Sino–U.S. Relations: In Terms of Common Interests

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 30 September 2010
by Guo Bingyun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Qu Xiao. Edited by Amy Wong.
The Sino-U.S. relationship has long been the focal point of Chinese people’s attention; and it has become ever more interesting since America’s arms sale to Taiwan earlier this year, Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, and issues regarding the South China Sea and Yellow Sea. At present, the Diaoyu Island is drawing intense attention and has triggered battles of dispute between China and Japan, behind which we can also see America’s influence.

In fact, America has never left China’s diplomacy alone since the day New China was founded. Sino-U.S. ties kept growing stronger and stronger since China opened up, entering the international community and forging an increasingly close relationship with the rest of the world, especially in terms of the economy. After the Cold War, the relationship with America, without any doubt, became the foundation of China’s diplomatic relations: A stable Sino-U.S. relationship ensures the stability of China’s diplomacy; a troublesome Sino-U.S. relationship adds to the unpredictable. With China’s rise and the increasingly common interests between the two nations, the Sino-U.S. relationship is taking on a whole new look. Although there have been troubles from time to time, the Sino-U.S. relationship will develop toward a bright future with China’s growing national strength and, in particular, the increasingly common interests between the two countries, despite the diminishing yet never distinguishable troubles and conflicts.

Common Interests and Relations between Nations

No one could imagine how two nations would develop their relations without any common interests, let alone cooperate with each other, either during the Cold War then or during the post-Cold War now. (Some scholars argue that now is the post-post-Cold war period. Consensus as for what is the mark of the end of the post-Cold War period, however, has yet to be reached.) The most striking feature of the Cold War period is that the contention and rivalry over ideology was its outpost and battlefield. In fact, ideological interests are also part of international interests, only not the core of it in most cases. During the Cold War, however, ideological interest overrode economic and security interests. At that time, cooperation between nations was usually based on a shared ideology, which became the precondition of developing international relations. This means the first thing that came into the minds of those policymakers was ideology instead of the economy or security. As a result, countries that share the same ideology generally keep far better relations with each other than with those who differ, which was a universal phenomenon during the Cold War.

After the Cold War, economic and security interests again replaced ideology to become the decisive factors in international relations. Generally, how good the relationship between two countries is is proportional to how many common interests they share (how many fields in which they cooperate) and how important those interests are (for example, how much weight China’s rise holds for Japan and America in terms of security interests).

To develop international relations with another country, the number of common interests matters, and the importance of them matters even more. Take as an example the common interests between the U.S. and Israel, which are low in number and cannot compare to those between America and China. But as everyone knows, as one of the closest allies of the U.S., Israel regards its common interests with America with a great deal of importance.

Present Situation of Common Interests between America and China

China and America have common interests in a wide range of fields, as the leaders of both countries have said. What are those fields, then? We can make a list without even thinking: finance and trade, non-proliferation (regarding North Korea and Iran nuclear issues), counter-terrorism, global warming, cultural exchange, etc. The two nations have especially wide and strong ties in the economy and trade.

With so many common interests, why does the Sino-U.S. relationship suffer from fluctuations like that of the law of value? Is it because there really is a huge gap of misunderstanding between the two nations? Or is it because the Sino-U.S. relationship is still immature? Neither. The root cause is that the importance of those common interests is not all that satisfying.

One of the most obvious examples concerns China’s sovereignty over her territory. America and China not only have no common interests in this regard, but they run in starkly opposite directions. At the beginning of this article I mentioned the arms sale to Taiwan, Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, America’s interference in affairs regarding the South China Sea and the sham battle in the Yellow Sea, and America’s secret support of Japan concerning the Diaoyu Island dispute. All of the above concern China’s core interests, despite the consensus of giving consideration to each other’s core interests reached between the two nations last year when Obama was paying a visit to China.

