Looming Threat of Ground Troops Introduces New Phase of Action toward Libya

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 21 April 2011
by Yuan Xue (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liangzi He. Edited by Alex Brewer  .
As of April 19, the air raid on Libya has been ongoing for a month. On the same day, the United Kingdom decided to dispatch a military team of more than 10 people to Benghazi, playing the role of military adviser. However, NATO’s actions continue to get stuck in a bottleneck; its commander Brigadier Mark van Um admitted at Brussels headquarters that NATO’s air raid on Libya was limited.

A German researcher at the Marshall Fund in Washington D.C., Ian Lesser, said to a correspondent that such action may indicate a new phase of action toward Libya.

Last week, the United Kingdom and France urged NATO consecutively to strengthen the effort in cracking down on Libya. Outsiders speculate that the appointment of military advisers by the United Kingdom aims at seeking new ways to help the opponents break the deadlock.

But there’s a great conflict between NATO members. A researcher from the European Union Institute for Security Studies, Daniel Keonane, said to a correspondent that only seven out of 28 NATO member countries had this intention. He predicted that more countries would offer help to the opponents separately.

In addition to military intervention, diplomatic mediation will not stop. April 19, chairman of the Libyan oppositions’ National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul, and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi initiated a meeting; on the morning of the 20th, the chairman was in France meeting the French president Nicolas Sarkozy for the first time.

Outsiders Conjecture That a New Phase of Ground War Is Approaching

The British Foreign Office announced cautiously on April 19 that the dispatched military advisers were to help the National Transitional Council improve the level of military organization, communications and logistics, better improving humanitarian aid and providing medical help. They emphasized repeatedly that they would not train and arm the oppositions.

Right after this, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe expressed that France was against dispatching ground troops to Libya.

Although all parties are avoiding leaving the image of directly involving themselves in Libya’s civil war, the action of the United Kingdom on the 19th still caused the speculation from outsiders that western countries were joining the ground war.

Until now, the use of only air forces has been obviously ineffective, said by Director of EU Institute of Security Studies lvaro de Vasconcelos, hoping the Gadhafi administration will solve the conflict politically is absolutely unrealistic.

The British Daily Telegraph cited the words of a British government official on 19th that the dispatch of military advisers to Libya was just the first step; there would be more measures after this, among which would possibly include British special forces attacking Gadhafi and arming the oppositions.

Daniel Keonane thought that the key issue of the Libyan situation was how NATO would strengthen its attack, including by dispatching ground troops and using helicopters; but the huge conflict between NATO members could cause more countries to support the opposition on their own like the United Kingdom did.

U.K. Military Dispatch Tests the United Nations’ Determination

After one month of air raids, western countries found that it was hard to be effective using that approach alone. France admitted on 19th that they underestimated Gadhafi’s army’s resistance power.

lvaro de Vasconcelos said that they thought the dispatch of ground troops to Misurata was the solution. He analyzed that the forerunner who dispatched ground troops was the European Union At the beginning of April, 27 countries in the European Union consented that under the premise of the United Nations’s mandate, they would send a humanitarian relief mission to Libya, and under necessary conditions, they would use military means to guard. There are two objectives of the military escort mission: one is to secure the supply transport to Libya, especially Misurata, and the other is to protect the safety of the evacuated personnel from Misurata.

However the United Nations hasn’t made any similar requests. If they make the request, the European Union will be the first western military forces that land in Libya after the start of the Libyan war. But Daniel Keonane thinks that this will be a rather small scale “pure humanitarian” action and won’t exercise any influence on the current Libyan military stalemate; he estimates that the number of E.U. troops will be within 1,000.

Nevertheless, NATO doesn’t welcome the proposal of an E.U. dispatch. On 19th, Mark van Um claimed that the current access points (navy, army and air force) for humanitarian personnel in Libya were all open, and it’s not necessary to develop new military actions.

On the same day, NATO’s spokeswoman Oana Lungescu announced that NATO would hold an ambassadorial level coalition conference with the European Union in several weeks to discuss the Libyan situation; she also said that the degree of information sharing between European Union and NATO was unprecedented.




