Obama’s Failure as a Test of Republican Strength

Americans elect a new Congress this Tuesday. If the opinion polls are correct, President Obama’s Democrats will suffer a bitter defeat. In addition to being the minority in the House of Representatives, they are in danger of losing their majority in the Senate as well.

Nearly every pollster is addressing what the ramifications will be for President Obama’s remaining two years in the Oval Office if he is faced with a hostile Congress. Will he become a total “lame duck?” Will he be forced to dance to the music of the Republicans?

But the question should actually be, what are the ramifications for the Republicans if they have total congressional control and can arbitrarily pass whatever legislation they choose.

The reality is that it’s not Obama and the Democrats but rather the conservatives who will be faced with monumental challenges and litmus tests.

Because this election will be followed by another, from this week onward, the battle for the White House begins: the battle for the grand prize. Whether Republicans even have a chance to wrest the White House away from the Democrats will depend decisively on their own political skills over the coming 24 months

The chances they can retake the Oval Office don’t look very good right now. The Republican Party thus far has come off as clumsy; beyond that, it gives the impression of being internally sclerotic and badly divided.

The White House under the control of one party and Congress led by the other is no rarity. On the contrary, many U.S. presidents — whether Democratic or Republican — have had to put up with an opposing majority in Congress. If all went well, reason triumphed and both sides showed a willingness to compromise. Many far-reaching reforms came into being that way.

If things went poorly and the political divide remained insurmountable, the president governed by decree and merely vetoed legislation he opposed. The president isn’t doomed to be a “lame duck” functioning as a mere manager. He can continue to shape events and remain powerfully engaged in the political process.

His opponents have a much harder task of succeeding in such a quandary because along with increased responsibilities for the Republicans come also greater expectations.

So, let’s talk about the Republicans. Their most conservative voting base would want to finally see clear-cut conservative policies enacted: lower taxes — and especially lower outlays for social programs — which would definitely be vetoed.

In contrast to the Republican base, most Americans want to see a Republican Party that in the wake of an electoral victory would seek compromise with the president and be more oriented toward solving the nation’s problems rather than rigid adherence to ideology. The Republican Party leadership would have to be able to juggle all the various interests which — as it has historically demonstrated — it finds difficult to do. Both houses of Congress are home to right-wing zealots opposed to any compromise with Democrats and their despised president.

It’s entirely possible that Republicans will accomplish little to nothing in the next two years, except to become bogged down in trench warfare out in public view, while they destroy one another.

In view of the presidential elections coming in 2016, that’s a major problem for them because their only chance of regaining the White House depends on attracting more voters and moving to the political center in America.

One might well ask why these same Republicans elected in 2014 should fail in 2016? It’s due to the uniqueness of the system. Traditionally, far fewer voters participate in congressional elections — perhaps 40 percent of eligible voters — and they tend to be mainly the disappointed and angry ones: older voters, predominantly white males. In 2014, the Republicans have the advantage here.

But in presidential elections, 15 to 20 percent more eligible voters actually go to the polls, and they tend to be young, black, Hispanic and female, and who feel the Democrats better represent their interests.

In order to win this significant bloc of voters back, Republicans have to make drastic changes: They have to support comprehensive immigration reform; they can’t take a slash-and-burn approach to social programs; and they have to distance themselves from their strict opposition to abortion rights and gay and lesbian marriage.

In brief, they will have to shed their skins more quickly and more often than chameleons.