“Angry Whites” Unable to Propel Romney to Victory

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 10 November 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Lauren Gerken.
As predicted by this column, U.S. President Barack Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney in the general election, successfully winning a second term in office. Throughout the campaign, most pundits were not particularly optimistic about Obama's electoral chances, as the U.S. unemployment rate remained high and national polls indicated similar levels of support for the two main candidates, without a clear statistical separation.

The results of the election showed that Obama had won just over 50 percent of the popular vote, only two points higher than Romney's 48 percent. Despite the small difference, however, it was overall a persuasive victory. Perhaps more importantly, winning the majority of voters' support helps to consolidate Obama's authority. This is because his presidency is now reinforced by that most basic principle of democracy, the will of the majority, despite some pundits' pre-election estimations that he would garner less of the popular vote than Romney and would thus have to rely on a greater number of electoral votes to win.

The main reasons for Obama's victory are the nine crucial swing states: He won at least seven, while Romney only won in North Carolina. Results in the remaining state, Florida, had not been determined at the time that this article was published [Editor’s note: Barack Obama ultimately won Florida], but will not have an impact on the final result. Victory in seven swing states, as well as the retention of all of the traditional Democratic strongholds, allowed Obama to win over 300 electoral votes, far surpassing the 270 needed to win the election.

In the hotly contested swing states, Obama's media campaign and ground game seemed better focused, outperforming Romney's on every count. Obama was able to retain the support of almost all of the minorities who backed him in 2008, including black, Hispanic and Asian voters. Furthermore, there was no obvious loss of support among women voters, which indicates that his campaign successfully reached target voters and not only gained their support, but also impressed upon them the urgency of voting. A pre-election poll showed that Obama's supporters were more enthusiastic about voting than Romney's.

Romney and the Republican Party must take a lesson from their defeat: In today's America, relying solely on angry whites as a base while opposing social welfare, immigration, etc. is a position from which it will be completely impossible to win a presidential election.



  香港《東方日報》文章 原題:奧巴馬勝選合理 一如本欄預測,美國總統奧巴馬在大選中擊敗共和黨挑戰者羅姆尼,成功連任。一直以來,大部分論者對奧巴馬的選情並不特別看好,認為美國失業率仍然高企,全國民調顯示兩名主要候選人的支持度相若,在統計學上無明顯分別。

  選舉結果顯示,奧巴馬的全國得票率僅超過百分之五十,較羅姆尼僅超過百分之四十八,高出兩個百分點,差距不大,但總算是具說服力的勝利。或者更重要的是,獲得過半投票選民支持,有助鞏固奧巴馬的權威。因為以最基本的少數服從多數民主原則衡量,他亦應該當選,而非如選前部分論者估計,他全國得票可能不及羅姆尼,要靠贏得較多的選舉人票當選。

  奧巴馬勝選主要原因是在九個定勝負的搖擺州份,至少贏了七個,而羅姆尼就只能在北卡羅萊納勝出。餘下的佛羅里達在本文執筆時未有結果,但對勝負大局已無關宏旨。七個搖擺州份的勝利,加上保住所有民主黨的傳統票倉州份,令奧巴馬獲得超過三百張選舉人票,遠超勝選所需的二百七十張。

  在爭持激烈的搖擺州份,奧巴馬的空中宣傳,及地上助選團隊表現似乎都比羅姆尼強,且更具針對性。奧巴馬成功保住幾乎所有在2008年支持他的小眾選民,包括黑人、西班牙裔、亞裔等。而且,一直支持他的婦女選票未有明顯流失,反映他成功把爭取連任的理念傳遞給目標選民,不但獲得他們認同,更令他們感到投票的迫切。選前一項調查顯示,奧巴馬的支持者對於投票,較羅姆尼的支持者熱心。

  羅姆尼及共和黨必須吸取失敗教訓:在今時今日的美國,單靠憤怒的白人為支持骨幹,反福利、反移民等主張,根本無可能贏得總統選舉。
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