But the reality is that on the one hand, China poses no threat to America’s national security in terms of territory and sovereignty, which are regarded to be America’s core interests. On the other hand, although China holds large amounts of U.S. dollars, to dump them in order to retaliate or punish America would inflict damage to China herself as well, and the result would be “killing 3,000 enemies at the price of the death of 800 soldiers on our side.” In other words, America doesn’t think its common interests with China matter much. Moreover, in the 60 years after World War II, America has been the boss all along, long accustomed to ignoring the interests of small and weak countries. The U.S. is in the habit of neglecting China’s core interests when developing international relations.

Future of Common Interests between China and America

Two big powers can hardly keep any practical cooperation in the field of security without a common enemy. Looking around America’s allies, we can easily see that they are more or less suffering threats from their neighboring areas, near or far, pressing or easing. Of course, only a few of these so-called threats really exist, while most of them remain objective conjectures.

After the collapse of the USSR, China and America have no common enemy in the foreseeable future. China still hasn’t come up with any idea as to how to deal with the energy issue, which is one of America’s core interests. Contrarily, with China’s rise, her neighboring countries have persisting worries, and most of them chimed in easily with America in being on guard against China.

The non-traditional security issues such as terrorism, financial crises and global warming are taking an ever more important place on most countries’ agendas. The traditional security issues, however, remain those countries’ top priorities without any doubt. Therefore, although the common interests regarding the non-traditional security issues between China and America are increasing in depth and breadth, America’s core interests haven’t changed much since the collapse of the USSR. China’s rise, however, undermined the mutual trust in military between China and the U.S., and provoked America’s lookout and alert against China.

Summary

As long as America and China take hold of the seats as the top two powers in the world, we can say that no matter how many common interests there are between the two countries, they will still remain unimportant. At present, Chinese officials often say that we should increase the number of common interests between China and America and broaden cooperation. Yet, without any breakthrough in the importance of those common interests, we have no reason to be optimistic about the future of Sino-U.S. relations.

Neither watchwords nor good wishes could alter reality even one little bit. To solve problems, the preconditions and foundations are to first face up to reality.


中美关系一直是中国人关注的焦点,眼下之中美关系由于年初的美国对台军售、奥巴马接见达赖喇叭以及最近之南海和黄海问题,更加吸人眼球,大有火上浇油之势。当下中国人最关注的因围绕钓鱼岛问题而展开的与日本之交锋,其背后同样有美国的影子。

  其实,自中华人民共和国诞生之日起,中国外交就没真正绕开过美国。当中国打开国门与世界之联系,尤其是经济联系日益紧密后,与二战后一直是世界第一大经济体的美国之联系亦日益紧密。冷战结束后,勿庸讳言,与美国的关系一直是中国外交关系的基础;中美关系稳,则中国外交大局稳;中国关系动荡与紊乱,中国外交大局则相对迷离与扑朔。随着中国之日益崛起,随着中国与美国共同日益之增加,两国关系的局面出现了较大之改观。虽然不管是过去、现在以及可以预见之将来,中美关系跳不出时好时坏的圈子,但随着中国实力的增加,尤其是中美两国共同利益之增加,两国间关系友好的波长将增延,而坏的波长将减缩,但不会消失。

  一、共同利益与国家关系

  不管在曾经的冷战年代,还是现在之后冷战时期(有学者认为现在已经是后后冷战时期了,然后后冷战以何为标志,学者们见仁见智,至今尚无定论),无法想象,没有共同利益的两个国家会发展关系,更不用说在某些领域进行合作了。冷战最大的特点是,以意识形态的争论和争夺为前哨和主阵地。其实,意识形态利益同样是国家利益的一部分,只不过在正常情况下,它不可能成为国家利益的核心内容;然而在冷战时期,意识形态的利益却凌驾于经济利益、安全利益之上。冷战时期,国家间的合作通常以意识形态为标的,意识形态成为是否与一国发展关系的前提,国家间关系首先考虑的是意识形态利益而非经济利益或安全利益。因此,冷战时期的普遍现象是,意识形态相同的国家关系要比意识形态相异之国家关系更好。

