The Victory of Cuba’s Communist Regime

On July 20, for the first time in half a century, the Cuban flag was raised over the Cuban Embassy in Washington, D.C. On Aug. 14, the American flag will be raised over the U.S. Embassy in Havana. Relations between the United States and Cuba have been fully restored. This is the last of a series of symbolic and concrete acts, which started with official visits, formal bilateral meetings, and led to the re-opening of shipping and airline routes and the removal of Cuba from the blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism.

These are sufficient elements to justify talking about the “end of the Cold War in the Caribbean,” paradoxically at a time when a “Cold War,” or something similar, is beginning in Europe. The two phenomena are probably related, albeit indirectly and not overtly so.

It is completely in Barack Obama’s interest to be on friendly terms with Cuba because Russia could make the most of hostility on the island to set up new bases there. However, it would be reductive to interpret the dialogue between the U.S. and Cuba merely in relation to the renewed opposition between the two blocs. The end to the embargo and marginalization of the Caribbean island was, in fact, one of the main promises set out in Obama’s electoral campaign in 2008. From a Democratic point of view, free trade and normal diplomatic relations could contribute to making even the most restrictive and totalitarian of regimes more democratic. This was Bill Clinton’s view, although he was unable to do much due to the tightening of Castro’s regime in 1994 and the subsequent deaths of defectors in the straits of Florida. Obama, on the other hand, has made the most of a period when Havana’s regime has relaxed, and Fidel was planning his handover to Raul Castro, to fully carry out his Democratic agenda.

Will it work? Is this really the fall of the “wall of water”? There are not many precedents to be honest. But the end of the Cold War in Europe in 1989 was thanks to the fall of the communist regime of East Germany. In Cuba, however, the local communist regime has not fallen; in fact, it is in “good health” and has no intentions of becoming democratic. The most we can expect, from now on, is a transition from a Soviet-type system to a Chinese-style one: from a planned to a freer economy, but nevertheless under the autocratic regime and with control of the main companies in hand.

If anything, the precedent would be set by the normalization of relations between the U.S. and Cuba. A regime that is hostile to the USA, which opposes its democratic values, oppressive of humans rights, declared Marxist-Leninist even to the extreme, it has not had any need for reform before re-instating normal diplomatic and commercial relations with Washington. The Castro brothers just needed to be patient. In Cuba, this situation is seen as victory by the regime’s men, while it is an excruciating defeat for all the dissidents who escaped abroad during a fight that lasted five decades. Their denunciation, their personal example, the bravery with which they have faced the worst persecutions and humiliations, has been “repaid” with Obama’s smiles at Raul Castro.