America’s Double-Edged Sword and “Unrequited Love”

Not long ago, during the Indian National Day, the United States formally lifted its limit on the export of technology by Indian defense and aerospace industry companies, in place since India’s nuclear tests began in 1998. The U.S. even removed nine Indian arms sales export companies from its blacklist and welcomed India to the “club” of states that enforce control of arms exports, transforming it from a “punished one” to a “punisher.”

Recently, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke led representatives of over 20 U.S. companies, including Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse and other military enterprises, in claiming that the end of Indian military export limits was “a significant milestone in reinforcing the India-U.S. strategic partnership.”

Many people wondered: “Why is the United States doing so? To vie for the Indian arms market or to contain China?”

As a matter of fact, the United States intends to kill two birds with one stone.

In the first place, it paved the way for U.S. arms manufacturers:

From the time when the U.S. plunged into financial crisis in 2008, U.S. arms manufacturers alone have continued thriving, living a “happy spring.” The Indian arms market is a big pie, and Russia has been its traditional supplier. Now India is seeking to strengthen its military power, cooperating militarily with other states and diversifying military procurement, which is the perfect opportunity for the U.S. to sneak in. Last year, Obama negotiated more than $100 million (126 multi-purpose medium fighters) in military sales with India when visiting the country, but these plans have not been implemented yet. Between Feb. 9 and Feb. 13, India held its 2011 Air Show in Bangalore, and the U.S. hastily announced the end of limits to Indian military exports before the show, which not only highlighted the U.S. effort in winning the huge orders but also emphasized its competition with Russia and France in selling more advanced weapons, including the F-35 fighter aircraft.

Second, for America’s global strategy and geopolitical considerations:

From the view of U.S. mainstream media propaganda, it’s inconceivable to argue that this move was not to hook India in but to contain China. However, America’s attempts are multifold. Economically, it aims to increasingly attract the India market; politically, it can stir up tensions among India, China and Russia through this move, benefiting itself by weakening the trilateral cooperation between the BIRC countries among China, Russia and India. Additionally, from the aspect of the “war on terrorism” in Afghanistan, it wants India’s help.

Apparently, the U.S. is enjoying a beautiful dream. But whether this dream will come true or not depends on many uncertain factors and insurmountable “obstacles,” including the traditional China-India and India-Russia relationships, and its own rivalry with Russia and other countries. If France wants a share, then Russia will not hand over its traditional arms market easily. It is said that Russia distinguished itself at the India Air Show, and it’s possible that India has already negotiated an agreement regarding the most advanced aircrafts with Russia; India has hinted that it is not interested in America’s F-35 aircraft. Some people lampooned America’s plan to surpass Russia in India’s arms market as an “unrequited love,” which is not ungrounded.

(Wang Yusheng, executive director at the Center for Strategic Studies, China Foundation for International Studies; edited by Chen Lu)