China vs. the U.S.: Who’s Afraid of Whom?

Sino-American relations have been attracting worldwide attention since the new year, and they have been filled with twists, turns, and surges.

The U.S. has a large number of desires that make China unhappy: it wants to impose anti-dumping duties on China, to sell weapons to Taiwan, to meet with the Dalai-Lama, etcetera.

China also wants to impose anti-dumping duties on the U.S., and it also wants to sanction weapons-related firms. China does not want to follow the U.S.’s demands, be they regarding the exchange rate of the Chinese Renminbi, environmental issues, the Iran issue, or any of many other issues.

Both parties are unyielding. There are people in the U.S. who feel that Obama has already shown much good will, yet China is still uncooperative and not respecting the U.S. Though the U.S. is strong, it cannot do without the respect of others. Meanwhile, in China, there are people who feel that Obama is showing good will because it benefits the U.S. Whether or not China cooperates, China has to act for its own benefit. The Chinese also want to be strong and respected.

The U.S. is not afraid since it is the world’s leader. Yet, saying that the U.S. is not afraid is untrue. Obama said that the U.S. will not be second. If the U.S. didn’t feel threatened, there would be no need to make this statement. The U.S.’s $1.56 trillion deficit this year shocked the world. Even Obama admitted that if the deficit issue is mishandled, there is a possibility that the American economy will change from “a crisis to a disaster.” The deficit is way beyond the safety range. Apparently, America’s position is weakened.

China has achieved second place to the U.S. in many aspects, though it is not anywhere close to first. Still, China is not afraid. Through many years, it has become much stronger. So should it be afraid? As it was weak in the past, it has to persevere. The U.S. wanted to create a G2, yet it became an uncooperative “partner” later. From this incident, China learned that it could no longer wait passively. In spite of this, China is afraid. This is because there are numerous internal problems, such as the income disparity, industrial structures and so on, which need to be resolved urgently. Stability is required when building a nation, and to eliminate instability requires courage and wisdom.

The U.S. is pragmatic: for example, Hillary Clinton did not talk about human rights issues when she wanted China to buy U.S. debt bonds. This all boils down to the political reality at that point in time. When politics requires that there be no mention of the exchange rate of Chinese Renminbi issue, there will be no mention, yet when politics requires it to be mentioned, this will be used as a weapon. This tactic is evident in the sale of weapons to Taiwan, U.S. economic protectionism, and so on. It is no surprise that all these things are done for the national benefits of the U.S., or as a political necessity for the Democrats, or both.

China, on the other hand, must deal with current issues. Since its abilities are limited, it will do its best to tolerate whatever situations occur. As China becomes stronger, it is natural that it should take issues head on. Since core national interests are concerned, it is to be expected that China will not allow others to interfere with the approaches it has taken to resolve environmental issues, foreign policy issues with Iran, and Renminbi exchange rate issues.

It is justifiable that the U.S. and China are keeping their national interests in perspective.

Thus, this results in both countries finding themselves in conflict with each other. Judging from history, the current situations of both countries, geopolitics and global strategies, such head-to-head conflicts are unavoidable, and will continue in the long term.

The U.S. is the world’s number 1, yet China is emerging, burdened with huge amounts of U.S. debt. America and China? In the end, who is afraid of whom?

It is thought that U.S. will start a war with China to rid itself of the crisis, but this is not the case, at least not for the near future. It is also thought that China will rid itself of U.S. debt and threaten the U.S. Yet this is also not the case. The U.S. is afraid. China is also afraid. If both countries decide on such actions, not only will the U.S. and China suffer, the rest of the world will also be badly affected.

America’s economic growth is dependent on China, while China is dependent on the U.S. for its financial power on foreign exchange and key markets. Both parties are interdependent. Therefore, it is not feasible to sacrifice global capitalism for the sake of minor issues like the environmental or internet issues. A lose-lose situation is definitely something that both do not hope for.

That is why, in reality, neither party is afraid of each other. Yet there is still some degree of fear, with some situations causing more unease and others less. The most critical point in this relationship is interdependency.

The countries have to protect their national interests while concerning themselves with their realities and futures. And the policy makers of these countries, depending on whether they are opportunists or politicians, will determine whether Sino-U.S. relations can be maintained at an equilibrium.