What is Happening to America?

In addition to our previous article on this topic entitled, “The fall of American monopoly,” we continue today by commenting on internal developments and events in the US. We also comment on the rise of states or non states who are trying to take a stand and benefit from America’s steps backward, so as to draw a new multi-polar world order. Richard Haas, one of America’s strategic thinkers, calls this a “polarless world” in which America is not the only player who sets the rules and outcomes of the game.

Perhaps the most eloquent example of America’s recession lies in the gist and vibrancy of President Bush’s 2002 speech, when compared to his eighth and last speech last week at the United Nations. In the 2002 speech he was paving the way for the Iraq war. Bush was defiant as if lecturing a world he had divided as: “Either with us…or against us.”

He appeared much more humble in his last speech, as he is now besieged by three wars overseas, none of which he has been able to resolve, as well as battling with the worst internal economic crisis since the Great Depression, all of this amidst party divisions and differences in a decisive presidential election year in which Bush’s legacy will have long-term effects.

Bush’s speech to the UN sounded pale and unconvincing as he was talking about Russia’s violation of the UN Charter in its invasion of Georgia. The speech was supportive of the UN, the most important international organization that should play an effective counter-terrorism and counter-extremism role in the 21st century. However, he forgot that, before Russia, he had himself violated the charter when he waged wars of choice rather than of necessity, without the legal cover of the Security Council. He also led the first war of the 21st century, ignoring the UN’s charter of peaceful conflict resolution and the non-use of force, or even the threat of use of force, to resolve conflicts. Bush insisted on appointing John Bolton, one of the “neo-con” hawks, as US representative to the UN despite Congress’s rejection of the nomination.

For those who watch the evolution of events in the US, since the beginning of the Bush administration in January 2001 to this day, cannot help but observe how the US appeared in its historic moment in a one-polar world, on in which Washington rules, marginalizing others, and marches on, regardless of what allies and friends want. And the 9/11 bombings, as well as the popular and political support of all of the Congress, the media and the allies, and their siding with wounded America, helped US audacity and the appearance of a “Bush doctrine” that sanctions pre-emptive wars and one-polar war decisions.

Predictions about America stepping backwards have long been exaggerated and untrue, starting with the historian Paul Kennedy’s book on “The rise and fall of super powers” to many books and studies that have appeared in the last two years covering the American recession brought about by the difficulties of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and “the war on terror”, and the daring of others, whom Fareed Zakaria, the Indian-American scholar, calls in his book:” A world beyond America”, “the rising powers”, like China, India, Brazil and other non-state powers.

The US will remain the world’s most influential power and will prevent any state or group of states from forming a more powerful axis. Despite the fact that the defense and security budget and the expenses of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, as well as the war against terrorism, exceeds $700 billion, that is more than the entire world’s defense expenditures, and although the US Gross National Income reaches $14 trillion, or a quarter of the world’s income, America seems in recession, and its historic moment appears as if bygone. Furthermore, this US recession touches on various sectors, ranging from the inability to resolve wars and defeating “Al-Qaeda”, to failure in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US also failed in the peace process between Arabs and Israel as well as in the Iran nuclear program. Even the only success of the Bush administration has now crumbled, with North Korea’s ceasing to cooperate with the IAEA, and its resumption of its nuclear activities.

The American recession goes on to include economic, cultural and even artistic recession with Bollywood in India now producing more films than Hollywood. There is also a challenge from satellite stations and non-governmental organizations. And the economic crisis storming America today is reminiscent of the Great Depression, with the US appearing more economically reliant on foreign powers investments and funds, especially by the Gulf States and China. It has also lost much of its shine in its soft power as a defender of human rights, and the US example is no longer convincing in the fields of civil and constitutional rights, after the “Abu Ghraib” and Guantanamo Bay scandals, as well as the laws on eavesdropping, detention and deportation.

To go back to the beginning we ask the big question: “What is exactly happening to America?” Is the short era of American hegemony, since the end of the Cold War, finally over? And is a new multi-polar world order taking shape? Or will it be a polarless order? Legitimate questions they are, and for which only time will provide answers. Nevertheless the stark reality remains that the era of US hegemony is gone and there are states and non-states that are now striving to ensure that.