A heated exchange with a Fox news journalist about allegations of sexism, the cancellation of an appearance at a meeting of conservatives, the departure of his top political adviser; for any other candidate, these elements would mark a campaign nosedive. Not for Donald Trump. After having captured the public’s attention in the days following the first Republican primary presidential debate on August 6, marked notably by a vigorous exchange with host Megyn Kelly, the real estate magnate can rest easy after a battery of polls still show him as the favorite.
Transgressions and Skirmishes
In three public opinion polls, one local (in Iowa, the first state to vote on February 1) and two other national polls, Trump either maintains or strengthens his lead in terms of voter intentions, despite somewhat high margins of error due to the narrowness of the respondent sample. As his early debates have shown, with his disparaging comments toward Mexican immigrants or the military career of former presidential candidate John McCain who spent five years in captivity in Vietnam, the businessman’s transgressions still draw people toward him in a way that is as powerful as his personal success.
During the debate, Trump trampled on political codes by refusing to renounce his candidacy as an independent if Republicans fail to endorse him, while also stating that he had given money in the past to candidates (he claimed that he had contributed to the campaigns of all of the opponents at his side) in order to get their attention. That’s perhaps why his skirmish with journalist Megyn Kelly was difficult to watch, with only candidate Rand Paul, the senator from Kentucky, completely opposed to the businessman while on stage.
Several Republicans, starting with candidate Carly Fiorina, former head of Hewlett-Packard, stated that his comments were inappropriate and that they threatened to advance the theme of the “war against women” often hurled at the Grand Old Party, particularly given its very restrictive positions on the abortion issue. Indeed, Republican leaders fear a repeat of the 2012 defeat, when they were unable to compete with the Democratic Party for the votes of women and Latinos.
A Complicated Task for His Rivals
Even before this new wave of favorable polls, Trump undeniably brought in a record audience for Fox news on August 6. Sporting events aside, this debate was the most watched television broadcast in the history of U.S. cable, with 24 million viewers, more than double the previous record (11.8 million). The previous record was attained the evening of President Barack Obama’s re-election, an event hardly comparable to an internal Republican Party debate in the middle of the summer. In 2011, by comparison, the first Republican primary debate had eight times fewer viewers. No doubt that the news channels that will organize the coming debates (CNN on September 16, and CNBC on October 28) also hope to benefit from such a “Trump effect.”
This insolent popularity complicates the task of his rivals. Some, like Ohio Gov. John Kasich, have described him as “just touching” on the question of immigration, while favoring their own responses to the issues. The author of an often convincing performance during the debate who was overshadowed like the other candidates by the businessman’s controversies, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio officially announced on Sunday, August 9 that he would not respond to any questions about the real estate mogul.
As final proof of his domination, Mr. Trump, who stood center stage during the debate due to his high scores in terms of voter intentions, had the most speaking time during the evening of the debate (10 minutes, 31 seconds), ahead of Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida (8 minutes, 47 seconds) and Mr. Kasich (6 minutes, 56 seconds), according to statistics from the Washington Post.
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