What Are We to Expect From the American Elections?

The primary election campaign in the US, as they say, is picking up pace. It is already known that the Republican Party nomination will go to John McCain. The Democratic Party nomination is being contested by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, with the latter having a higher probability of success. It is often said that if Obama gets the nomination, McCain will certainly defeat him. But to crown the 71 year old Vietnam War veteran the next president would be rather premature. It should be noted that Ronald Reagan was 69, and seen as an old man, when he took the reins of power in 1981. It would be wise to expect that any of the three remaining candidates have the same chance of winning the presidential election.

McCain is infamous for being a “good friend” of our country. He not only promises to continue the foreign policy set out by Bush: NATO enlargement, active participation in the “color revolutions”, placement of anti-ballistic missile technology in Poland and the Czech Republic, the Kosovo adventure; but the old man also promises to drive Russia out of the G8, to set up a “League of Democracies” that almost seems to take the place of the UN Security Council and would like to speed up the process of bringing Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.

Clinton hasn’t said much about us. She just wishes both the US and Russia to limit their nuclear arsenals. But her close working relationship with Madeleine Albright and Richard Holbrooke, doesn’t give much hope to the possibility of a warming of relations between our countries. Quite the contrary, she dared to insultingly criticize speeches by Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev. Compared to his competition, Obama seems almost a dove. There isn’t much to his critique of Russia; at least for the time being. He also promises to work on nuclear disarmament. In the future it would be wise to expect radical ideas coming from his direction.

If everyone decides upon “containing” and “punishing” Russia, then more than a few problems will be created as a result. Either way, it would be wise to expect a more problematic relationship with the US and the West as a whole. But under no circumstances must we surrender anything and certainly not surrender. We have enough strength and will to not only withstand any pressure, but to repay symmetrically. The Russian State has strengthened itself in the last couple of years and the chance to weaken it from within is small. We’re one of the major exporters of energy, upon which Europe is very dependent. Neither gas nor oil is going to get cheaper any time soon. Also, a possibility of a “gas-OPEC” should not be put out of the question. Without Russia it is very hard to combat issues like limiting weapons of mass destruction, fighting terrorism and combating climate change.

Finally, we have and will continue to have the means to inflict upon the US “unacceptable losses”. It is impossible to ignore this fact. If everyone tries to think about “containing” and “punishing” Russia, they will produce a lot of problems. Not only for us, but also for themselves. We will be pushed into closer cooperation China, Iran, Venezuela and other foes and enemies of the “Democratic League”. We could even call ourselves the “League of Sovereign Democracies”.

It should be noted that the West has enough adequate people with whom it is possible to have a constructive dialogue. Until quite recently it was possible for them to contain and check their colleagues who have half-baked ideas. At one time a harsh anti-Russian position was expected from George W. Bush, Romano Prodi, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and others. All of them came, and are coming, to a more balanced political position. Why shouldn’t a new American president not do the same?

If it turns out this way, then like I previously said, we know how to repay in kind.