America’s New Position and the Challenge It Poses to China

Published in Lianhe Zaobao
(Singapore) on 1 June 2010
by Zheng Yongnian (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Edward Seah. Edited by Alex Brewer.
The U.S. has recently published the new National Security Strategy of the United States, and President Barack Obama's positioning of the strategy is to "maintain America's position as a global leader."* This is not too hard to understand, and there have not been any major changes to it. No matter what strategic terminologies were used, the strategies that the preceding U.S. administrations used were all to maintain America's global dominance or leadership. As the sole hegemony, the U.S.' greatest national interest was to maintain this status. The methods employed by the preceding presidents, however, were varied. For example, President George Bush Jr. abided by unilateralism while Obama abides by multilateralism. However, this is not an absolute. The only reason unilateralism and multilateralism exist at the same time was that the key issues at different times were different.

In the new National Security Strategy document, the greatest change is America's new positioning on China. For the first time, the document called for China to take up a responsible leadership role. During the later stage of the Cold War, America's positioning on China was to counter the former Soviet Union's "potential" allegiance. After the Cold War ended, America's positioning on China changed according to the changes in the objective circumstances, from the "enemy" and "competitor" of the earlier days to the likes of "stakeholder," "responsible stakeholder" and "responsible superpower" in recent years.

G2 Cannot Be Further Formalized

Certainly, the U.S. has given this role to China in view of its own national interest. The U.S. is aware that "the burdens of a young century cannot fall on American shoulders alone — indeed, our adversaries would like to see America sap our strength by overextending our power." With this awareness, the U.S. has to adjust its relationships with other emerging superpowers, which include China, and reposition the international roles of these nations. Therefore, the document mentioned that the U.S. has to "build a stable, substantive, multidimensional relationship with Russia," reiterated that it is establishing a strategic partnership with India, and said, "We welcome Brazil's leadership." At the same time that Obama expressed to China that the differences on human rights issues between the two nations "should not affect their cooperation based on mutual interests," he has also declared that America will monitor China's military modernization plans and be prepared with countermeasures. As apparent from them replacing G8 with G20, the U.S.' adjustment of its positioning of these emerging nations had in fact begun long ago.

In recent years, the greatest change in the Sino-U.S. relation has been nothing more than the formation of what people call the G2. But to many, China, to a large extent, is a "passive G2." The Chinese officials also do not acknowledge the G2. In reality, the G2 cannot be further formalized. Looking at its framework, China is only a helper in the internal matters of the G2, and is placed in an unfavorable position. Because the U.S. is at the top of the framework, China in reality has only responsibilities and no leadership rights. The U.S. and China have to cooperate on international affairs, and at the same time, the U.S., in executing its policies, also has to give China some space to fulfill its international responsibilities, for example, increasing China's limits of authority by the World Bank and the International Monetary Foundation. However, because the U.S. has the right to veto on many key areas, it can choose whether or not to fulfill its requirements to China, and China does not have any actual restrictive powers on the U.S.

Such a situation arose mainly because China's power remains incomparable to America's. Even though China's economic strength is growing, it still lacks the capability to fulfill its international responsibilities, much less exercising its leadership rights. This is because, even though it exists within the same framework as the U.S., China, to a large extent, still needs to fulfill its international responsibilities through a system that the U.S. has established. It is hard to imagine that China is able to enjoy international leadership rights through such a system.

Another reason why China is not able to accept the G2 officially is that it recognizes that China and the U.S. are not able to decide on international affairs. Not only is this not in line with China's goal of "democratizing of international affairs," by doing so, China will also face immense international pressure.

China Needs to Consider its International Role Once Again

However, the understanding of a "passive G2" is also not precise enough. The G2 is a product of an objective change in the international framework but does not change with people's subjective will. The actual origination of the G2 framework is not solely due to China's rapid development, but also the result of China's strategic choices. Since the opening up of China, the nation has decided to join an international system that is led by the West, particularly the U.S. This is China's structural safeguard for its "peaceful emergence" or “peaceful development." There are many flaws in this system, but China does not want to challenge it outside the system, but to attempt to change it from the inside. China has already begun to play an increasingly important role within this system. Subsequently, China's rapid development indicates clearly its rise in status within the system, forming the G2 framework that we see today.

Whatever it is, the G2 reflects the structural changes of international politics. America's new positioning of China (as well as other nations) is a requirement of this new objective framework. What about China itself, then? It is very obvious that China needs to rethink its international role.

