The Dark Side of America’s 2012 Presidential Election

It is unclear whether the health reform has seriously injured President Obama's chances for reelection in 2012, but no doubt the main battlefield of the next presidential election is still the economy and unemployment. The biggest pressures on Obama in the next two years will be promoting the economy and employment. This kind of pressure could possibly cause Obama to shift it onto another country.

On Jan. 19, the U.S. Medical Reform Bill became a hot topic when the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution to repeal it.

Last year, Democrats used their majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate to force through the Health Reform Bill despite opposition from the Republicans. The signing of this bill by Obama was one of the major achievements of his first term as president. However, after last November's congressional elections, the opposition party gained control of the House of Representatives. Therefore, no one should be suprised that the House of Representatives passed a general "repeal" of the Obama Health Care Reform Bill.

But simply passing the House resolution does not mean the Republicans can complete the task of repealing the Health Care Reform Bill. Because the Health Care Reform Bill was signed by Obama to completely "abolish" the bill, Republicans would need to adopt resolutions in both houses of Congress. To override Obama's veto, they would need to have an absolute majority in the House and a minority in the Senate.

While the Health Care Reform Bill has become law, the debate is hardly settled. Both parties are well aware of this. Right now, the Republican House of Representatives passed a resolution promoting the "abolition" of the Health Care Rerform Bill, which has reawakened a debate questioning Obama's achievements. In the Republican view, the majority of American people are against health care reform. Medical reform can become a "political bomb" against Mr. Obama and the Democractic Party.

As the 2012 presidential election draws near, it can be expected that the Republican Party will continue on the health care reform issue and use it against Obama and the Democrats. The Republican Party will likely use its majority in the House of Representatives and its control of the "pocketbook" to obstruct the enforcement of the Health Care Reform Bill. After all, Obama's Bill would invest $940 billion over the next 10 years. Without money, health care reform cannot be finalized.

However, the bad news for Republicans is that support for Obama is picking up. Results published from a recent poll show that support for Obama is more than 50 percent for the first time since mid-2009. The same day, a White House spokesman said Obama is likely to participate in the 2012 election.

It is unclear whether the issue of medical reform has seriously injured Obama's chances in the next presidential election. There is no doubt that the main battlefield of the next presidential election is still the economy and unemployment. If, during the next two years, there is a significant improvement in the U.S. economy and the unemployment rate has decreased, Obama's chance of getting reelected is enhanced. In this context, Obama is expected to take more action to promote U.S. economic growth and reduce unemployment. It may be that the pressure to promote the economy and employment could make Obama "transfer" this pressure to another country — specifically, to another country on the open market, with a balance of trade deficit problems, exchange rate issues and a series of other economic and employment issues. In this regard, other governments, including China, should take precautions.