US Candidate Jeb Bush: Not Without His Brother

The future U.S. presidential candidate, Jeb Bush, is visiting Germany. Jeb may sound more moderate than George W., but his brother’s disastrous foreign policy is in danger of being revived with him as leader.

Obama’s gone, Bush arrives. Just as the U.S. president leaves the G-7 summit for America, Jeb Bush makes an appearance in Berlin this Tuesday. A speech to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Economic Council, perhaps an encounter with the chancellor, a meeting with German Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble, and one with Minister for Foreign Affairs, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Like his father and brother, Jeb Bush wants to become the U.S. president. He’s on a European tour; he wants to raise his foreign policy profile for the election campaign. Next week, Bush will deliver his official election campaign speech in Miami.

Obama leaves, Bush arrives. German top personnel receive the 62-year-old like someone who could arrive as leader of the Western world next time. They are certainly very proud of their star guest at the Berlin economic meeting.

But which vision are they giving center stage? During the past few months, Jeb Bush has made no secret of the fact that he sees himself as a successor to his brother with regard to foreign policy. This shouldn’t just give the CDU Economic Council something to think about.

Jeb may be the more reasonable of the two Bush brothers. He is calmer, more cautious, more rational – and thus the better Bush. But if Europe had a vote, would he be the best American president from our perspective? No, he wouldn’t.

Even without a family sequel, the political damage caused by his brother will continue to have an effect for years: in the U.S., in Europe, and especially in the Middle East. Obama has responded to George W. Bush’s policy of imperial overstretch with a gradual withdrawal (retrenchment). According to his idea, other nations should primarily resolve their problems themselves. Furthermore, Obama has reached out to other dictators to bring about change through rapprochement: Cuba and Iran are examples of this commitment.

Retrenchment and commitment –– Jeb Bush wants to reverse both of these. And that’s not good news. His perspective on things is as follows: You don’t talk to the Castros; the regime in Tehran is more dangerous than the Islamic State; America should show greater leadership worldwide. “Our enemies need to fear us again,” he says.

So how is he distinguishing himself from his brother here? In fact, even Jeb would fire up the long-serving Bush apparatus: With few exceptions, all of his advisers on foreign policy have previously served under George W. Bush. His most prominent adviser on external matters, however, is… his brother. No joke.

Recently, Jeb required three days to clarify that he, knowing what we know today, would not have invaded Iraq like his brother did 12 years ago. Three days for something that is self-evident. But what about the fact that the war was a mistake from the very start, not just in hindsight? We may well never hear this admission from Jeb Bush.

However, it can’t be ruled out that he could encounter a particular type of fan base in Germany: one that would prefer to keep out of international affairs completely and would prefer to leave matters to the U.S. – from fighting Ebola to military action. The concept of a clear American enemy greatly increases awareness of one’s own virtue, because nowhere is there more condescension and gossiping than in the heated spectator stands of world politics. Jeb Bush would play into the hands of these people. That would be a bad thing for both Europe and America.

It’s a shame, actually, that in terms of foreign policy, Jeb Bush is more like the president’s brother than the president’s son. He could do with following the example of his father George H.W. Bush. He made German unity possible, for example, and talked of “partners in leadership.”

Incidentally, Barack Obama holds the senior Bush in high esteem.