Operation Decisive Storm and Lifting the American Umbrella

Operation Decisive Storm began suddenly, surprising all, and ended just as suddenly, leaving many unanswered questions. Major military operations have halted, but the finger is still on the trigger, and bombing will continue, albeit less frequently. Despite completing Operation Decisive Storm, it appears that not all of its goals have been achieved — from a military aspect much was achieved, but the political ramifications are less than clear. Nevertheless, Operation Decisive Storm changed the alliances, equilibrium and dynamics of the situation on the ground and has possibly established a new Arab regional security framework that fixes an upset balance, distances the ghosts of control and confrontation and most importantly sparks a long, deep conversation into the importance of the existence, interaction and dynamics of Arab legitimacy.

Arabs have long suffered, having found themselves on the weak side of the lost balance of power, unable to deter their traditional opponents, notably Israel, and new opponents, such as Iran. This has caused Israel, Iran, to a certain extent Turkey, and of course the United States, Russia and Europe to effectively remove Arabs from the regional equation! This overexposes the structure of Arab security, leaving it vulnerable to the ambition and decisions of foreign capitals, especially Washington, and increasingly antagonistic regional capitals, such as Tel Aviv, Tehran and Ankara.

Undoubtedly, this effective removal has led to Arab frustration and helplessness, leaving Arabs handcuffed as they watched the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait; the Israeli occupation of Beirut; Israel’s multiple wars in Lebanon and Gaza; and strikes in Iraq, Tunisia, and Sudan. Furthermore, Arabs have sorrowfully followed Iran’s occupation of Iraq and observed Iran’s control over Syria, Lebanon and most recently Yemen, without making a sound. Iran has filled the strategic void, spreading into areas of Arab influence for the pride of the Revolutionary Guard both past and present — Iran’s borders stretch to the Mediterranean for the third time in its history as Iran strives to restore the glory of the Persian Empire! The arrogance and hubris of some of Iran’s military, religious and political leadership has reached such a point that they brought four Arab capitals into the bondage of Iranian control without any consideration for the Arabs, who repeatedly take these slaps to the face without batting an eye. Of course when you are weak, your opponents want nothing more but to take advantage of your weakness, daring to play in your court, threatening your interests. This has become a reality.

Clearly, Operation Decisive Storm achieved its military aims, though military action will continue in Operation Restoring Hope, which will integrate military action with political action. Operation Decisive Storm effectively destroyed the Houthis’ and their allies’ military, security, defensive and offensive capabilities, along with their command and control centers and ballistic missiles.

Perhaps the most important development of last month’s action was that it affirmed the Gulf Cooperation Council’s active leadership role in Arab collective security, as has been the reality for years. This reality is demonstrated in the gathering of an unprecedented military coalition composed of participating countries and supporting countries from Morocco to Pakistan, the 10 participating countries conducting military operations at a professional level. Most importantly, this was all achieved completely independent of the United States and its umbrella. Additionally, the Gulf representatives in the United Nations were unprecedentedly able to obtain a UN resolution. Under Chapter VII lies Resolution 2216, which adheres to Gulf initiatives in Yemen. The resolution imposes sanctions on Houthi leadership and Ali Abdullah Saleh, imposes a ban on the export of arms to the Houthis – a hit to Iran – through an air, sea and land embargo, reaffirms the legitimacy of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi and supports Operation Decisive Storm. Notably, the Russians did not use their veto power this time around.

In Operation Restoring Hope, there is international recognition of Saudi Arabian and Gulf Cooperation Council leadership in preventing weapons from reaching the Houthis, implementing the air and sea embargos, and conducting aid and humanitarian work along with political work. This caused President Obama to send a clear message to Iran, sending the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Gulf of Aden. This is yet another achievement by the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council.

I believe that the most important achievement of Operation Decisive Storm was that it affirmed the ability of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council to come out of the cloak of American protection and independently conduct military operations without the American umbrella. The strategic relationship between the U.S. and the Gulf reached its peak after the war to liberate Kuwait, after which the Gulf Cooperation Council and the United States signed a bilateral security agreement and numerous deals of tens of billions of dollars to supply the Gulf with sophisticated weapons systems. After these security and military agreements were signed, this idea that the Gulf countries and Arabs were not able to wage war, or even defend themselves, without the leadership and agreement of the United States became embedded in the collective Arab mind. This is what I have called for years, “imported security.”

But Operation Decisive Storm has changed this idea. The operation has caused Americans, for their part, to look on with admiration and amazement at the strategic and professional change in their Gulf allies, especially taking into account President Obama’s doctrine of leading from behind and strategic patience, counting on allies to participate in security affairs, including sharing costs and military missions. Has the Gulf Cooperation Council reached the stage of independence and created a regional balance to Iran, forming the nucleus of Arab collectivity under Gulf leadership, paving the way out of the protection of the American security umbrella—or is this being too optimistic?