China and the De-Americanization of the World

China and Russia have just signed a historic 30-year gas deal worth $400 billion. Though it will allow Russia to bypass Western sanctions stemming from the Ukraine crisis, the big winner of this agreement is China. The deal is a part of a larger, more secure strategy to de-Americanize the world.

China’s rapid ascension to power has raised alarms in the West, especially in Washington. It seems inevitable that the Middle Kingdom will surpass the United States rapidly. China already has the second largest military budget in the world; however, experts believe that it is two to three times higher than the official amount, which is U.S. $166 billion. For the past 10 years, the country has been increasing its offensive capabilities; aircraft carriers, electromagnetic pulse weapons, supersonic missiles, etc. Its goal is to establish its sovereignty over the China Seas by taking aim at weaknesses in the American military.

China has increased its GDP 30 times since 1985, while the United States’ has only doubled. By 2016, it will surpass the U.S. and become the world’s largest economy 15 years earlier than expected. The People’s Republic is also the Americans’ largest lender, having acquired nearly $1.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds since 2001, or 10 percent of Washington’s total debt.

The United States is facing serious competition and confrontation seems unavoidable. The Defense Strategic Guidance (adopted in 2012) states that Washington must fight the emergence of any potential rival for its position as world leader. For some, like John Mearsheimer, a distinguished political science professor at the University of Chicago, China has become that rival. He has toured large universities worldwide to speak about war between these two countries. In 2012, Obama announced that despite cutting the budget and size of the army, the United States would reinforce its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region and create its much-vaunted Asian pivot around countries that are directly threatened by China, like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. By strengthening its presence in the region, the United States is directly committing itself to containing China and the growing threat of the Chinese military in the region.

China itself is not necessarily trying to be confrontational. According to China, its increased military spending is to defend itself against its belligerent neighbors and the increased presence of the world’s largest army at its borders both on land and at sea.

In this context, China cannot emancipate itself as long as the United States continues to form partnerships and alliances in the region. A direct conflict would be a loss for China. Most battles would take place within its maritime borders, where all its large urban, cultural, political and economic centers are located, and thus nearly 80 percent of its population. Knowing how delicate the situation is, Chinese political and military experts have concluded that they must “circumvent” rather than directly counter the American threat. Thus they are applying Sun Tzu’s principle: “supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.” The strategy: Force Washington to be isolationist by crushing its plans and reducing its field of action. The objective: to de-Americanize the world.

A Multipronged Strategy

On the diplomatic front, while criticizing America’s global commitments, China is promoting a vision of international relations that is diametrically opposed to American foreign policy, which is considered interventionist and imperialist. According to Beijing, China is practicing non-interference, and one of the founding principles of its foreign policy is peaceful emergence theory. This PR campaign has been successful in Africa and South America, where populations have bemoaned the remnants of neocolonialism left by Western powers. Last April, Carlos Lopes, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, re-encouraged African governments to follow the Chinese development model.

China is highly dependent on imports of raw materials. Seventy-five percent of its domestic consumption is fuelled by oil and gas imports that mostly originate from Africa or the Middle East, strategic points that are controlled by American flotillas and military bases. That is why for ten years now, China has committed itself to: 1) diversifying its supply sources by investing in countries that are boycotted or sanctioned by the West (Sudan, Iran, Angola, Venezuela); and 2) creating its own energy channels, be they along the coast of the Indian Ocean via “friendly” states like Cambodia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Iran, or through its great, rich neighbor to the north, Russia, with which it co-signed the largest natural gas agreement in history.

This way, China can secure its supply lines and avoid dealing with the United States.

Being the United States’ biggest lender, China is also the greatest economic threat to America. Last December, the Chinese government became annoyed by the constant arguing in the House of Representatives over raising the debt ceiling. Thus they decided to carry out a threat they had made several months earlier; just before Christmas, they put $55 billion on the market. Their objective was to de-Americanize the funds of the Chinese central bank, which holds the world’s largest reserve of greenbacks. They wanted to tell the world that China, which will become the world’s biggest economy in 2016, no longer has confidence in American currency (which has been depreciating for ten years against the euro) and that it will no longer finance America’s debt.

If this global, multi-pronged strategy succeeds, in the medium term, the United States will lose both the means to fulfill its Asian ambitions and its direct strategic control over China. Despite the pressure at its borders, China will be able to escape American containment without a fight.