Will Bipartisanship Be Maintained in the United States?

The extreme American right, popularly known as the “tea party,” is very far from being defeated. Still, when they did not prevail in the last battle staged in Washington against the budget and legislation on medical care, they did not lose their drive. In the United States there is talk of a “state of civil war” within the Republican Party, in which this extremist group, instead of being on the defensive, has gone on the offensive.

Its strategy is being directed toward the primaries that will be taking place in many states at the beginning of 2014. At that time, candidates will be chosen that will run in the election in November of that year, where all seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the seats in the Senate will be at stake. Their objective will be to try and unseat those that the American press call “establishment Republicans” or “moderates,” particularly those who united with the Democrats to end the government shutdown.

The seat of Mitch McConnell, Kentucky senator and Republican minority leader, is one of those that will be fought over in the primaries; his opponent will be backed by the tea party. The same thing will happen in at least five other contests for Senate seats currently in the hands of traditional Republicans.

In the House the same phenomenon is occurring, although there the extremists feel more comfortable; they count on a solid group of around 50 congressmen whose seats are not in any danger. This group, in all likelihood, will be re-elected in November 2014 because they come from districts that are considered “secure.” By manipulating the layout of the electoral districts from the state legislatures, they have assured themselves challenge-proof support. They are mainly rural or Southern districts with white, middle class populations, highly religious with little education.

What effect will the new tea party offensive have? What happened in the 2012 election with one of the Indiana Senate seats can give us an example. In the previous primary, they managed to impose the candidacy of one Richard Mourdock, defeating incumbent Richard Lugar, who spent more than 30 years in the seat. Maybe a reader will remember that this Mourdock, ignorant and very religious like most of those in the tea party, was the one who said, speaking against the right to abortion in an interview, that a woman who is raped, if she “closes herself off,” can avoid conception.* If she becomes pregnant, he meant to say, it’s her responsibility. Alarmed by these opinions, the majority opted for Democrat Joe Donnelly in the general election, despite the fact that Indiana is historically a Republican state.

The conclusion that arises from these experiences is that the tea party extremists can dominate in many small representative districts, but it’s a different story when they compete on the national or even the state level, with the exception of Texas. Another example of this phenomenon is what happened with Mitt Romney’s candidacy for president of the United States in the 2012 election. In order to win the primary, he adopted many extremist views and then maintained them during the general election, excluding the majority of Americans.

Faced with this situation, the Republican strategists should be discussing how to avoid the tea party extremists — normally more militant and better organized than all the other conservative factions — imposing themselves on the diverse primaries at the beginning of 2014. If that happens, it is likely that the Democrats will maintain control of the Senate and could change the party in control of the House.

This situation is also causing some to ask themselves how long bipartisanship can be maintained within American politics. We all know that, more so than homogenous parties, the Republicans and Democrats are broad coalitions of regional groups with various ideological tendencies. These diverse groups and tendencies compete among themselves during the primaries and then the majority of them unite for the general election. The force of this unit in many occasions determines the results of the contest because if one important sector that was defeated denies support for the victorious sector, the balance will tip in favor of the opposition.

The tea party is a very distinct faction from others that have traditionally existed within the Republican Party — for its level of organization, its ability to raise money and the virulence of its political stances. It has taken root in the heart of the religious right and it has an important presence in the media, primarily on the radio. That reality has changed them into a determining force in the primaries. On occasion, when it does not prevail, it displays no interest in supporting the victorious conservative candidate. In practice, more so than a faction, it has become another party.

What happened with the recent confrontation in Washington dramatized how difficult it will be to maintain unity among the Republicans and, therefore, American bipartisanship. The tea party strategy was defeated in Congress and condemned by the majority of Americans. Nevertheless, they do not feel defeated; on the contrary, instead of looking to settle in, they have decided to go after the heads of the Republican “traitors.”

Faced with this scene, it becomes pertinent to ask how long the internal unity will last among the Republicans.

*Editor’s Note: This quotation could not be verified. The author may be confusing Mourdock with Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin, who claimed that female biology can somehow prevent unwanted pregnancy; Mourdock’s fumble was stating that pregnancy from rape was “God’s will.”