Watch Out for America’s “Combination Punches” on Trade Issues

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 19 April 2010
by Liu Jianhua (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Qiuming Liao. Edited by Jessica Boesl.
Recently, instead of its previous “get tough” approach to trade with China, the U.S. has adopted a multifaceted approach of “combination punches” using tough and soft, overt and covert tactics. Although the tension has eased, it is still very likely that America will keep punching, even with heavy blows. Therefore, China should remain on high alert.

Talking about softness, the U.S. delayed the decision on whether to brand China “a currency manipulator.” The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also confirmed, on April 17 at the Canton Fair, that China and the U.S. have reached a preliminary agreement through negotiation — Chinese foreign trade policy and the exchange rate would remain basically stable. However, the U.S. has no intention of giving up its tough approach on issues such as Chinese export subsidies. There are still senators threatening to unveil a bill to impose trade sanctions on China at any time. The U.S. overtly expresses its willingness to negotiate on various occasions. Geithner’s visit to China is one example. However, the U.S. also works covertly with the E.U., Japan and India behind China’s back, in an attempt to set up an “international united front” to challenge China’s current exchange rate policy.

We can say that America’s “combination punch” is caused by the diversity of interests in America and the complexity of Sino-U.S. relations. So far, it is mainly the traditional manufacturers, labor, Congress and the Department of Commerce who have been calling for a “get tough” approach to China. Because the U.S. has relative superiority in Sino-U.S. economic trade relations, it can use our dependence on “Made in China” in the U.S. market to launch an attack. However, China’s economic strength has increased rapidly since entering the WTO. The U.S. would have lot to worry about if it stubbornly keeps being tough. Therefore, the U.S. has no other choice besides “combination punches,” which best conform to its current national interests.

Obviously, “combination punch” does not mean that the U.S. will not punch on trade with China. Its strength will not weaken either, but the tactics are more diverse and subtle than before the financial crisis. Meanwhile, under the banner of “restoring global economic balance”, the U.S. also purposely encourages other countries to put pressure on China to internationalize the Sino-U.S. trade issues. It makes China not only have to face the pressure from America, but also international pressure as well, thereby making it harder for China to deal with American protectionism.

However, if the U.S. continues to stick to its “get tough” policy, China would face limited options in this trade bout. Now, the “combination punch” has broadened China’s coping strategies. I think that, in addition to conventional coping strategies such as speeding up industrial restructuring, strengthening proprietary intellectual property rights of exports and expanding domestic demand, we can also take some unconventional means. In American society, given that the U.S. focuses on manufacturing jobs, China can encourage domestic enterprises to invest in America and create employment for local people — especially in northwestern America, which is the manufacturing center and fortress of trade protectionism. China can expand procurement, trade and economic exchanges in some of the states, such as Illinois and Pennsylvania, keeping their distance from trade protectionism to China, at least not to echo some people’s tough approach.

Similarly, at the level of government dialogue, China needs to highlight its recent monthly trade deficits, calling for America’s attention that its imports and exports to China have moved toward balance on the whole. China also needs to make it clear to America that China will never relax its vigilance and will take countermeasures against America’s disguised “combination punch.” If the U.S. made sanctions unilaterally, China would retaliate against the U.S. This would bring serious consequences to the U.S. and the global economy. Using an “international united front” to pressure China would only be America’s wishful thinking.


Note: The author is an associate professor at the Institute of International Studies at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law.


刘建华:警惕美国在贸易问题上的“组合拳”
• 2010-04-19 08:03
• 环球时报
近段时间以来,美国改变了先前在对华贸易上一味强硬的做法,转而使出软硬兼施、明暗结合和多管齐下的“组合拳”。虽然在对华贸易上,气氛有所缓和,但美国人继续出拳甚至重拳出手的可能性并未减弱,对此仍应抱有高度警惕。

  从软的一方面讲,美国宣布推迟决定“中国是否操纵人民币汇率”,我国商务部17日也在广交会上证实,中美经过协商已初步达成协议,中国外经贸政策和人民币汇率保持基本稳定。不过,美国并不打算在中国出口补贴等问题上放弃强硬手段,仍有议员威胁随时会出台贸易制裁议案。从明的方面讲,美国宣布愿在各种场合谈判,盖特纳访华即是一例,但美国也背着中国,悄悄做欧盟、日本、印度的工作,企图组建反对中国现行汇率政策的“国际统一战线”。

  可以说,美国打“组合拳”是美国国内利益多元化和中美关系复杂性所致。迄今为止,要求对华强硬的主要是美国传统制造业的厂商、劳工及国会和商务部。由于在中美经贸关系中,美国仍处于相对优势状态,尚可以利用“中国制造”对美国市场的依赖主动向中国发难。不过,中国入世以来经济实力快速提升,美国要是一味强硬就要顾虑很多,只得选择在对华贸易上打出一套“组合拳”,这样才最符合美国当前的国家利益。

  显然,“组合拳”并不意味美国放弃在对华贸易上出拳,其力度也不会减弱,只是使用的手段较金融危机前更多样、更精妙。同时,美国还有意通过打“恢复国际经济平衡”的旗号,鼓动其他国家对中国施压,将中美贸易问题国际化,使中国除了应对来自美国国内的压力外,还要应对国际社会压力,从而增加中国应对美国贸易保护主义的难度。

  不过,美国若是一味强硬,中国接招的选择面会比较小,现在打组合拳,反而给中国的应对策略拓宽了思路。笔者认为,除了加快产业结构调整、加大培育出口品自主知识产权的力度、扩大内需等常规应对思路外,我们也可以采取一些非常规性手段。在美国国内社会层面上,鉴于美国关注制造业工作岗位,中方可鼓励本国企业到美本土投资,增加当地人就业;尤其是美国东北部这个制造业重镇和主张贸易保护的堡垒,中国可以通过扩大对其中一些州(如伊利诺伊、宾夕法尼亚州)的采购和经贸往来,让这些州与对华贸易保护保持距离,至少不附和一些人的对华强硬主张。

  同样,在政府对话层面上,中方还需强调近期中国也出现月度贸易逆差,提请美方注意对中国外贸进出口总体上已趋于平衡;让美方明确,遮遮掩掩地打“组合拳”,并不会让中国放松采取反制措施方面的警惕。如果美方可能采取单方面制裁措施,中国实施贸易报复,会给美国和世界经济带来严重后果,使通过“国际统一战线”来施压中国成为美国的一厢情愿。▲(作者是中南财经政法大学国际问题研究所副教授。)

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