Is Libya Becoming a “Hot Potato” for the West?

Until today, how could we have seen the Western countries’ situation in Libya? In two words, they accidentally picked a “hot potato.”

At the beginning of military intervention in Libya, there was no doubt that western countries were optimistic. They flattered themselves to consider that with the bombing of bombs and cruise missiles, the Gadhafi regime would be in total disintegration, and that the opposition faction would take control.

However, things didn't turn out like they had wished. Western countries encountered a lot of trouble in Libya. Not only was Gadhafi not easily defeated, but also the opposition faction had internal conflict; Libyan warfare appeared to be a seesaw battle, and the Western coalition fell into a dilemma.

Gadhafi’s military force was insignificant once the Western coalition sent ground forces; the scene of them commanding troops into Iraq could be replayed. What was frustrating was that United Nations hadn’t authorized such action. As the big brother, the United States didn’t want to follow the same old disastrous road as in Iraq and Afghanistan, but an air raid would not be the fundamental solution.

What’s more important was that the Western countries’ military intervention activated Libya’s tribal politics, which had been a “large marsh” in its history. Don’t you see that small countries like Afghanistan could drag down two “superpowers?” Thus, it’s obvious that no matter how powerful a country is, once trapped in such “mire,” it will find it hard to extricate itself. This time the United States learned its lesson.

Libya is a clan-based country. Intimate relationships held together by blood, history and culture cannot be easily shaken by other factors. The once largest tribe in Libya had been in conflict with Gadhafi for a long time, but the Western “bomb” pulled them together; they formed an alliance of tribal politics and nationalism, which was the largest trouble to western countries.

But the problem is more complicated. In terms of Gadhafi’s opponents, their reformists include representatives of tribal interests, Islamic extremists and even al-Qaida members. For this reason, the U.S. secretary of defense called them a “mob.” Even if they can get ahead, the possibility of whether they can co-lead Libya remains a problem. In addition, western countries have no idea about how the country will develop in the future.

Now the United States has decided not to get in the middle of the mess, and NATO took over the command, which means it took over a hot potato. As for France, Italy and the United Kingdom, they all have a North Africa complex and hope to realize their old dreams in Libya. However, whether their dreams will be realized or not depends on the answer of Libyan people — in other words, it relies on whether tribal politics can accept them or not.

In today’s world, completely negating humanitarian intervention is unrealistic, but the intervention should follow certain laws and be executed moderately; it should be double cautious about military intervention. This world is very complicated, and military means can achieve momentary pleasure or solve a one-time trouble, but the consequent problems usually cannot simply be solved by military means, and they usually bring disastrous damage to local civilians.

At present, dividing Libya into two is under consideration. This kind of political arrangement reflects great power politics after all, and the results can be imagined. In history, the situations of East and West Germany and also North Korea and South Korea need no explanation. The division of Yugoslavia into six countries brought how much happiness to its citizens? Nowadays, more and more people there have started to remember Tito and the former Yugoslavia. Such cruel reality has brightened their vision.

The problem in Libya will finally go on the road of dialogue and negotiation, which should be under international supervision and should let Libya’s citizens make their own decisions. In the growing globalized economic development of today, exercising international morality is not impossible, but such exercises should happen according to a premise of respect and uphold every country’s sovereignty; it should also happen under full consideration of each country’s specific situation, otherwise new troubles will be made. This is a profound lesson Libya’s situation has given to international society.