Worries After Joys of Obama’s Re-election

Published in He Xun
(China) on 8 November 2012
by Shi Ze Hua (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yu Huifang. Edited by Heather Martin.
In the U.S. election the incumbent president, Democrat Barack Obama, has defeated Republican challenger Romney and was re-elected on Nov. 6.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. For this election, more Americans voted for Obama, who rescued the U.S. economy from its slump, than for Romney's “give me an opportunity." However, the real test for Obama in the second term is still the unbearable sorrow, money.

In economic policy, the Obama administration is continuing its practical ways and not adhering rigidly to ideology. It does not blindly advocate crazy tax cuts like the Republicans, nor is it giving out large amounts of social benefits like the traditional "big government" Democrats; rather, it is using government spending and market intervention accordingly as catalysts for economic development. However, social security on a certain level also means a significant level of financial investment, while "taxing the rich" paranoia is likely to reduce the confidence of business development. For the next few years, the Obama administration will continue to walk the fine line between decreasing expenditure and increasing tax, searching for the golden mean in politics between the poor and rich.

In terms of social policy, Obama fought bravely in the election by advocating same-sex marriage and calling on young, American women to fight for their rights to abortion and contraception. As a result, young, free-spirited people of coastal areas were ecstatic and voted for him.

However, if the younger generation is to continue leading such lifestyles, this will mean opening a Pandora's box of various radical thoughts. The only way to resolve this is to increase federal expenditure on education so that the younger generation can all afford university education to nurture them to be models of freedom, openness and inclusiveness. And this, too, would require money.

Defense and foreign policy should assist the Obama administration in saving some money, as compared to the competitive and suspicious Republicans. For the past four years, the Obama administration has reduced their defense expenditure, leading American soldiers out of the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This has saved much more money than what the Republicans have proposed.

However, the problem with the Democratic administration is its overwhelming concern with the “democratic process” of other countries as well as unifying the “liberal camp,” and it is willing to go to war too often, thereby wasting significant amounts of money. For the next few years to come, the two major minefields the Obama government should avoid are the civil wars of other countries and regional conflicts. Otherwise, the never-ending war expenditure will cripple the Democratic administration's future.

As for Sino-American relations for the next four years, the Obama administration’s foreign policy will include proceeding with its protectionist policies under the banner of protecting domestic labor rights. And the U.S. will not decrease its “guidance” for the Chinese economy and its economic policies. Still, the different structural benefits of Sino-American trade, investments and financial services will continue to be an important pillar in sustaining U.S. economic development and social stability. At the same time, returning to Asia ensures U.S. control over crucial areas and will greatly reduce Obama's limited foreign and financial resources. Among these, the best way for Obama to make money is moderate tension, but not to the extent of leading to a war in Asia or affecting the regional order; yet to a large extent, this will be a test of the flexibility and pragmatism of U.S. foreign policy.


连任的奥巴马高兴过后该愁些什么

  第二任期,真正考验奥巴马的,依然会是令其愁苦不堪的“钱”。

  在当地6日举行的美国大选中,现任总统、民主党候选人奥巴马击败共和党挑战者罗姆尼,成功连任。(11月7日新华网)

  一鸟在手胜过两鸟在林,此次选举中,更多的美国选民把票投给了正在跌跌撞撞地把美国经济从谷底捞起来的奥巴马,而不是一直在要求“给我一个机会”的罗姆尼。但是,第二任期,真正考验奥巴马的,依然会是令其愁苦不堪的“钱”。

  在经济政策上,奥巴马政府将继续走讲求实用、不拘泥于意识形态的路线。既不是像共和党那样一味疯狂减税,也不像传统的“大政府”民主党人那样倾情于高社会福利,而是以合适的尺度,让政府开支和对市场的干预变为经济发展的催化剂。不过,即便是一定程度上的社会福利,也意味着高额的财政投入,而“向富人征税”的偏执则有可能打击企业发展的信心。未来几年中,奥巴马政府将继续在减支和增税中间走钢丝,寻求穷人政治和富人政治之间的“黄金分割点”。

  在社会政策上,奥巴马在选举中“勇敢地”打出了“支持同性婚姻”的口号,同时呼吁美国年轻女性为自己的堕胎和避孕权利而战。此举让美国沿海地区一贯“自由奔放”的年轻人欢心雀跃,争相为其背书。

  但是,如果放任年轻一代充分享受自己散漫的生活,那么便意味着为好不容易消退下去的各式各样的激进主义思潮打开了泛滥之门。唯一的办法就是在教育上增加联邦投入,让年轻人都上得起大学,把他们培育成自由、开放、包容的典范。这也需要钱。

  与好战、猜忌的共和党人相比,防务与外交政策理应为奥巴马政府留出一些省钱的空间。过去四年,奥巴马政府一直把削减国防开支、把美军带出伊拉克和阿富汗两个战争泥潭作为执政目标,这比几乎不计成本的共和党人“省”钱得多。

  但是,民主党政府的问题在于过度关心他国的“民主进程”,也过度在意“自由阵营”的团结,经常愿意亲自披挂上阵,从而耗钱无数。未来几年中,他国内战和地区冲突继续是奥巴马政府极力避开的两大雷区。否则,战争支出的无底洞不会只埋葬共和党政府的前程。

  就中美关系而言,未来四年中,奥巴马政府的对外政策菜单中,打着保护其国内劳工权益旗号的贸易保护主义政策或将继续延续下去,美国对中国对内、对外经济政策的“指引”和指摘不会减少。毕竟,中美贸易、投资和金融关系中的各种结构性红利,将是维系美国经济增长和社会安定的重要支柱。同时,重返亚洲、确保美国对“关键地区”的控制这一对外战略,也将大量消耗奥巴马政府有限的外交和财政资源。其中,适度紧张但不导致地区战争的亚洲区域内秩序,最符合奥巴马政府的“生财之道”,但也会在极大程度上考验美国对外政策的灵活性和务实性。

  史泽华(学者)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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