Obama Comes Home

The plan for Mr. Obama’s visit is truly short. After visiting India for three and a half days, the United States president is scheduled for not even 24 hours in Indonesia. That is, if it is not again delayed, as happened earlier. From Jakarta he will go on a goodwill mission to South Korea to attend the G-20 meeting for three days then stop by briefly to look at the statue of Buddha in Yokohama, Japan, before returning to Washington, D.C.

The shortness of this plan to visit Indonesia, which was earlier canceled twice, might well be construed as Indonesia’s lack of importance in the eyes of America. However, from the perspective of national importance, this issue is actually more a problem of image rather than substance. Indeed, we ought to be grateful for not being the first concern of the strongest country in the world. As a country whose economic strength is only around four percent of America’s, Indonesia can more easily maneuver in a bilateral relationship with this giant if the decision-makers in Washington, D.C., are not too watchful.

Maneuvering in an asymmetrical relationship such as the Indonesian-U.S. one does indeed require guerrilla tactics. As in the folktales of Kancil (a heroic mouse deer), Indonesia must use cleverness so that it does not become the fawn mouse deer that is squeezed to death in the middle of the hostility between elephants in the forest of global diplomacy. That hostility is indeed heating up between America, which has recently experienced an economic crisis, and the People’s Republic of China, whose economic growth greatly hinges on exports, mainly to America.

It is under these conditions that Obama travels to Asia. To his people, he stated that he will advocate for a world trade structure that is more balanced by asking countries that he visits to open their markets to American products more. This will open employment opportunities in Uncle Sam’s country and increase the printing of the dollar so that its value declines, such that “made in USA” products become more competitively priced.

At the G-20 meeting in South Korea, it can be guessed that Obama will press Chinese leaders to raise the value of the yuan, and that pressure will be totally opposed by the Chinese. The Chinese leaders are worried that raising the price of the yuan will make their exports go down and impede their economic growth.

This dispute has wide effects on the international economy. Europe and other developed countries side with Washington and conspire to unilaterally reduce the value of their currencies. Those who become victims are other countries that do not have enough assets to prevent the increase of the value of each of their currencies, and so their products’ competitiveness in the world market declines. It is not surprising if an economic observer calls this dispute over the world’s economic leadership the flaring up of a world currency war.

Facing this polarization of the world economy, Indonesia must be swift. There is nothing wrong in looking again to the cleverness of the country’s leaders during the earlier cold war era. The advice of Bung Hatta that Indonesia keep a distance from all fortresses, as if “sailing between two rocks” will be fitting, though practiced with modifications to make it “sailing between many rocks.”

The shakiness of the currency war, for example, is a certainty that cannot be avoided. What we can rely on is accurate anticipation, so the global waves that come will not destroy like a tsunami, but will instead be enjoyed as one surfs atop them. This can be done by, for example, paying foreign debts more quickly and spending funds on infrastructure projects when the rupiah is pushed to the top, as well as grabbing investments in labor-intensive industry when the rupiah sinks.

This anticipation can only be carried out well when national leaders can truly monitor global dynamics. This capability cannot possibly be reached without involving oneself in various international forums. Of course it is not involvement as a part of a fighting fortress, but rather involvement as a world citizen who is always trying to facilitate the growth of new agreements to create a future that is more promising.

This position is indeed fitting for a country of intermediate size like Indonesia: big enough to become a respected leader at the level of a regional organization like ASEAN, but not big enough to be considered a threat for the world power. What’s more, at the beginning of next year Indonesia will become the leader of ASEAN and will become the host for the organization’s summit meeting with other world leaders. After that, in 2012, Indonesia will become the host for the meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders in the APEC forum.

So, no need to be disappointed by the shortness of Obama’s visit, even if he does not end up coming. Obama has been scheduled to visit Indonesia every year, until the term of his appointment ends in 2013.