21世纪经济报道

特派记者 袁雪 布鲁塞尔报道

4月19日,对利比亚的空袭已经进行了一个月。就在当天,英国决定向班加西派出十余人的军事小组,担当“军事顾问”角色;而另一方面,北约行动则继续遭遇瓶颈,北约联合行动指挥马克·范乌穆准将在总部布鲁塞尔承认,北约对利比亚的空袭行动具有局限性。

“这或许意味着对利比亚的行动进入新的阶段”,位于华盛顿的德国马歇尔基金会研究员Ian Lesser对记者表示。

上周,英国和法国曾先后敦促北约加强对利比亚打击力度。外界认为,此番英国决定派出“军事顾问”,正是为了寻找新的手段帮助反对派打破僵局。

但北约内部对于是否出动地面部队分歧巨大。欧盟安全研究所研究员Daniel Keonane对记者称,目前北约28个成员国中仅有7个国家有此意愿。他预测,“未来会有更多国家单边对反对派提供帮助”。

军事打击以外,外交斡旋没有停止。4月19日,利比亚反对派国家过渡委员会主席穆斯塔法·阿卜杜勒·加里尔与意大利总理贝卢斯科尼进行会面;20日上午,他还在巴黎与法国总统萨科齐进行首次会谈。

外界猜测地面战“新阶段”将近

4月19日英国外交部的用词非常谨慎,称派出的军事顾问团队将帮助国家过渡委员会提高军事组织结构、通讯以及后勤水平,以更好地进行人道主义救援,提供医疗帮助;并反复强调称,不会对反对派进行训练和武装。

紧接着,法国外交部长阿兰·朱佩也表示,法国反对向利比亚派遣地面部队。

虽然各方都尽量避免落下军事力量直接卷入利比亚内战的印象,但英国19日的举动依然引起外界对西方可能加入地面战的遐想。

“到目前为止,仅使用空中力量显然没有效果”,欧盟安全研究所主任lvaro de Vasconcelos表示,而同时寄望于卡扎菲政权的政治解决方案“是完全不现实的”。

英国《每日电讯报》19日援引英国政府官员的话称,向利比亚派出军事顾问小组只是第一步,接下来还可能有更多举措,其中或许包括英国特种部队攻击卡扎菲军队,以及武装反对派。

Daniel Keonane认为利比亚局势的关键在于北约将如何加强打击,包括派遣地面部队和动用直升机都在讨论范围之内,但北约内部的巨大分歧,会导致更多国家像英国一样,单方面对反对派提供支持。

派兵压力考验联合国“定力”

西方国家在对利比亚进行一个月的空袭之后发现,仅仅依靠空中打击难以奏效,法国19日承认,之前低估了卡扎菲军队的抵抗能力。

“我认为向米苏拉塔派遣一到两支地面部队是解决之道”,lvaro de Vasconcelos说。他分析称, 已经在派遣地面部队上走在前面的,是欧盟。4月初,欧盟27国外长同意在取得联合国授意的前提下,将对利比亚派遣人道主义救援团,并在必要情况下,使用军事手段进行护卫。这支军事护航团有两项主要任务,保障对利比亚,尤其是米苏拉塔的供给运输以及保障撤离米苏拉塔人员的安全。

但截至本报截稿时,联合国并未提出类似要求。若联合国提出要求,欧盟将成为自利比亚战争以来,首支踏上利比亚土地的西方军事力量。但Daniel Keonane认为,这将是规模相当小的一次“纯粹人道主义”行动,并不会对利比亚目前的军事僵局产生任何影响,他预计欧盟派兵规模将在1000人之内。

而北约则不欢迎欧盟派兵的提议。19日,马克·范乌穆准将称:“目前人道主义人员进入利比亚海陆空通道都是敞开的,没有必要展开新的军事行动”。

同日,北约发言人瓦娜·伦杰斯库宣布,欧盟与北约将在未来数周内,召开大使级联合会议,商讨利比亚局势,“欧盟和北约进行磋商和信息分享的程度,是前所未有的”。
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