Obama in Cuba: What It Means for Havana, Moscow and Beijing

President Obama’s visit to Cuba is one of his most sensible acts of foreign policy.

That being said, Latin Americans are ambivalent about the visit. Some see it as an admission of failure for the years American policy focused on isolation, economic blockades and sanctions against Cuba. Others see it as evidence that Washington diplomacy is capable of overcoming many years of inertia.

True, overcoming this inertia took time. The American president long ago promised to restore relations with Cuba, during his first electoral campaign. However, time passed, and an articulate U.S. strategy for Latin America didn’t appear.

That’s understandable. Obama’s foreign policy carries the heavy burdens of the campaign in Afghanistan and wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria. Therefore, it’s not surprising Obama didn’t have the strength or intellectual resources left to work on Latin American issues.

Furthermore, according to American colleagues, the U.S. considered Latin America to be a relatively peaceful region in comparison with other parts of the world. Supposedly, strategists in Washington didn’t think it was necessary to consistently deal with Latin American issues. These claims are likely partly true, but not completely. Most likely, the U.S. simply didn’t have a constructive framework for Latin America operations at that time.

Obama’s current visit is a sort of compensation for the lack of principal and good sense that has marked U.S. policy in the Western hemisphere for many years. That’s why, as stated by the minister of foreign affairs, Russia considers this visit entirely positive, especially against the background of American foreign policy.

Cuba also has certain expectations for this visit, particularly in the economic sector. American business is ready to invest in Cuba. The kickoff will be the joint development of two major Havana hotels. This will most likely be followed by investment deals in the Cuban tourism sector.

American telecommunication technologies will also be in demand in Cuba. However, here the Cubans will tread with caution; it’s no secret that the majority of political leaders in Latin America are under some form of a U.S. electronic information shroud. They will work to ensure Cuba doesn’t become like the countries we learned so much about from WikiLeaks and Snowden. At the same time, there is great demand in Cuba for the development of new communication links, so the country will cooperate in that arena.

Americans should also be interested in the many unique medical developments and medicines created by Cuban scientists. Cubans are counting on the demand for these products in American markets. At the same time, by furthering their economic cooperation with Cuba, the U.S. will enter into competition with Russia and China.

Cuba is in a useful geostrategic position. Additionally, we are currently seeing a shift in trade flows from the Atlantic to the Pacific; Cuba is located in the zone flanking the Nicaragua canal, which is currently under construction. As such, it will become extremely attractive for foreign investment.

Cubans understand this and have already begun to form a major multifunctional international hub near the port of Mariel. The project is extremely promising, which is why the Chinese and especially the Brazilians are investing in it. Russia is also in talks to participate.

How does this affect Russian investment in the Cuban economy? We will maintain our niche in the electrical and energy sectors, but working conditions will become much more complicated, and the competition much fiercer. We can’t rely on our political connections the same way we have until now.

Of course, foreign investment is often used as a political tool. The Cubans have taken this possibility into account and intend to establish a balanced relationship with foreign investors. Nevertheless, there will be new risks. The influx of foreign money will, on the one hand, raise the purchasing power of the Cuban economy. At the same time, there will also be an increase in political and ideological risks for the current system.

No matter what happens, the American president took a step, and that step is important for the U.S., for Cuba and for Obama himself. He wants to prove that he didn’t win the Nobel peace prize for nothing…