Presidential American: Obama Preserves his Good Luck

Did John McCain, the Republican claiming the White House, commit a tactical mistake by being publicly endorsed by George Bush, who will be packing his bags at the end of the year? Should the Senator from Arizona appear in public with Bush, who continues to set records for unpopularity, even though they seem to share the same vision on security for the United States?

The danger was real; so real that George Bush hurried to take the initiative in urging voters not to “judge John McCain by the current president when voting in November.” If the worry of some Republicans in particular is justified, their fear of the candidate being forgotten by the American media after a campaign for the primaries is equally important. “It’s going to be more difficult” to maintain national visibility because Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will become the focus of the media’s attention in their battle to win the Democratic nomination, said McCain. Is true that the long struggle in the opposition camp will offer McCain weeks of relative tranquility. Furthermore, it is not inconceivable that these Democratic primaries could leave his opponent sufficiently weakened for the final showdown. But conversely, there is no indication that this epic battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will not serve to boost the morale of the winner, and to better prepare him or her to face the final stretch. In either case, the nomination for the Democratic Party remains suspenseful; a show that appeals to Americans, who have a taste for a well-orchestrated spectacle. Of course, John McCain has an edge over his opponents, after almost being defeated. His victory will give him time to concentrate on other issues, like the unification of his party before the November election. But he must feel a little melancholy after essentially leaving the field open to his Democratic rivals, who will have the attention of Americans for several weeks. This greater attention given to the Democratic Party is due, no doubt, to a low intensity Republican campaign that was settled relatively quickly. This is a situation that the Democratic camp, of course, will take advantage of, the benefit being that the party can spend more time convincing, and perhaps winning, the hearts of undecided voters.

That said, what are the chances of the various candidates to succeed George Bush in the Oval Office? John McCain, according to a survey by the Washington Post-ABC News, lead the Democratic candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in the presidential election. However, the Vietnam War veteran started the race for the White House with major handicaps.

The first is his consistent, public support for George Bush. This support, far from helping the Republican candidate, will instead serve Bush, who would like to build up his waning popularity through this reconciliation. His second handicap: this veteran of the Vietnam War represents a certain past. How many Americans associate themselves with the Vietnam War? If chosen president, this maverick septuagenarian would be the oldest man elected to a first term in the United States. This is not necessarily an advantage for him. It seems that many Americans believe that he is best equipped to fight terrorism. He made this topic a campaign theme, promising that under his guidance, the United States would not surrender in Iraq. The question is whether the majority of Americans are willing to vote for such a position, while at the same time blaming Bush for initiating the Iraq war in the first place. Access to the White House is especially difficult for McCain because it is rare for a major political party to win the presidency for three successive terms. And in this context, it seems that perhaps Bush, Jr. ignored reality by failing to prepare the political field for a Republican successor. Bush has so far ignored the calls of his fellow citizens who are openly opposed the Iraq war, as if there were no consequences for his behavior on the image of the Republican Party.

Can Barack Obama become the first African-American president of the United States? One cannot say that he does not have the means or the intellectual and managerial capacity, what with the senator from Illinois going from victory to victory in the race for the American presidency. This race is something that would have been hard to imagine a few decades ago, when a black candidate couldn’t get beyond the stage of the primaries. If the Senator from Illinois manages to open the doors of the American presidency, it will show how the United States has made progress in terms of racial tolerance, and confirm all the good that we think of democracy. But its one thing to become the first black president, and quite another is to govern successfully. However, Obama does not rule out the possibility of forming a ticket with Hillary Clinton if he wins the primaries. This might be a useful option for Obama, if elected president of the USA. Having a defeated opponent as a running mate could ensure a smooth governance; the question is whether one of the losing Democrats would be willing to play a supporting role.