2012 Review and Forecast: The Arab World in the Midst of Turbulence

The Jasmine Revolution that broke out in Tunisia at the end of 2010 spread at a speed that no one expected in the Arab world, consisting of western Asia and North Africa. Egypt, Algeria, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Bahrain and other countries were swept into this political tsunami, one after the other. The Arab League, in an unprecedented move, froze Libya and Syria’s statuses as member nations. The NATO nations launched a military offensive against Libya, culminating in the downfall of the Libyan government. The impact and scope of the Jasmine Revolution has unarguably become one of the hottest topics in the world.

This political tsunami in the Arab world has rewritten the histories of several Arab nations and broken the traditional regional political territories and structure. The reasons for the movement's formation, the process it went through and its future prospects will become fresh, precious historical material that can be used for reference for studies of the region and of the world.

On Dec. 17 2010, a Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi sparked off a revolution on the streets by setting himself ablaze. The street revolutions that started in succession in the other Arab countries thereafter started basically as peaceful protests with no rigorous organization, leadership figures or fixed objectives. These subsequently revolutions turned into bloody conflicts. Soon afterward, the overthrowing of governments and dictators became the ultimate goal of the revolutionaries. Such was the case in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak were either exiled or overthrown, imprisoned and tried, all in the span of less than a month. Moammar Gadhafi and Ali Abdullah Saleh were also either killed or forced to give up authority within a few months. This sequence of peaceful protests, violent conflict and overthrowing of leaders almost became a model for achieving success in street revolutions. Such a model might be followed by other Arab countries and other countries around the world facing similar situations, causing it to become a popular phenomenon. Even superpowers like the U.S. and the UK are worried that such a phenomenon would spread to their own countries.

Mubarak, Gadhafi, Saleh and company were well-known powerful figures with iron fists in the Arab world. They gathered all the authority in the country unto themselves, became a law unto themselves and held on to power for lengths of time ranging from 20 to 40 years. They had even thought of passing on their power to their sons. In the face of the street revolutions, however, these iron-fisted governments, with their high-handed policies, lost their bite in an instant. The Arab revolutions proclaimed to the world that high-handed government and nepotism are no longer accepted by the Arab public. The model of family empires is history; this is a warning to other Arab nations as well as the rest of the world.

Centralized government and a lack of democratic freedom provides easy breeding ground for social ills like unfair social distribution, an excessively wide gap between the rich and poor, abuse of power, corruption, tyranny, severe unemployment and poverty. These were the main factors that caused the street revolutions in the Arab countries. In the first and second phases of Egypt’s parliamentary election, the Islamists, represented by the Muslim Brotherhood’s “Freedom and Justice Party” and the Salafi al-Nour Party, won many seats. The Islamist forces of Tunisia and Morocco were winners in the elections as well, while the influence of Islamists in Libya is also rapidly rising. The Islamists won by promising to end the ills mentioned above, winning the hearts of the people. The rapid rise of Islamists and their march toward seizing power has started to become a trend. Once the Islamists are in control, they will reform the governance model of the countries in accordance with their will; externally, they will adjust their relationships with other nations in the world, including the superpowers, in accordance with their own standards. We can deduce from this that once the Islamists are in control, they would undertake social reforms and structural changes that would significantly impact not only the Arab nations themselves, but also on these countries' international relations.

After 9/11, the U.S. and some Western nations have regarded Islam as the source of evil and terror. Their view of the street revolutions has shifted from that of looking on to that of giving support; they have attempted to take this opportunity to infuse the democratic values of the West into the Arab nations where the revolutions were taking place. Many experts and media have pointed out, however, that Islam’s democratic values are different from those of the West. The democratic values of the West cannot be accepted by the Islamic Arab nations. Some Egypt experts claim that Mubarak’s following of U.S. orders to make peace with Israel and ignore the Palestinians' problems was one of the important reasons for his overthrow. Egyptian protestors' attack of the Israeli embassy and demand that the supply of natural gas to Israel be cut was a display of their dissatisfaction with the U.S.’ siding with Israel and controlling of Middle Eastern policies, as well as Israel’s occupation of Arab territories and its cruel suppression of the Palestinians. After the Islamists seize control, the changes in the Arab nations' relationships with the West will profoundly impact the region's geopolitical situation.

2011 was a year of tremendous change in the Arab world. Though it is now difficult to determine where this turbulent movement is headed and how it will end, there is reason to believe that the Arab world is marching toward a better future.