The End of American Supremacy

We have entered a new era in world history, where America is in decline and its rivals triumph.

According to many Russians, Vladimir Putin is now the man to talk to when it comes to global politics. A Russian think tank even wrote that the Syria war vote in the U.S. Congress was directly influenced by Putin’s role in the conflict. It’s not only the Russians who think Putin has become more powerful: He has been ranked the most influential person in the world by the likes of Forbes and The New York Times.

Snubbed Allies

In the last year, Putin has scored some significant points at Obama’s expense. In July, he allowed Edward Snowden to stay in Russia, brushing aside the warnings from Washington. In September, he essentially rescued Bashar Assad’s regime. In November, Russia played an important role in the ongoing negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. The most important victory, however, was Ukraine’s decision to tighten relations with Russia at the expense of the European Union. Russia has always regarded Ukraine as the keystone to their foreign policy, with the farthest piece of the country a mere 450 kilometers (280 miles) from Moscow. Without Ukraine, Russia would be highly vulnerable.

While Putin is scoring victories in the “near abroad,” the U.S. is losing its influence in the Middle East, which it so desperately wants and needs. The Arab Spring has not helped matters. The louder the calls for democracy, the more anti-American the rhetoric became. It’s as if democracy and anti-Americanism have become intertwined. For the first time in 50 years, America has no true ally in the Middle East.

In Egypt, the most important nation of the region, not only does the Muslim Brotherhood distrust the U.S., but so does the military. The former see them as enemies, the latter as traitors. Israel is also coming to the realization that it must look out for itself on foreign policy. After the Syria debacle from the end of last year, no one in Tel Aviv believes that America will be willing to pull the trigger in defense of its ally against Iran.

Saudi Arabia, which as a rule keeps its criticism of the U.S. to a minimum, has changed its position somewhat lately. “We’ve seen several red lines put forward by the president, which went along and became pinkish as time grew, and eventually ended up completely white,” said Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former intelligence chief of Saudi Arabia. “When that kind of assurance comes from a leader of a country like the United States, we expect him to stand by it.” The fact that they learned of the secret American negotiations with Iran at around the same time as Syria only added fuel to the fire. Poland has experienced that kind of disappointment first hand when the United States reneged on its promise to build a missile shield on Sept. 17, 2009 (the anniversary of Soviet aggression against Poland during World War II). The United States has become an expert in turning off their most trusted friends around the world.

A New Era

When Chuck Hagel became the Secretary of Defense in February of 2013, he gave Obama a copy of Dwight Eisenhower’s biography. A military hero of World War II as a general, Eisenhower’s priorities drastically shifted during his presidency, and he sought to limit the possibility for further American bloodshed. From the end of the Korean War to 1961, not a single U.S. soldier died in combat. Obama has seemed to take a similar initiative and has retreated all over the world. America has stopped playing the role of the necessary superpower or the policeman of the world, depending on the viewpoint. The results of this policy are clearly visible.

According to American political expert Walter Russell Mead, 2013 was a transformative year in foreign politics. A coalition of regional powers — Russia, China and Iran — which for years has been trying to counteract the American imposed status quo after 1989 have taken up the initiative. These countries have gained the confidence in their abilities to fundamentally transform world politics.

While too weak to take America head on, these countries have successfully exploited America’s weaknesses. However, these countries have problems of their own. Russia’s rate of growth for 2014 is projected to be 1.3 percent, which suggests a stagnating, rather than rising power.

International sanctions have also crippled Iran to such an extent that the mullahs agreed in part to freeze their nuclear program. The Chinese government is worrying about a potential recession. However, in light of America’s retreat, these problems are not fatal to ambition. The calculus for now is simple: What the Americans lose, their enemies gain.

The Americans no longer want to be the guarantors of worldwide security. They have no geopolitical vision. They celebrated when Hosni Mubarak’s government collapsed but had no idea how to address what came next. They seemed to have some success in Libya, but have no idea how to handle Syria. Nothing is able to hold their interest for long. American-led coalitions on these kinds of issues are about as sound as a Las Vegas drive-thru wedding.

The same can be said for Europe.

In the Cold War situation, what was good for Europe was also good for the United States, since it needed strong allies. Today is different. The largest project between Europe and the U.S. is the creation of a free trade zone. However, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is not seen by the U.S. as an attempt to build a lasting relationship, according to analyst Ashley Tellis. It is merely an instrument meant at keeping China out.

Obama’s supporters seem to have an explanation for all of this. As Richard Haass put it in his piece “The World Without America,” “The most critical threat facing the United States now and for the foreseeable future is not a rising China, a reckless North Korea, a nuclear Iran, modern terrorism or climate change. Although all of these constitute potential or actual threats, the biggest challenges facing the U.S. are … the domestic foundations of American power.” In short, America wants time off to focus on itself. Except that hasn’t been working out too well.

The Prison Nation

Before the 2012 elections, only 30 percent of Americans believed that their country was headed in the right direction. In response to the question of whether America is weaker than it was 10 years ago, more and more Americans are answering in the affirmative. This pessimism is grounded in some disturbing facts.

The United States has become a country of limited opportunity. As the main character of The Newsroom stated, “We lead the world in only three categories: Number of incarcerated citizens per capita, number of adults who believe angels are real and defense spending, where we spend more than the next 26 countries combined, 25 of whom are allies.”

The protagonist of The Newsroom forgets that the U.S. still has the largest economy in the world, since it does not fit in with his pessimistic outlook. However, other statistics seem to verify that kind of outlook. The U.S. has fallen out of the top 10 of countries with the best infrastructure. The average household income of an American family has fallen by 5 percent. In 2007, the U.S. economy was the most competitive economy in the world. Since then, it has fallen by six spots. In terms of average life expectancy, the U.S. is near the bottom of the top 50.

“[Americans] are supposed to be an example of consensus and democracy for the rest of the world,” said Salomon Cavane, a Mexican businessman, during the federal government shutdown. “The fact they can’t come to an agreement because of their pride and their need to show who has the power — it is just ridiculous. I find it quite irresponsible as well.”

In the end, America did not default on its loans, which did not come as a surprise to most. But is it enough to ease the fears? When Obama took office in 2009, his supporters boldly predicted him to be a unifying force, healing the country after eight years of division under the Bush administration. Nothing of the sort took place, and American mainstream politics became a stomping ground for extremists. In the last five years, the Republicans in Congress tried to filibuster 70 percent of all bills, more than 10 times the figure from the ‘60s.

Is the often-touted American optimism turning into detrimental foolishness before our eyes? Gideon Rachman, a leading political commentator, noted that although America got through the debt-ceiling crisis and shutdown unscathed, it could send the wrong message to politicians, who might be willing to take bigger risks in the future.

Doomsday scenarios about America’s impending downfall have been propagated for years. They were always premature. It is the case now as well. The United States still has a lot of enviable attributes and strengths. Fate has dealt them a great hand with the discovery of shale gas. According to cautious estimates, America’s fuel production will equal that of Saudi Arabia by 2020. More optimistic experts have already crowned the U.S. the leading oil and gas producer.

Around the world, many worry about America’s perceived decline, not only the Europeans. Their main rivals are worried as well. The American economy still constitutes 25 percent of the world’s GDP, and if that were to change even China would stumble. One thing is clear: The world is becoming less American, whether we like it or not.