Barack Obama’s Victory and Hillary’s Defeat

One day Barack Obama’s two girls, Sasha and Malia, 6 and 9 years old, may want to run for the President of the United States. And on that day, they will be able to thank Hillary Clinton. “How the primaries end isn’t important,” the Democrat explained Tuesday. “Senator Clinton has confronted the myths, broken barriers, and changed the America in which my daughters and theirs will grow up.”

This manner of projecting the legacy of his rival is of course a way of writing her off. Officially, no one has declared Hillary Clinton politically dead. But nevertheless, her role is in the future, not in the present.

As predicted, Hillary Clinton took the Democratic vote in Kentucky. As predicted, Barack Obama won Oregon that same day. And as predicted in Iowa, the place of his first victory, to signify his coming full circle, the Illinois senator suggested without saying that his course is well defined. “With 35 years of public service, Senator Clinton has never abandoned her struggle for the American people. I admire her courage, her commitment, and her perseverance.”

The victory wasn’t as easy as Barack Obama had hoped, but the rules of math are what they are: the new votes have allowed him to overcome the cap of the majority of the elected delegates. To attain the nomination, there is still evidently the task of uniting the majority of the superdelegates of the party. And nothing in the foreseeable future would prevent a majority of them rallying behind Obama. One week ago, Hillary obtained a sizable victory in West Virginia, comparable to that of Kentucky. But in the interval, of the 26 superdelegates that declared their preference, 22 favored Obama.

The preparations to shut Hillary down are therefore already underway. It is more than a question of time, but also manner.

Three states (or territories) must still give a verdict: Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. One argument to settle: that the votes in Michigan and in Florida that Hillary said she won even if the party has said that the votes were taken too early. But above all, one dilemma to think about for Barack Obama: to show that he is accommodating towards an adversary who refuses to abdicate, which runs the risk for him appearing “too weak”, a reproach that often sticks to the young Senator. But on the other side, to seem to lack respect for Hillary’s tenacity risks turning his back on electors, in the moment when he needs each and every one of them, and while they grimace more and more in the face of his candidature.

But his acts speak for him. His team has already formed a national Democratic committee which serves to launch his campaign against Republican John McCain. Already, Barack Obama only has eyes for Florida, the state that has become a symbol of the national election to come, and where he needs to prove that he can change the “blue state”.

Another sign: even tentatively, the lists are started to circulate for possible Vice-President candidates. Hillary constantly puts her argument in the forefront: the white and working class population will not follow Obama against McCain, which would shift the swing states. Ideally, the Vice-President would therefore be a white woman, experienced, and coming from one of these states.