Obama’s Re-Election — Is There No Suspense?

Synopsis: According to practical Americans, having work to do and money in one’s wallet is the most important thing. It is more encouraging than any pleasant speech. Americans are already having a hard time being duped to vote after hearing President Obama’s showy, impassioned speeches. The Europeans’ hearts are racing on the other side of the Atlantic, but Americans themselves are not impressed.

After President Barack Obama announced that he would run for a second term, the media agencies of every country made their analyses. The most interesting one was published by Reuters news agency, which said that unless something unexpected happened, Obama would win the 2012 election and serve a second term.

As spectators, Europeans have continued to feel very enthusiastic about Obama and have invested a great amount of hope in him. A general analysis shows that Obama’s European fans have the following main opinions. As a president, he has more power and more opportunities to take interviews. He is expected to raise US$1 billion for the 2012 election — an unprecedented amount of money in the history of American politics.

He has more visibility, and he has more campaign funds, but is that really enough to determine Obama’s re-election?

To use a popular phrase, an optimist would say it’s pretty fun. At the same time that Obama announced his re-election plans, the most recent polls stated that Obama’s approval ratings have fallen to 42 percent, the lowest since Obama took office. Furthermore, nearly half of those polled said Obama was not qualified to serve a second term.

How could the opinions of those within and outside of America differ so greatly? It’s quite simple. The outsiders see the excitement, and they see with blurred vision. They are full of emotions. On the other hand, those on the inside know the feeling well. They seek a practical choice; they are being realists.

This can be seen by the lack of popularity of Obama’s second State of the Union address at the beginning of the year. After entering his third year in office, Obama began to reorient his work toward the presidential election next year. For this reason, Obama spoke passionately at the State of the Union address, but unfortunately, the people didn’t buy it. That’s because no one can be duped for so long.

Harsh reality has been the biggest obstacle to Obama’s re-election. According to practical Americans, having work to do and money in one’s wallet is the most important thing. It is more encouraging than any pleasant speech. Americans are already having a hard time being duped to vote after hearing President Obama’s showy, impassioned speeches. The Europeans’ hearts are racing on the other side of the Atlantic, but Americans themselves are not impressed.

Looking back at the election in 2008, one of the key reasons why Obama won so easily is because the financial crisis had no end in sight. Republicans had nothing left to say. According to voters who think the economy and people’s welfare are the most important issues, an administration that cannot get the economy right cannot be trusted. This slightly confused Republican candidate John McCain and ultimately caused him to lose the race.

But the world never stops changing, and one person will not be stuck in an unfortunate position forever. The exact problem that agonized Republicans in the past is now causing Obama to lose sleep at night. Since the economic stimulus in the first two years of his administration was ineffective, both the people and the media generally feel hopeless. This was the direct cause of the Democrats’ defeat in the November midterm elections. Hate extends to all things connected to it. Many of Obama’s Democratic colleagues have been dragged down after Obama’s popularity took a nosedive.

Obama has realized the seriousness of the issue. At the beginning of 2011, Obama changed his focus to stimulating the economy and increasing jobs. It’s important to note that after the State of the Union address in January, the Obama administration passed many economic recovery plans, from the high-speed rail to electric cars, to a wireless network, to the aerospace industry. The goal was to make the people feel that Obama was determined to re-energize the economy and give a real boost to the job market.

Actually, there’s not much time left. There are two things for Obama to do: one, keep a good attitude, and two, wait. When it comes to economic cycles, in many cases a policy designed to stimulate the economy is not going to immediately stimulate the economy. George H.W. Bush faced an unfavorable period while in office, and when he sought re-election, the economy was a total mess. After he lost the election, the economy picked up. Although part of this is attributable to President Bill Clinton’s efforts, no matter how hard Clinton worked, there was no way he could stimulate the economy so quickly on his own. In other words, there was a little luck involved.

Actually, no matter if it’s the government, investment or emotion, getting everything just right and not overdoing it is the best approach.

The efforts of the Republican Party will also be a variable in the election. In the 2004 election, a major reason why President George W. Bush was able to win was that the Democrats did not choose a competent candidate. Kerry did not look like a president. Today, the Republican Party feels a little awkward. According to the Associated Press, the Republican Party [still] does not have a clear front-runner, and this is unusually late for presidential elections. According to Gallup poll records, ever since 1952 when Dwight D. Eisenhower was the Republican president, Republican Party nomination races always had a “clear front-runner” at least 15 months before the presidential election.

Obama’s relative weakness is a huge opportunity for the Republicans. For this very reason, those who have the potential to become candidates are all being very cautious because they are afraid they will miss this rare opportunity. Currently, the former U.S. ambassador to China, Jon Huntsman Jr., and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have a competitive edge. Incidentally, the two are both Mormon.