$1 Billion

This is the sum that Barack Obama is expected to raise for his presidential campaign. He announced on Monday that he would run for president again in 2012 — which wasn’t a big surprise given the lack of a serious Republican opponent. Experts predict a record-setting presidential campaign in terms of expenses — and this at a moment when the U.S. has budget problems on all levels (granted, the fact that the country is involved in three ongoing wars doesn’t help matters).

Half of the states are experiencing financial crises. In the three biggest states — namely California, Texas and New York — the proportions of these crises can be identified as apocalyptic. Before May ends, the federal government will have reached the budget deficit ceiling legally declared by Congress ($14.3 trillion). Much sooner, maybe even by the end of this week, many federal offices may be closed because of the lack of agreement between the parties regarding spending for this year. A similar precedent was set in 1995, but then Bill Clinton succeeded in turning the defeat into a victory by inflicting hard political blows on the Republicans. This episode guaranteed him an easy re-election in 1996, but it also put him in contact with the now infamous Monica Lewinsky — a meeting that would subvert an otherwise successful presidency at its very end.

A lot of things can happen during the next 18 months that can either improve or undermine the chances of the White House’s current resident to stay there for another four years. Libya, Afghanistan, the economy or something else: the potential for problems is boundless. At least at the moment, however, Obama seems to be headed toward success.

He raised money from a record-breaking 4 million people for the 2008 elections. The stunning $750 million went through his campaign’s accounts then. About a quarter of the donors gave less than $200 each. The other three quarters invested larger sums up to the allowed maximum of $2000 per person. These are only the direct donations, excluding what was raised by different political action committees. These committees cannot aid the candidate directly, but they can provide the finances for various commercials on topics related to him.

The president has better access to the media than his opponents, due to the nature of his post, and this makes his task a little bit easier. Every time he uses Air Force One to travel in connection with the upcoming elections, the expenses are covered by his campaign, of course. Such things are very obvious and strictly followed by the media and the Federal Election Commission. But who is to say that any summoning of the media in the Rose Garden in front of his residence and any hand-shake with foreign leaders is not, in fact, self-promotion?

So where will Obama’s money go? You can watch the first commercial from the campaign, entitled “It Begins with Us,” on YouTube or at BarackObama.com. It gives a good idea of the major groups of voters that Obama is fighting for. He needs the support of a large enough percentage of adult white men and women from the middle classes, as well as a convincing victory among voters under 30 years of age and among minorities. These are some of the calculations that those responsible for the campaign have made, especially given that many 2008 supporters feel cheated. Many Americans, for example, are unhappy with Obama’s agreement with the Republicans to keep taxes for the rich at their current low levels, as well as his keeping the Guantanamo prison open.

Obama will have to deal with many unexpected complications as well. At the moment, Donald Trump is his major opponent. But even if he decides not to run for president, Trump still heads the camp of those who believe that the president was not born as an American citizen.

Campaigns are always interesting in the U.S., where they are conducted in the form of a high-level manipulation lesson. Isn’t it ironic, then, that all of these unprecedented means and efforts will go into the purchase of an already-used president?