First on the list is China's international position. Traditionally, China's international position is that of a developing country. Today, China has certainly not yet become a developed nation, but it can no longer simply position itself as a developing nation. This is because China cannot avoid shouldering some global responsibilities being placed on it within the international power framework. Acknowledgment of the traditional "developing country" label is not simply an objective reflection of China's level of development of its economic society but also a political and strategic consideration, namely a need for national security and to fight hegemony. Similarly, there is a need to reconsider this acknowledgment now, not simply because of China’s economic development, but also because of strategic and political needs. No matter what China's actual capability is, from the expectations of the international community, the international responsibilities that China has to shoulder has far exceeded the perimeters of that of a developing nation.

China is also facing the new problem of superpower diplomacy. During the Cold War between America and the Soviet Union, the purpose of superpower diplomacy was to vie for international spaces in either the American camp or the Soviet Union camp. Things are different now, however, because China and the U.S. exist within the same system. Even though China is still a long way off from being comparable to the U.S. in terms of power, China and the U.S. are the most closely matched. Japan is under America's (military) wing, and the European Union is, after all, not a sovereign state. This increases the complexity of China's foreign diplomacy. As a responsible superpower, China should be responsible to the entire system, but the one that is standing at the top of this system is the U.S. Therefore, some people cannot distinguish between responsibility to the system and responsibility to the U.S. The superimposition of these two types of responsibilities should be implemented for the stability of this system, regardless of whether the U.S. or China stands at the top of this framework. These two types of responsibilities are not the same thing, however, because the interest of the framework and that of the nation's are not completely consistent. The interest of the framework coincides much greater with America’s interests than it does with China’s. Simply put, this system was established under the leadership of the U.S. Being in the same system but having different national interests at the same time determined the existence of cooperation and the conflicts between China and the U.S.

Handling common problems under the same system requires China and the U.S. to at least have common values and a consensus on the methods for handling problems. If there is no consensus, however little, on this level, not only will it be hard to resolve common problems, it could even intensify conflicts to a level more serious than the tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. During the Cold War, both America and the Soviet Union had their own camps, and other than intimidating each other with nuclear weapons, the two powers had no substantial relationship between them. This sort of relationship is certainly dangerous, but there were very little interactions between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, and everyday conflicts were minimal as a result.


China and the U.S. Are Already Very Mutually Reliant

The structural changes in international power affect the Sino-U.S. bilateral relationship. In this bilateral relationship, China and the U.S. are already very mutually reliant, especially economically. The bilateral relationship is also becoming more international, which is to say that how China and the U.S. handle their bilateral relationship will have a huge effect on the entire international community. The bilateral relationship in areas like investments, trade, exchange rates, military matters and diplomacy will produce great external effects. This requires the two nations to handle these issues within the structure of international relations and not just bilateral relations.

This structural change will surely also affect China's relationships with developed and developing nations. Traditionally, developed nations are more often in the American camp, and all this while, they ruled the world together with America. Now, they suddenly discovered a nation that is different from the U.S. standing on top of them, being able to play a role that is more important than theirs. On many occasions, the roles of these nations are declining. There are even occasions where their influence in international affairs is negligible. This could be seen at the Copenhagen Climate Summit, where China, together with the U.S. and some key developing nations, played decisive roles.

China's relationships with developing nations are also experiencing major changes. The difference in standards between developing and developed nations remains extremely huge, and it is expanding. This determines the contradictions and conflicts between these two types of nations. No matter what angle from which one looks, the level of agreement developing nations have for China exceeds that of what they have for the U.S. This is not only because "developing nation" is China's traditional identity, but in terms of interests, China is also closer to developing nations. Under such circumstances, if China is not careful, it will, consciously or unconsciously, be "pushed out" to step up as the leader of developing nations. This was also reflected at the Copenhagen Summit, where China was "made" the leader of developing nations, vying for "leadership rights" with developed nations of the West. This resulted in dissatisfaction among other developing nations. This meant that China had unintentionally shouldered a responsibility that it should not and does not wish to shoulder. Traditionally, China has been fighting for the democratizing of international order. But today, when China has begun to get closer to the top of the system, how can China become a level of democracy that can influence the international order?

As mentioned earlier, the U.S.' new position on China is based on America's interests. China certainly cannot shoulder a leadership role that it is not capable of shouldering. Shouldering international or leadership responsibilities beyond its capability will not only impede China's further progress, it will also cause China to be sluggish on the international stage. This is because China emerged within a system that objectively called for its responsibility to reach a leadership role. What should China do? This will be a test for China in a long period of history from now on. This not only involves China's development and all of its diplomatic relations, this also involves the issue of global war and peace.

*Editor's note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.