   冷战结束后,经济利益及安全利益而非意识形态利益,成为国家间关系的决定因素。通常情况是,两国关系之友好程度与两国间共同利益之数量和质量成正比关系。所谓共同利益之数量,主要是指两国共同利益的面,既在多少领域有共同利益;所谓共同利益之质量,主要是指该共同利益在对方中的重要性。比如,中国崛起在美国和日本两国的安全利益中所占之分量。

  发展两国间的关系,共同利益之数量固然重要,但共同利益之质量更为重要。美国与以色列之共同利益,就其面而言,非常窄,美以两国共同利益之面断不可能与中美两国间的共同利益相提并论;然而正如世人所熟知的那般,以色列是美国最亲近的盟友之一,其关键是该对双边关系之共同利益有非常厚实的质。

  二、中美共同利益之现状

  诚如中美领导人在很多公开场合所言,两国在许多领域有共同利益。两国在哪些领域有共同利益?不经任何思考就可以列出以下清单:金融和贸易领域,核不扩散领域(朝核问题和伊朗核问题),反恐方面、全球气候变暖方面,以及诸如文化交流等方面。尤其是在经贸领域,两国的合作广泛而深入。

  有如此诸多共同利益的中美关系,为何会出现中国人所熟知的价值规律示意图般之上下波动?难道真是两国间存在巨大的误解?难道真是中美两国关系还没成熟?非也,究其根本乃两国在共同利益的质方面不尽如美国人意。

  其突出表现是,在事关中国核心利益的领土和领海及其他主权方面,美国与中国不但毫无共同利益可言,实为大相径庭乃至背道而驰。文首提及之对台军售、会见达赖喇叭、插手南海事务、黄海军演及中日钓鱼岛争端中暗中支持日本,无一不事关中国之核心利益。虽然在去年奥巴马访华之际,中美商定,照顾彼此的核心利益。

  然而现实情况是,一方面,由于中国在事关美国最核心利益的领土和主权等传统安全方面,手中无任何牌,另一方面,尽管中国手中握有的大量美元,然而为了所谓的报付或惩罚美国而抛出,中国遭受的损失恐怕不止“杀敌三千,自损八百”这个比例。换而言之,中国与美国的共同利益,并不足以让美国胆战心惊,望而却步。再加上,在二战结束后长大六十多年的时间里,美国长期做老大,习惯了无视小国及弱国的利益,因此在与中国这个目前仍然比它弱得多的国家交往时,仍然习惯性地漠视中国的核心利益。

  三、中美共同利益之前景

  大国与大国间,若无共同敌人的安全威胁,很难在传统安全领域展开实质的合作。放眼当下美国所有之盟友,都或多或少地受到其周边国家远近不一、缓急各异之威胁。当然,这种所谓之威胁,有些是客观存在,更多的则是主观臆测。

  苏联解体后,在可以预见之将来,中美之间将不再面对共同敌人的威胁。在事关美国核心利益的能源领域,中国亦无计可施,办法不多。相反,随着中国的持续崛起,由于中国周边国家对中国的担忧持续存在,加上美国自己对中国同样心存忧虑,因此美国与中国的周边国家中的绝大多数在防范中国的问题上一拍即合。

  非传统安全领域中的恐怖主义威胁、经济尤其是金融危机、全球变暖等问题虽然在各国议事日程中的位置不断上升,然而毋庸置疑的是,传统安全在国家议事日程中仍然占有绝对优先权。因此,虽然中国在非传统安全领域内与美国的共同利益之广度和深度皆在增延;但在美国的核心利益方面,在苏联解体后并无质的改观。相反,中国的崛起削弱了两国在军事领域的互信,增加了美国对中国的防范。

  小结

  不论是眼下还是不管多久之未来,只要美国和中国处于老大与老二的位置,我们可以断定,不论两国共同利益的面多广,数量多么惊人,两国共同利益的质不可能很高。当下中国政要常言应扩大中美两国的共同利益,由于在质方面难有突破,因此对于未来中美关系之走向,我们没有理由乐观。

  口号归口号,希望归希望,两者皆改变不了现实。正视现实是解决问题之前提和基础!
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