America’s Empty Promise to India on U.N. Security Membership

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 10 November 2010
by Wen Wang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Alice Cwern. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
On the last day of his visit to India, President Barack Obama announced his support for India to become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. The announcement made everyone in India elated and excited. Indians consider it a long-awaited, notable victory in foreign affairs. However, to Americans, it is just an empty promise that costs them nothing.

This is a short-term strategy of Obama’s: With a simple verbal declaration, he hopes to get India’s support at the G-20 summit in South Korea and at the APEC conference in Japan. A few days ago, most countries criticized America’s massive production of its currency; however, India reversed its position and instead supported America’s decision just yesterday.

Yet, even with a cunning plan, America fails to resolve its fundamental difference with India over the membership issue. Unless India follows in the footsteps of Japan and agrees to become a vassal for America to carry out its foreign tactics, it will be a contradiction for America to support India in joining the Security Council. For a long time, America has remained silent on this issue because they know that once they announce their opposition, India will definitely not listen to them in the Security Council. America and India’s disagreements on greenhouse gas emissions, energy, food safety and trading are far greater than with other countries.

From reading all the commentary published in New Delhi over the past two days, it seems that they have taken Obama’s diplomatic terms seriously and think that his empty promise will really bring them one step closer to permanent member status on the Security Council. In fact, it is not up to America to grant entry to the Security Council; not only do all council members have to vote on it, but all members of the United Nations also participate in the decision. Even though America has verbally given its support, there are many unforeseen things that could reverse its promise.

Five years ago, America announced its support for Japan to join the Council, but Japan was not admitted. People in Japan were upset about the decision; however, not many people believed that America was sincerely upset.

In recent years, India has been working very hard on gaining permanent member status in the Security Council, as people all over the world believe that a reform of the United Nations is under way. However, it is also very clear to India that it is not the only country that has its eyes on membership. When a country joins the Security Council, not only does it change the power distribution within the United Nations, it also affects the political balance within the region. Therefore, a country who wants to join needs to be supported not only by the United States, but also by its neighbors.

It is a more troublesome task than getting America’s support, but a must for joining the Security Council. If India is really serious about gaining membership, it must follow these firm rules.

As reform of the United Nations has not yet materialized, it is hard to say which countries will get support from the leading countries. As the only hegemonic country in the world, America clings to power more than anyone else. Even though India is on its side at this moment, will America continue to trust India? Will it let down its guard toward India?

Even though it was just a diplomatic gesture, it was beneficial for India that Obama expressed his support. Yet, India should realize what is really going on, or else it may lose its focus and create tension in the area while forcefully pursuing its goal. India will not only worry its neighbors, but will also wear itself out.


在访印的最后一天,奥巴马一句“支持印度成为联合国常任理事国”,令整个印度欢欣鼓舞。印度人以为,这是翘首等待多年的重大外交胜利,但对美国人来说,这只是一张空头支票,不需要任何成本。


  这只是奥巴马的一次短线操作:以简单的口头宣示换取几天后接连在韩国召开的G20峰会、在日本举行的APEC会议上印度对美国的支持。几天前,美联储大开美元印钞机,绝大多数国家财长都在抨击美国,而昨天,印度却对美国这样做绕着弯给予了支持。


  然而,美国策略上的狡猾掩盖不了美印在“入常”立场上的根本分歧。除非印度愿意像日本那样,成为美国全球战略的附庸,否则,“入常”始终是美印之间不可调和的结构性矛盾。多年来,美国对此保持缄默,原因就在于,一旦拥有否决权,印度肯定不会在安理会内听从美国。美印在温室气体排放、能源、粮食安全、贸易等问题上的分歧远远大于美国与其他大国的关系。


  从这两天的印度舆论来看,新德里可能把奥巴马的外交辞令过于当真了,以为他的口头支持就是印度离“入常”实质上走近了一步。事实上,“入常”根本不是美国一家说了算,不仅安理会其他常任理事国要投票,联合国所有成员国也要表决。而且美国口头上支持了,可以通过暗中操作将其承诺打水漂的手段有很多。


  5年前,美国口头上全力支持日本“入常”,但最终没有成功。日本很伤心,但很少有人相信,美国因此真心像日本一样沮丧。


  这几年,印度在“入常”上非常活跃,这主要是因为整个国际社会都认为,联合国改革势在必行。但印度也清楚,想“入常”的国家远不止印度一个,任何国家入常改变的不仅是联合国的权力结构,而且会改变其所在地区的政治力量平衡。因此任何想“入常”的国家,面临的不仅是美国这样的大国的支持,而且还要被所在地区的国家所接受。


  这听上去很麻烦,比搞定一个美国难多了,但这却是“入常”的实理。印度真想“入常”,就得这样扎扎实实地去做。


  现在联合国改革的整体形势远谈不上明朗,各大国对支持谁“入常”,反对谁“入常”,也都真真假假,扑朔迷离。美国作为当今世界唯一的霸权国家,对权力的贪恋比谁都重,即使印度暂时与美国完全站到了一起,美国会相信印度将来不会背叛吗?它能不防着印度吗?


  当然即使这样,奥巴马说支持印度“入常”,对印度来说,总比他不说这些话好一些。但究竟好多少,印度确需心中有数。否则不仅印度会迷乱,还可能为了强行追求这一目标,带来地区新的紧张。这会让印度周边担心,印度也终将感到心累。▲ (作者是北京媒体人。)
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