We Already Have a Loser

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may come from the Middle East, but he fights according to Wild West rules: A one-on-one showdown, trading shot for shot, and all that matters is who is left standing when the dust clears. But what makes westerns popular can be a very risky game in politics. That’s what this Caesarean John Wayne who goes by the innocent nickname “Bibi” is doing by defying America.

Here’s a recap of negotiations up to the present as Netanyahu’s speech to Congress approaches: Netanyahu was invited by his brother-in-arms John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, to address the U.S. Congress on the subject of Iran developing nuclear weapons. They both agree that any agreement with Iranian negotiators must be prevented at all costs. Boehner expects Netanyahu to provide him with covering fire in his domestic political shootout with Obama. Netanyahu, in return, is grateful to Boehner for providing him with such a great opportunity to appear statesman-like in public just two weeks prior to Israeli elections when Netanyahu runs to keep his job. The only fly in the ointment is Barack Obama who rightly feels he was blind-sided and is now fighting back.

Serious Cracks in the Facade of Friendship

There will be no winners in this three-way drama starring Bibi, Boehner and Barack, but the loser has already been decided. It’s Israel that will run the risk of losing U.S. protective might because of its stubborn head of state. The American broadsides currently being fired at Netanyahu and his minions should be seen as alarm signals: Obama refused to invite Netanyahu to the White House, Vice President Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry have been reined in and many Democratic representatives have threatened to boycott Netanyahu’s speech.

It’s certain that even as angry as he is, Obama won’t turn his back on Israel. Washington views its relations with the Jewish state as a mixture of deep emotional ties and strategic interests. But the deep cracks in that facade cannot be ignored and Netanyahu shouldn’t depend upon his Republican friends and the much-vaunted Israel lobby in America to deflect Obama’s retaliation. The bottom line is that many European allies have already begun distancing themselves from Netanyahu’s Israel, as evidenced by recent U.N. votes. In diplomatic circles meanwhile, the talk is that America’s veto-reflex when it comes to Israel’s best interests threatens to weaken the Security Council.

Netanyahu’s diplomatic gaffe threatens to produce serious consequences for his own nation. Whether it will be useful to him personally won’t be known until after the elections on March 17. But the anticipated triumphal address to Congress is now considerably more difficult owing to palpable Washington anger. If this all were really just a movie, Hollywood would already have the closing scene scripted: A lone Bibi Netanyahu riding disappointedly off into the sunset.