美国最近公布新的国家安全战略文件,总统奥巴马对美国的战略定位是“维持美国在全球的领导地位”。这并不难理解,也没有什么大的变化。美国历届政府 不管其战略话语是什么,所实施的战略都是维持美国在全球的霸权地位或者领导地位。作为唯一的霸权,美国最大的国家利益便是维持这个地位。但历任总统所使用 的方法可以是不同的。比如小布什政府奉行单边主义,而奥巴马政府则奉行多边主义。不过,这也不是绝对的,单边和多边同时存在,只不过是在不同时期的侧重点 不同而已。

  新战略文件中,最大的变化是美国对中国的新定位,文件首次呼吁中国要肩负起“负责任的领导角色”(responsible leadership role)。在冷战后半期,美国对中国的定位可说是对付前苏联的“准”同盟。冷战结束后,美国对中国的定位一直随着客观情势的变化而变化,从早期的“敌 人”、“竞争者”到近年来的“利益相关者”、“负责任的利益相关者”和“负责任的大国”等。


G2不可以加以正式化


  美国当 然是从其国家利益的角度赋予中国这一新角色的。美国意识到,“新世纪的重担,不能只由美国独立担负。我们的敌人希望见到美国因为扩张太快而耗尽国力”。在 这个认知下,美国就要调整和包括中国在内的其它新兴大国的关系,重新定位这些国家的国际角色。因此,文件提到美国要与俄国建立“稳定、重要的多层次关 系”,重申正与印度建立战略伙伴关系,又说“我们欢迎巴西的领导”。对中国,奥巴马在表示两国间的人权分歧“不应影响在共同利益上的合作”的同时也声言会 监督中国的军事现代化计划并作出应对准备。美国对这些新兴国家的定位的调整实际上早已经开始,从用G20取代G8可以看出。

  近年来,中 美关系最大的变化莫过于人们所说的“G2”的形成。但对很多人来说,中国在很大程度上是“被G2”的。中国官方也没有承认G2。实际上,G2是不可以加以 正式化的。从结构上说,在G2内部,中国仅只是帮手,处于不利地位。因为美国处于结构的顶端,中国的实际情况是,只有责任而没有领导权。美国和中国在国际 事务上需要合作,同时美国也在政策操作层面给与中国履行国际责任的一些空间,如在世界银行和国际货币基金组织提高中国的权限。不过,因为美国在诸多关键领 域持有否决权,美国对中国的要求可以满足,也可以不满足,而中国对美国则没有实质性的制约力。

  这种情况主要是因为中国的实力和美国还是 不能相比。尽管经济实力在成长,但中国本身还缺乏履行国际责任的手段,更不用说领导权了。因为同处一个结构,中国在很大程度上还是需要通过美国确立的体制 来履行自己的国际责任。很难想象,中国能通过美国确立的机制来享受国际领导权?


  中国不能正式接受G2的另外一个因素是中国认识到中美两 大国不能决定国际事务,这不仅和中国的“国际事务民主化”的目标不相符合,而且如果这样做,中国会面临无穷的国际压力。


 但是,“被 G2”的理解也不够确切。G2是客观国际权力结构变化的产物,是不以人们的主观意志为转移的。事实上的G2结构的产生不仅仅是因为中国的高速发展,而且也 是中国战略选择的结果。改革开放以来,中国选择加入美国西方为主导的国际体系,这是中国“和平崛起”或者“和平发展”的结构性保障。这个体系存在着很多缺 陷,但中国并不是要在体系外挑战它,而是力图在内部改变它。中国已经在这个体系内发挥越来越大的作用。进而,中国的高速发展表明中国在体系内的地位的上 升,形成今天所看到的G2结构。

中国需重新思考其国际角色

  不管怎样,G2反映出国际政治的结构性变化。美国对中国(和其 它国家)的新定位是这个客观的新结构的要求。那么,中国本身呢?很显然,中国需要重新思考自己的国际角色。

  首先是中国的国际定位。传统 上,中国的国际定位是发展中国家。今天,中国当然还没有成为发达国家,但也已经不能简单地把自己定位在发展中国家。因为在国际权力结构中所处的位置,中国 不得不负起一些带有全球性的责任。传统的“发展中国家”的认同不仅仅是中国当时经济社会发展水平的客观反映,也是政治和战略上的考量,即对国家安全和反霸 权主义的需要。同样,现在对这个认同需要做重新考量,不仅仅是因为客观经济社会的发展,而且也是战略和政治的需要。不管中国的实际能力如何,从国际社会的 期望来看,中国要承担的国际责任已经大大超越了发展中国家的范畴。

