On the Caribbean Account*

In Ukraine, the U.S. continues to creep into Russia’s underbelly. In an analogous situation, when the Soviet Union found its way into the Cuban underbelly of the U.S., the world ended up on the brink of a hot war, with events unfolding rapidly. Now both sides are objectively weaker, so the crisis will develop more slowly. Thus, for the time being the U.S. continues to build up out of Ukraine — from its weak economy and army — a more or less controllable structure. But the country is not monolithic in its affinity for America, while the boundary between the poles of power is still arbitrary: Not everyone in Kiev is pleased with Kiev’s current pro-American stance, just like not everyone within the LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic) and the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) is pleased with the ideas of a unified Russian civilization.

As far as how events will develop, various scenarios are possible. The first is an attempt, with U.S. permission, at a rapid strike and liquidation of the LPR and DPR this summer. Moscow, for certain reasons, might stand aside or intervene in the scenario of the war in South Ossetia. But for now, a controlled “freezing” of the conflict against the backdrop of an agreement between Russia and the U.S. is more likely. In the best-case scenario, a confederation will be created following the example of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the worst, the agreements, never put in writing, will make the settlement one-sided, and the LPR and DPR will remain unrecognized territories over which the threat of invasion will hang.

*Editor’s note: In Russian, the Cuban Missile Crisis is known as the “Caribbean Crisis.”

**Translator’s note: LPR and DPR stand for, respectively, Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic.