Barack Obama’s Ukrainian Maneuver

Caught between the aspiration of European Union countries for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Donbass and the sharp anti-Russian posture of U.S. legislators and the Pentagon, who are demanding the delivery of modern military equipment to Kiev, the White House chief is attempting to maneuver. On March 10, it became known that a month ago German Chancellor Angela Merkel dissuaded Barack Obama from arming the Ukrainian military, and on March 11, the Obama administration widened the anti-Russian sanctions list and took a decision on additional deliveries of nonlethal military equipment to Ukraine.

On Tuesday, German Ambassador to the U.S. Peter Wittig informed The Associated Press that Barack Obama refrained from actively discussing the idea of arming Ukraine within the American establishment as a result of the meeting with Merkel, which occurred on Feb. 9 in the White House. “The two leaders exchanged views on that issue and there was unity by them not to impose, or not to go forward with, the delivery of lethal defensive weapons at this time,” Wittig said. He added that it was important “to give some space for those diplomatic, political efforts that were underway.” Wittig in particular explained this mutual consensus as an acknowledgement of the need to “weigh carefully whether this would inject an additional element that could be a pretext or a trigger for counter-reaction by the Russian leadership.”

Obama re-affirmed after the meeting with Europe’s most powerful leader that “a decision has not yet been made” on military assistance to Kiev. He added that “if, in fact, diplomacy fails, I’ve asked my team to look at all options, what other means can we put in place to change Mr. [Vladimir] Putin’s calculus…And the possibility of lethal defensive weapons is one of those options that’s being examined.” But it was clear that the issue of delivering weaponry had been removed from the top of the agenda – at least until the terms of the Feb. 12 Minsk Agreement are irrevocably shattered. Obama’s cautious approach has not been met with approval in Congress, where not only Republicans, but also Democrats have continued to press for increased military involvement in the Ukrainian crisis. The hawkish position has been given additional weight by intelligence, voiced by various American officials, that Russia continues to militarily support the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, even after the signing of the Minsk accords.

And now the White House, it seems, has decided to demonstrate that it is closely following the situation and is prepared for decisive action. On March 11, the anti-Russian sanctions list was broadened to include 14 citizens of Russia and Ukraine and two organizations, including the Russian National Commercial Bank. The EU introduced sanctions against the bank last July on the pretext that it had begun operations in Crimea. At the moment, a large portion of the bank branches, operating offices and ATMs on the peninsula belong to the bank. Of the individuals recently added to the sanctions list, by far, the most well-known is Alexander Dugin, the rabid ideologue of Russian empire and confrontation with American civilization, who leads the International Eurasian Movement. Also added to the list at the same time were the pro-Dugin Eurasian Youth Union and its leaders, Pavel Kanishchev and Andrei Kovalenko. Among the former Ukrainian officials coming under sanctions were two former prime ministers, Nikolai Azarov and Sergei Arbuzov, as well as the former health minister, Raisa Bogatyrova. Also on the list are a range of figures from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.

On the same day, March 11, it became known that Washington was widening its deliveries of nonlethal military assistance to Ukraine. According to The Associated Press, Vice President Joe Biden discussed this during a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. According to journalists, the U.S. will send to Ukraine, in particular, non-weaponized drones and armored vehicles. The first deliveries are planned in the coming weeks. It is expected that the U.S. will transfer to Ukraine a system of small, unmanned Raven aircraft, communications systems, radars for detecting mortar and artillery positions, 30 armored, multi-purpose, all-terrain vehicles, and 200 standard off-road Humvees. The pending deliveries (not counting the automotive engineering) are estimated at $75 million.

It is worth noting that the American decisions to expand the sanctions list and deliveries of military equipment were taken at the same time that, in the Old World, as a result of the relative stabilization of the situation in the Donbass, high-ranking officials have more and more often been expressing hope in the Minsk Agreement’s success. Said officials have more frequently stated that there is no need to intensify the anti-Russian sanctions, and that these sanctions, coupled with Russian countersanctions, will lead to mutual economic harm. However, one cannot fail to see that the latest decisions by the White House have an ostentatious character, not really changing the existing state of affairs. Barack Obama is striving to avoid an escalation of direct American involvement in the Ukrainian conflict and a furthering of political confrontations with Europe, even while at the same time partially conciliating the hawks in Washington.