The high number of candidates for the Republican Party was depicted by Barack Obama as “The Hunger Games,” a film series where a number of children and teens fight to death in a tournament. Given that so many candidates are running for the White House, such a statement seems like analysis rather than a joke.
“We’ve got some healthy competition in the Democratic Party, but I’ve lost count how many Republicans are running for this job,” Obama said ironically during his address to the University of Wisconsin in the beginning of July.
If nothing happens in the next five months, more than 12 candidates of the Grand Old Party will run in the primary elections. From February 2016 on, they are going to fight for the votes of the other members of the party. The winner is going to run against the Democratic candidate in the presidential election. Anyway, they are going to debate with each other very soon: Fox News and Facebook have scheduled a debate among the 10 best candidates for Aug. 6.
According to at least two polls, Jeb Bush is the favorite Republican. The Wall Street Journal and NBC conducted a survey published at the end of June that suggested that Jeb Bush has 22 percent of the vote. According to a more recent poll by Reuters, he has 16 percent. However, the percentage increased up to 42 percent when it included only the other two most popular candidates: Donald Trump, who has 28 percent despite his infamous statements, and the Cuban-American Senator Marco Rubio, who has 20 percent.
The Wall Street Journal and the NBC found that Scott Walker is the second most supported candidate. The Governor of Wisconsin is little known outside of the U.S., but he became well known within his country after mass protests took place against his proposals in 2011.
Jeb Bush is also backed by $114 million raised by his campaign and supporters during the first half of the year. This amount is really relevant, since Marco Rubio managed to raise only $31 million during the same period.
The brother and son of the former presidents is supported by wealthy benefactors through super PACs, a type of organization that allows donations of higher amounts of money than usual.
As for the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton is the most popular candidate by far. According to Reuters, she has 48 percent of the vote, which is much higher than Sen. Bernie Sanders, one of the few American politicians who has identified himself as a socialist. According to The Wall Street Journal and NBC, up to 75 percent of Democratic Party members would vote for Clinton.
If nothing changes before mid-2016, we’ll have another Clinton vs. Bush. Yet, it is still too soon to know. In June 2007, nobody could have figured out that an African-American senator from Illinois was going to take the nomination from Clinton. There are still many months left and a surprise may happen.