Sanctions Dispel Illusion of Improved US-Iran Relations

The inauguration of Iranian moderate President Hassan Rouhani is imminent, bringing with it a sliver of hope for improved relations between the U.S. and Iran; however, the passing of a bill for fresh sanctions against Iran by the U.S. Congress has abruptly dispelled that illusion.

The bill is intended to further curb Iranian oil exports, targeting a reduction of 1 million barrels per day. Since the tightening of sanctions by the West, particularly the oil embargo by the EU, Iranian oil exports have shrunk dramatically, from 2.2 million barrels per day to approximately half that figure, at the same time falling from second to sixth place among OPEC nations. If the new sanctions are implemented, Iranian oil exports will become virtually nonexistent, being under the equivalent of a wholesale oil embargo. Iran will not only lack even the slightest foreign exchange revenue and the funds to develop nuclear weapons as per the design of the U.S. Congress, but it will also face the likely collapse of its currently fragile economy.

The bill in the House must still undergo a vote in the Senate and will only be officially put into force after being signed into law by President Obama; as such, it is still far from implementation. But this sends a hostile signal and seems particularly jarring given that Rouhani and Obama have been exchanging amicable phrases from across the globe. Several members of the House of Representatives have said that Rouhani should be given a chance.

Hardliners Capitalize, New Administration Woes

In the final tally, the bill passed with 400 votes in favor to 20 against, evincing the prevailing opinion in the House that a hard stance must be taken against Iran. This policy of unrelentingly harrying Iran is the exact opposite of the course favored by the White House, which is to extend the hand of friendship. The weeks and months ahead will not be easy for Obama, and even less so for Rouhani. After the newest Iranian president’s election and proposal to open dialogue with the U.S., Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that the U.S. lacked even the slightest credibility and must be guarded against carefully. These actions by the U.S. House of Representatives only serve to prove Khamenei’s wisdom. Hardliners will display a greater amount of self-righteousness in their insistence on opposing the West; Rouhani will find any action to the contrary more difficult.

In fact, one could say that the U.S. only harms others with no tangible benefit to itself by closing off Iranian oil exports, as the dearth of said oil will trigger an unavoidable rise in prices and, as the world’s largest economy, the U.S. will be the first to suffer. Meanwhile, its allies Japan and South Korea, both fairly dependent on Iranian oil, will have their share of difficulties as well. Somewhat earlier, over 130 members of Congress signed an appeal to Obama to seize this opportunity to explore every diplomatic means available for improving relations with Iran. Where are they now?