  中国也面临大国外交的新问题。在美苏冷战期间,大国外交是为了竞争国 际空间,即美国阵营和苏联阵营。但现在则不同,因为中美两国同处一个体系。尽管中国离美国力量的距离还非常之远,但目前中国和美国是最接近的。日本在美国 的(军事)体系内部,而欧盟毕竟不是一个主权国家。这就增加了中国大国外交的复杂性。作为一个负责任的大国,中国应当向整个体系负责,但站在这个体系顶峰 的则是美国。因此,一些人就分不开对体系负责和对美国负责两者之间的区别。这两类责任之间有重合,无论是美国还是中国,因为处于体系的高端,都必须为这个 体系的稳定负责。但这两类责任并不是同一件事情,因为体系利益和国家利益之间并不是完全一致的。体系利益和美国的国家利益的一致性要远远大于体系利益和中 国国家利益的一致性。很简单,这个体系是在美国领导下建立的。同处于一个体系之内,但同时又有不同的国家利益,这就决定了中美两国之间有合作,又有冲突。


   要在同一个体系下处理共同的问题,这需要中美两国拥有最低限度的共同价值观和对处理问题的方法的共识。如果这个层面没有一点点共识,那么不仅共同的问题 很难解决,更严重的是冲突会加剧,甚至比冷战时期的美苏关系还要坏。在冷战时期,美苏各有自己的阵营,双方之间除了核武器互相威慑之外,没有其它实质性的 关系。这种关系当然很危险,但美苏双方的互动并不多,日常冲突也因此很少。中美共处一个结构,互动是日常事务。一旦遇到要处理具有全球性的问题,就需要两 国具有一定的共识。这就是为什么在伊朗、朝鲜等问题上,美国近来越来越要求中国和其保持一致。(可以预见,美国的这种要求会越来越多。)尽管中美两国之间 不可能有完全一致的价值(不同的文明、意识形态和政治结构),但那种处理国际问题上的、具有工具性的共识和价值也不是不可能取得的。这就需要两国进行经常 的对话,通过对话达成共识。不过,两国对话达成共识并不是要排挤其它国家的意见,否则就是谁也不想看到的“中美共治”的G2结构。


中美两国 已经高度相互依赖


  国际权力结构性的变化又影响到中美双边关系。就双边关系来说,中美两国已经高度相互依赖,尤其是在经济关系上。但两国 的双边关系也越来越具有国际性,就是说,中美两国如何处理双边关系都会对整个国际社会产生很大的影响。投资、贸易、汇率、军事和外交等等方面的双边关系都 会产生巨大的外在影响。这就要求两国把这些问题放置于整个国际关系的格局中来处理,而不仅仅是双边关系。



  这个结构性的变化也必然影响中 国和发达国家及发展中国家的关系。传统上,发达国家多在美国阵营,并且一直以来,它们和美国一起共治世界。现在它们遽然发现一个和美国很不一样的国家站在 它们之上,能够扮演一个比它们自身更重要的角色。在很多场合,这些国家的作用每况愈下,甚至在一些场合,它们在国际事务上的作用可以忽略不计。这表现在哥 本哈根的气候峰会上,中国和一些主要发展中国家、美国一起起了决定性的作用。


  和发展中国家的关系也在发生很大的变化。发展中国家和发达 国家之间的发展水平还是非常巨大,而且还在加大,这就决定了两类国家之间的矛盾和冲突。无论从哪个角度来看,发展中国家对中国的认同度高于对美国的认同 度,这不仅是因为“发展中国家”是中国的传统认同,而且在利益方面,中国和发展中国家较为接近。这种情况使得中国如果不慎重,往往自觉或不自觉地被人们 “推出来”充当发展中国家的领袖。这也反映在哥本哈根会议上,中国“被”成为发展中国家的领袖,和西方发达国家争“领导权”,结果导致其它发达国家的不 满。就是说,中国不当心承担了一份不应当、也不希望承担的责任。传统上,中国争取国际秩序的民主化,但今天当中国开始向体系的顶端接近时,中国如何作为会 影响到国际秩序的民主程度。

  如前面所说,美国对中国的新定位是从美国利益出发的,中国当然不可以承担一份没有能力承担的领导权,过分承 担国际责任或者领导力既会阻碍中国的进一步发展,也会使得中国在国际舞台上力不从心。不过,因为中国在体系内部的崛起,体系本身客观上也的确在呼唤中国的 责任乃至领导权。怎么办?这是今后相当长的一段历史时期里对中国的考验,这不仅关乎于中国本身的发展,中国所有的外交关系,而且也是世界战争与和平的问 题。
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