The Voters’ Revolt

In 1994 Bill Clinton managed to survive the loss of the double majority in Congress. But if polls are right and the Democrats lose the House of Representatives next Tuesday, Barack Obama’s situation will be worse because of the American people’s angry state.

Americans are planning to punish the politicians in Washington in the midterm elections on Tuesday, which will renew Congress and state legislatures. They are angry about the economy, especially those who personally felt the blow of unemployment and the foreclosures that swept the country.

The anger extends to a subject that may seem strange to a European but is relevant given the context: The budget deficit is considered by public opinion to be one of the biggest issues in the U.S. And the Democrats are being blamed for the “excessive’’ federal spending.

The voter revolt implies a loss for the Democrats in these elections. Obama’s party will lose control of the House of Representatives and may also lose the Senate. For some, this scenario is not any different from the one that Bill Clinton faced in 1994 and 1995, which did not stop his re-election, but there are wise voices that are reminding us of the state of the economy: Obama risks being a single-term president, and the political stalemate may trigger an economic depression.

Even though the Bush era left behind a deficit of $1.4 trillion, and despite Obama’s administration having a plan to reduce it by half — reaching a slightly higher deficit than $800 billion in 2012 — public opinion continues to blame Obama and the Democrats.

The president’s popularity started falling in February 2009 when he signed the economic stimulus package that would have saved global finance. But he continued to lose the support of the poor and the independent voters. At the moment, he counts on the support of 90 percent of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanic voters. But this increasing image of an ethnic nature is more of a problem than an advantage.

The measures that helped families, including the stimulus package and the health reform, were unpopular, since they benefited population groups that do not vote often, but they increased federal spending. This effect was worsened by the populist rhetoric of the tea party, which is radicalizing the Republican Party. Doubts about Obama’s religion and the actions taken during the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico have only reduced the president’s popularity.

The Democrats are paying for the foreclosures, which are hitting the middle class. A million families have lost their homes, and many saw the value of their houses drop down below their mortgage. This impedes mobility and affects entire communities: The rebellion that is being expressed by the tea party is based particularly on this phenomenon.

The icing on the cake is the “robo-signing” scandal, as the press dubbed it. Pressured by delays in payments, the banks accelerated foreclosures, which in certain states can go ahead without a court order. The result is a wave of messed-up foreclosures, with many families losing homes to which they were entitled. The banks came out scorched for the first time, even after the Wall Street scandals. Meanwhile, there is good news about the economy, which grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the second semester. But it will be too late for many politicians who will lose their posts on Tuesday.