Frank. Edited by Juan Bernal.
On May 24, the second round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue was held in Beijing. Fifty representatives of more than 40 Chinese and American government departments participated by discussing issues related to both foreign strategy and economics. This undoubtedly drew international interest.

By necessity, this year’s dialogue will touch on a great number of issues. In terms of the economy, American officials said that the discussion will have four main focal points: breaking down trade and investment barriers, promoting powerful economic recovery and balanced expansion, promoting a more open, flexible, and market-oriented financial system, and strengthening the international financial structure. But what we will be focusing on is America’s “export plan.”

During his State of the Union address at the beginning of the year, American President Barack Obama mentioned an ambitious goal of doubling national exports within five years. Without delay, American Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke revealed a “National Export Initiative.” Since then, American leaders have mentioned this export plan on various occasions, and Secretary Locke paid a diplomatic visit to China to discuss such exports. When all this is said and done, what does America’s export plan mean for the Chinese economy?

From the American domestic standpoint, trumpeting the export plan is intended to stimulate economic growth and counter high unemployment rates. As Obama said, for every billion dollars in increased exports, 6,000 American jobs are created. If this export plan is realized, 2 million jobs will be created within five years. Increased exports mean increased production, and increased production will consequently speed up the pace of America’s economic recovery. But in the end, the basic purpose of America’s proposed export strategy is to guarantee its place at the forefront of the world market and to ensure its ability to compete. As Obama once declared, by doing this America will “make this century another American Century.”

We know that America was once the world’s number one exporter. From the 1940s to the 1980s, products labeled “Made in America” were popular around the world. Strong exports secured America’s position as a world superpower. America was unchallenged in nearly every aspect including politics, military capabilities, technology and culture. During the past 20 years, following adjustments in American production and changes to the international economy, America not only lost its place as the largest exporter, but also became one of the largest importers. Yet, a starved camel is still bigger than a horse, and if America experiences a revival economic-movement, making use of its incredible technological abilities and industrial base to implement this new strategy, its determination and potential to resuscitate its export ability cannot be underestimated.

In the past, trade between China and America has been flawed and uneven. China wants the United States to provide it with more than basic machinery and farm produce because, as Wen Jiabao once said, “the Chinese can’t always be sitting on airplanes eating soybeans.” China also wishes that America would relax its control over exports of new high-tech products and give the Chinese things that they really need.

Unfortunately, on one hand Americans complain that China has the better end of the deal, while on the other hand America strictly limits its exports of high-tech products to China, asking that China open its markets in other directions instead. In fact, this export strategy is dictated by America’s trade philosophy. Historically, while America has claimed to have the world’s most open trade system, at its core, it has never truly implemented free trade. Domestic measures that America uses to solve international issues, including the U.S. Trade Act’s Provision 301, are a big bat that America wields to implement its unilateral goals in the international arena. When the bat is swung, who wins and who gets hurt? It goes without saying.

To deal with America’s export plan and trade philosophy, we need to consider how to protect our own export position and national interests.


注意美国的“出口计划”

5月24日,第二轮中美战略与经济对话在北京举行。有中美两国40多个部门近50位负责人参加的、将“战略问题”与“经济问题”套在一起进行的这轮对话,无疑将受到全世界的高度关注。

此次对话的主要议题必然涉及多个方面。在经济方面,据美国官员透露,双方讨论的焦点可能集中在反对贸易和投资壁垒,促进经济的强劲复苏和更平衡的增长,促进更灵活、开放和以市场为导向的金融体系,加固国际经济和金融结构等4个关键领域。然而,我们将关注的是,美国的“出口计划”。

今年初,美国总统奥巴马在其国情咨文中提出了一个5年内出口翻番的雄心勃勃的目标。紧接着,美国商务部长骆家辉提出了“全国出口计划”。此后,美国领导人在不同场合重申这一“出口计划”,前不久骆家辉来中国访问时更是大谈对华出口。那么,美国的“出口计划”对中美经贸关系以及对中国的经济究竟会有些什么影响呢?

从美国国内的情况看,其高调提出“出口计划”,意在刺激经济增长,应对高失业率。如奥巴马所说,出口每提高10亿美元,在美国国内就会创造约 6000个就业机会。以此,如实现“出口计划”,5年内将创造200万个就业机会。与此同时,出口可以带动制造业,进而加快美国经济复苏的步伐。

而从根本的目标来说,美国提出的出口战略最终为的是确保美国产品在全球市场领先地位,确保美国的国际竞争力,即奥巴马所说的“确保21世纪仍然是美国的世纪”。

我们知道,美国曾是世界第一出口大国。从上个世纪40年代到80年代,“美国制造”风靡全球,强大的出口实力奠定了美国超级大国的地位,使之在政治、军事、科技、文化等方方面面拥有无可挑战的话语权。近20年来,由于美国产业结构的调整,也由于全球经济形势的变化,美国让出出口第一的座次,转而成为进口大国。但“瘦死的骆驼比马大”,一旦美国重振雄风,凭借极强的科技能力和工业基础,其落实战略目标的决心不可低估,其再次形成的新出口实力尤其不可低估。

过去,中美之间的贸易两国都认为不均衡,不够完美。中国人希望美国不要总是只给普通机械产品和农产品,总是让中国人“坐在飞机上吃大豆”。而是希望美国在高新技术产品方面放松管制,出口那些中国确实需要的东西。可惜的是,美国人一方面抱怨中国贸易顺差大,一方面却严格限制对华技术出口,只想让中国在其他方面放开市场。其实,美国的这种出口战略是其“贸易哲学”所决定的。历史上,尽管美国口头上自诩有“世界上最为开放的贸易体系”,但从骨子里讲,美国从来没有实行过真正意义的自由贸易。包括“301条款”等等用美国的国内法处理国际贸易问题的措施,是美国单边贸易行动的大棒。大棒挥舞之下,谁得益,谁受损,不问可知。

面对美国的“出口计划”和“贸易哲学”,我们必须考虑如何维护自己的出口地位和国家利益。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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