The Yemeni President Is Besieged on All Sides

America Is Caught in a Dilemma in the Middle East and North Africa

It has been destined for Ali Abdullah Saleh to have an unforgettable birthday. In reality, he had absolutely no time to care for and celebrate his own birthday.

March 21 was the 69th birthday of Yemeni President Saleh. That night, he worked around the clock to see many people, government officials and military and tribal leaders. In the meetings with these different people he conveyed the same information: He was willing to step down before the end of the year. On March 22, Saleh’s spokesperson publicized Saleh’s position.

Saleh was still waiting for the opposition party to respond to his promise. But as Yemeni protestor Abdul al-Iryanisaid in an interview, “We can’t accept this kind of condition, we won’t leave until Saleh steps down.”

Saleh is Surrounded on All Sides

Last Friday, after the clash that took place between the crowds and the security forces resulted in close to 50 deaths, Saleh was besieged on all sides and his regime was in peril. At present, there are already dozens of senior officials and tribal leaders who have declared they would support the “peaceful revolution” of the masses. Yemen’s diplomatic envoys stationed in the European Union — Paris, Berlin, Brussels and Frankfurt —have asked Saleh, without exception, to step down. There are still even more people who have used resignation to express support for a “peaceful revolution,” including generals, tribal leaders and other major players.

According to CNN News reports, Saleh already accepted the demands raised by the opposition party, including: resigning before the end of this year, giving Yemenis the right to protest and not carrying out violent repression against them, setting up a committee to carry out investigations on attacks suffered by the demonstrators, making sure the families of demonstrators killed or injured receive state compensation, ensuring that the government carries out constitutional and electoral reform and requiring that Saleh’s family resign from the military.

“He has already ruled the country for 33 years, it is time for the arrival of democracy,” a Yemeni told this reporter.

Yemen is located on the southernmost tip of the Arabian peninsula, and is one of the poorest countries in the world. This is also a difficult country; the southern part has separatist forces, the sea is infested with pirates, its oil resources are nearing depletion and water resources are scarce. In Yemen, with a population of 28 million, more than one in three people is unemployed and half of the population has never had any education.

Beginning from Jan. 15, thousands upon thousands of Yemenis took to the streets in peaceful demonstrations demanding that President Saleh step down. The unemployment rate remained high and many people complained about the government — the rise in the price of goods and government corruption.

After experiencing last Friday’s bloodshed, analysts believe that the possibility of Saleh stepping down has increased. “And in the end how long can Saleh last? It depends to what extent the country makes noise and how he deals with this,” said Li Weijian, director of the Shanghai International Studies West African Research Centre.

America is Caught in a Dilemma in the Middle East and North Africa

Yemen is the native home of al-Qaida’s bin Laden. America’s Central Intelligence Agency believes that Yemen’s al-Qaida branch is the greatest threat to American security. After the Christmas bombing attempt occurred in 2009, America provided a total of about $70 million of military aid to Yemen the following year. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also announced last year that the United States Agency for International Development would provide approximately $121 million of developmental assistance to Yemen within three years.

“Yemen is America’s front line against terrorism. Over the years, America has always been supportive of Saleh,” said Vice President Jin Canrong of the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University in China. America’s attitude towards the Yemen situation thus seems ambiguous.

Yemeni Abdul al-Iryani hopes Obama is able to make a statement to make Saleh step down because this would exert some pressure on Saleh. He believes whether or not Saleh steps down will certainly not affect America’s counterterrorism strategy. “We all oppose al-Qaida. Saleh is only using the name of anti-terrorism to reach his hand out to America for money,” he explained to this reporter.

It now appears that the United States has exhibited great care by not exerting too much pressure on its fragile allies. “America’s predicament is very embarrassing, it can’t stand on the opposite side of public opinion, and yet also must take into account its own interests — in this way it became indecisive.”

Public demonstrations continue not just in Libya and Yemen, but also in Syria, Jordan and Bahrain. “The chaos of the Middle East and North Africa will continue for some time; these countries affect one another,” said Li Weijian.

“Originally, the demands had been relatively simple at the street demonstrations occurring in the Middle East and North Africa — mostly demands for social reforms be carried out. But after Western forces intervened, the situation turned even more complicated and several opposition parties became disillusioned,” believes Li Weijian. “And America’s attitude was quite realistic. It really does not want all countries to be chaotic, but wants to preserve a part of the regime for its own advantage.”

American issues expert Jin Canrong believes that in the long term, the United States will not change the shifting direction of its strategic focus toward the Asia-Pacific region, but, due to the sudden change of the Middle East situation, the rhythm of the strategic shift will be disrupted. America will look at the how the situation develops and consequently make some adjustments.