Saudi Arabia in Bahrain: The U.S. Growing Weaker
The entrance of Saudi forces into the territory of Bahrain, even if under the flag of the Gulf Cooperation Council, is an unprecedented event. The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf was originally established in 1981 by the Arab Emirates, with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at their head, in light of concern about Iran during its war against Saudi Arabia’s ally — the president of Iraq, Saddam Hussein. In actual fact, the Council was a framework for subjugating foreign and security policy of all states to that of the Saudi courtyard. It made up a sort of security zone for the kingdom between it and Iran threatening across the Gulf. The existence of the Council hasn’t led to any ground involvement of a single of the Emirates in doing battle against external enemies. In the Gulf War in 1991, Saudi Arabia served as a tremendous departure base for the coalition troops headed by the U.S.; Saudi units stayed inside their borders and did not cross them for any mission.
Saudi Arabia’s policy of no military presence (not in the context of grappling with Israel — the kingdom took part in fighting against it in all the wars where Egypt and Syria participated) derived from two key factors: preference for the political way by the conservative rulers of the kingdom, and weakness of their army. Two of them are now taking a test that is likely to develop into an important milestone in the politics of the Middle East: The current Saudi king, who is 88 years old, and similarly, the crown prince, 87 years old, both suffering from poor health, apparently no longer do the meaningful decision-making in Saudi Arabia. An assessment could be made that someone very close to the palace — most probably Prince Bandar bin Sultan, serving in the post of the national security adviser — is the one to stand behind the dramatic decision.
This isn’t a dramatic step with respect to the size of the corps; after all, doesn’t it just involve some tens of armored vehicles and required supplies? This is a political move intended to signal to the entire world that the kingdom would not allow the Shiite majority in Bahrain, supported by Iran and Hezbollah, to remove the Bahraini king, the pro-Saudi one, and expose the Saudi oil fields to hostile elements.
Moreover, most of the population in the nearby Saudi oil regions are Shiites, and the creeping of riots into Saudi Arabia might jeopardize the present regime in Riyadh and also oil supply to the entire West.
As someone well acquainted with the U.S., Prince Bandar hasn’t overlooked the painful blow America brought down on the regime of president Mubarak, a close ally of the two countries — and this is contrary to the indifference toward the slaughter Moammar Gadhafi is executing on his countrymen. The explanation: Libya produces about 2 percent of the world’s consumption of energy; Egypt has no oil. If there's a civil war raging in Libya, then the added intervention of Saudi Arabia (a third important source of energy for the U.S., after Canada and Mexico) in Bahrain, when helping the brutal repression of the insurgents, won’t provoke an unwanted American response.
The Western media also assisted, unwittingly, in backing up the intrusion of the Saudi forces into Bahrain: Over the last days, the reports have been all dealing with the situation in Japan. The happenings in the Middle East have dropped from the main headlines and ceded their place to a new human drama. The timing of the Saudi operation, however, was influenced by the events in Japan in yet another way: Although in the short term Japan’s energy intake will fall significantly, beginning with the reconstruction process the demand for oil will greatly increase. The Saudi oil fields could also become a target desired more than ever by the Iranians. Perception of arrowhead in Bahrain is not that big of a deal for Saudi Arabia, but it most likely prevents the Iranians from making their own attempt to exploit the Bahraini instability in order to “help the rebels out” and station in the island their own armed forces — forces which would be very close to the Saudi fields.
The world is anxiously following the developments in Japan at the moment. But in the Persian Gulf, the last word has not yet been spoken. The continued unrest in Bahrain, along with the possibility of its permeating into more countries of the Gulf, will keep the whole world busy in the coming weeks, at the very least. There’s also the possibility — one that can’t be ruled out — that the Saudi military entanglement with external forces creates a new global hot spot.
The author is a professor and lecturer in the Middle Eastern Studies Department at Ariel University Center.