Ju Hui: Afghanistan Retreat Plan Indicates Obama’s Political Consideration

President Obama officially announced Afghanistan’s retreat plan on May 22. Analysts universally think this plan intentionally ignores the Pentagon and the actual operational requirements of U.S. commanders in Afghanistan, and mainly is based on Obama’s domestic political consideration for the 2012 Presidential election.

According to the latest plan, the U.S. will withdraw 10,000 troops this year and another 23,000 troops by Sept. 2012, which is beyond many people’s expectations, regarding the retreat scale and speed. Before the declaration, the debate was focused on whether it’s necessary to withdraw the 30,000 troops added by Obama in 2009 or not, by the end of next year. Some military experts pointed out that summer is the golden season for conducting military operation in Afghanistan; withdrawing troops now is too drastic and would make it incredibly difficult for U.S. commanders to conduct military operations. The senior researcher, Richard Fontaine, at the Center for New American Security, analyzed that if the withdrawal of 23,000 troops could be deferred two to three months, the U.S. troops in Afghanistan would have enough strength to basically complete the combat duty next year. Another security expert also said that withdrawing a large number of combat troops prematurely would threaten America’s achieved results in Afghanistan. The senior advisor in the Department of Defense, Robert Kaplan, pointed out directly that Obama’s treat timetable was more out of consideration of domestic politics instead of actual war requirements. Some analysts pointed out that by Sept. 2012, the presidential campaign will enter the final sprint, finishing the promise of troop retreat above quota before the end of next summer. However, withdrawing troops at the end of next year would be too late for Obama’s campaign.

Since Obama’s announcement of adding 30,000 troops and promise of retreat in Dec. 2009, the domestic debate on the scale and speed of retreat has never stopped. Instead, it has heated up with the nearing due date and the increasing of national debt.

According to the revelation by the U.S. media earlier, there were explicit conflicts within the Obama administration on the pace of retreat. One faction that advocated an earlier retreat was led by Vice President Joe Biden, as well as National Security Advisor Thomas E. Donilon and the White House security team. The camp led by the Defense Secretary Robert Gates was against premature retreat, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Supreme Commander in Afghanistan Petraeus and many U.S. army generals. The White House officials thought that after shooting down bin Laden in Pakistan, the U.S. should retreat as soon as possible, given the national deficit. However, Gates held that the almost 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan had finally started to show results, thus, they needed to withdraw troops cautiously, and that it is too early to assert the impact of bin Laden’s death on Afghanistan’s security. The U.S. commanders also hoped to station as many troops for as long as possible in Afghanistan, and they worried that quickly withdrawing troops could possibly destroy the vulnerable domestic security in Afghanistan.

However, outside of the decision-making level, both powers for and against accelerated withdrawal are critical of Obama. On one hand, given the slow economic recovery and remaining high unemployment rate, plus the increased U.S. casualties in Afghanistan, the majority of Americans are in a high anti-war spirit. Obama’s approval ratings have been consecutively lower than before. Many Congress members have been unceasingly pressuring Obama, urging him to make a big step on troop retreat. A Democratic senator welcomed Obama’s initiation of a retreat plan, but thought it was too slow. The former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi also continued to press the White House to accelerate the retreat. On the other hand, Republicans attacked Obama for lacking an overall strategy. One of the 2012 Presidential candidates, Republican Mitt Romney, criticized Obama that the withdrawing timetable was overly arbitrary, that it had no concern for the actual situation in Afghanistan. The Republican Sen. Corning reproved that Obama’s decision was completely out of domestic political motivation.

According to the White House spokesperson, Carnie, until the day before the announcement of Afghanistan retreat, Obama was still making adjustments for the withdrawal plan, before which Obama has met with the White House Security Team and Army many times, regarding the military withdrawal. According to an unnamed White House official, every plan was on the president’s table, and the decision power was in his hands. Therefore, we can see that the final retreat plan was the result of Obama’s repeated weighing and thoughtful consideration. Nevertheless, whether Obama’s great efforts can bring huge political rewards is still unknown. Some analysts indicated that compared to the huge debt in America, savings from retreating now will be negligible. The key factor that will decide the outcome of the presidential election is still economic recovery and the creation of jobs. The trend of Afghanistan’s domestic situation, after military retreat and its influence on America’s security, still remains to be seen.