Obama Unlikely To Cross Swords With Putin over Ukraine

The Ukrainian crisis is now unfolding at a rapid pace, and Russia has visibly tightened its control over the situation in Crimea. The U.S. government has announced measures enabling sanctions against Russian officials and warned of possible economic sanctions. The EU has also issued a statement that they are considering "a three-step process" to ramp up action against Russia. But few people truly believe that the U.S. and EU sanctions will achieve much. Putin himself is of the opinion that they will hold little more than symbolic value, much less break Russia's resolve.

Events in Ukraine intersect with Russia's core interests, and the indomitable Putin is not given to equivocating on such matters. Meanwhile, to the U.S., Ukraine is but a peripheral interest; one for which it would be unthinkable for Obama to cross swords with Putin. In the game of international relations, divergent outcomes are often determined by such strengths or weaknesses of will. Furthermore, Putin has some basis for justifying his actions in terms of international convention, while the U.S. and EU have yet to find solid footing. Within the unrest, the opposition faction that the West is backing has many weaknesses that can be exploited. This most recent Ukrainian crisis is no more than an attempt by the U.S. and EU to undermine Russia, but they have fallen far short of their goals.

Putin will lose little sleep over the threat of sanctions from the U.S. and EU. For quite some time now, the U.S. has been enacting discriminatory trade policies toward Russia and passed multiple bills restricting the development of economic ties between U.S. firms and Russia, with the result that annual trade between the two countries only totals $30 billion. The volume of trade between Russia and the EU is somewhat larger, amounting to roughly $400 billion per year. But the EU is divided on sanctions. Its 28 member states have fractured opinions on the issue, with some of them being unwilling to blindly follow the lead of the U.S., having experienced firsthand how Washington sows the seeds of misfortune and waits to reap the benefits. Maintaining normal trade relations with Russia remains of particular importance to Germany, France and other leading nations in the EU due to flagging efforts to revitalize the economy since the 2008 financial crisis. As an example, over 6,000 German companies operate within Russia — a figure corresponding to 300,000 jobs — and almost 40 percent of Germany's crude oil and natural gas is of Russian origin. Consequently, sanctions on Russia from the U.S.-led West are far from being realized. A March 6 summit was held precisely because of divided European positions on the issue.

As all well know, Russia is rich in natural resources and has access to every element on the periodic table. It is also one of the world's largest exporters of oil and natural gas. This independent, self-sufficient industrial economy would enable Russia to survive any amount of economic sanctions. Moreover, the Russian people possess a stalwart character and strong solidarity. Their mettle and courage shine at the critical junctures that determine the fate of their race, and they are not easily cowed by their enemies.

Even if Russia is confronted with Western sanctions and efforts to isolate it, its economic cooperation with the outside world will not simply cease. For one, the Russian-backed process of integrating the economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States has not been put on halt because of the Ukrainian crisis or Western sanctions. On March 6, the supreme council of the Eurasian Economic Commission, which was formed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, voted to move forward with plans to establish a Eurasian Economic Union. They also drafted an agreement regarding Armenia's inclusion into the union. Additionally, Russia has long-standing and extensive trade ties with fellow BRICS nations China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. Being snubbed by the West would undoubtedly lead Russia to further expand cooperation with those nations, as well as those of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the wider Asia-Pacific region and even developing countries in Africa and Latin America, marking another key reason why Russia has little fear of U.S. and EU sanctions.

The author is vice director of the PRC State Council Development Research Center's Euro-Asian Social Development Research Institute.