Dilma Here, Obama There

Published in Folha
(Brazil) on 25 August 2010
by Fernando Canzian (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fabiana DaSilva . Edited by Gheanna Emelia.
The slow recovery of the American economy had its first anniversary. Since 2009, the country started to dig itself out of the biggest financial crisis since 1930. But the anniversary gift was not a good one. The stock market reflects the gift, with recent data showing that the housing market is far from recovering.

Just as a reminder, it was the puncture in the “real state blister” that shot up the prices on houses and properties throughout the country, making property owners unable to pay their mortgages, creating debts bigger than their own property value and causing them to owe their banks.

As a result, banks made it more difficult to obtain credit, which is required in order to purchase objects such as houses and cars.

And with the stimulus package certainly coming to an end, the private sector is unable to recover.

For example, just like in a team race, the state is trying to pass the bar to the private sector, but it doesn’t have enough energy to keep running.

With the end of monetary help to homeowners who can’t afford to make payments in the refinancing of their properties, the market may collapse again. Home sales dropped 27 percent in July — the biggest fall ever registered.

The economy is showing new signs of exhaustion in other areas ever since the end of the $87 billion stimulus package, which was approved by Congress in 2009.

Also, with the unemployment rate getting closer to 10 percent, the chances of the private sector winning this race are very small.

President Barack Obama has serious problems ahead of him. The Republican Party, the opponent of the Democrats, has a slight chance to win the majority of votes in the House and in the Senate during the legislative elections in November. If that happens, the chances of Obama approving a new package of economic recovery are scarce.

But it’s possible that the Republicans would want to keep the president and the economy on its knees until 2012, with the approach of a new election year.

According to a new poll, the majority of the population disapproves of the Obama administration — 20 months after the new president took the White House, cheered on by 2 million people in Washington.

In Brazil, the economy can be a winning factor in the elections for Lula and Dilma.

For Obama, the picture is this: less time and less hope.


Dilma cá, Obama lá

A fraca recuperação da economia americana fez aniversário por esses dias. Foi quando o país começou a sair, em 2009, da maior crise financeira de sua história desde os anos 1930.

O presente de aniversário pelo primeiro ano não é bonito. As Bolsas mundias já refletem isso.

Dados recentes mostram de forma inequívoca que o principal problema, o colapso do mercado imobiliário, está longe de sanado.

Para recordar, foi o estouro da "bolha imobiliária" nos preços dos imóveis que levou mutuários a ficar inadimplentes com bancos, com dívidas maiores que o valor de suas casas.

Com isso, os bancos se recolheram, secando drasticamente o crédito ao consumo (que, por sua vez, responde por mais de 70% da formação do PIB dos EUA).

Todos os grandes pacotes de estímulo estatais adotados desde então estão chegando ao fim. E a atividade do setor privado não dá conta da recuperação.

É como numa corrida em equipe. O Estado tentou passar o bastão para o setor privado, mas ele não teve forças para seguir em frente.

Com o fim da ajuda trilionária a quem estava sem condições de pagar financiamentos imobiliários, o mercado residencial voltou a entrar em colapso. As vendas de casas caíram 27% em julho, o maior tombo já registrado.

Outras áreas da economia também dão novos sinais exaustão com o fim dos efeitos do pacote de estímulo de US$ 787 bilhões aprovado pelo Congresso em 2009.

Com o desemprego rondando os 10%, há pouquíssimas chances de a área privada conseguir levar essa corrida adiante.

Barack Obama tem, portanto, sérios problemas pela frente. O Partido Republicano, adversário dos Democratas, tem chances de reconquistar nas eleições legislativas de novembro a maioria na Câmara e no Senado.

Se isso ocorrer, são mínimas as chances de Obama aprovar um novo pacote de resgate econômico.

O mais provável é que os republicanos mantenham o presidente e a economia de joelhos até 2012, quando haverá eleições presidenciais.

Segundo nova pesquisa, a maioria da população (52%) já desaprova o governo de Obama. Há 20 meses, ele assumiu a Casa Branca ovacionado por 2 milhões de pessoas no Washington Mall.

No Brasil, a economia pode vencer a eleição para Lula e Dilma.

Para Obama, o quadro é de cada vez menos tempo e esperança.
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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