Trump Didn’t Win; Hillary – and Obama – Lost

With fewer popular votes than his rival, but more votes in the Electoral College, Donald Trump is going to be president of the United States. His win shows the degree of obsolescence in a political system which is impossible to change because of opposition by leaders.

In many states, the rising star millionaire’s criticisms of the leadership of both parties, and of the big media, have been key in pulling together majorities of voters, mostly white and more or less conservative.

Another key point was the candidacy of Mrs. Clinton, which was quickly revealed as a decisive error in due diligence by the Democrats, especially Barack Obama. During his eight years as president of the United States, Obama has failed to build a groundswell of political support that might leave a lasting mark on U.S. life.

The right has shattered the hope of such a lasting mark, but that had already started after Hillary was nominated by the Democrats. The nomination was supported by the White House, in the absence of a suitable candidate and in a disjointed effort to stop Bernie Sanders. Hillary was unable to maintain the Democratic electoral majority in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where her fellow Democrats have been winning races for 30 years.

Trump speaks for a nationalist right fed up with globalization and the costs of defending the world – things that it used to support, but that now affect not only workers but also small and medium-sized businesses. That segment of the U.S. population is making a comeback thanks to Trump. But it lacks leadership from the Republican Party, which saw the candidacy snatched away from it because of hesitation and division in its own ranks.

The new U.S. president will be very weak, because he’s not at home in any sector in the capitol, he’s not a friend of either the big media companies or Wall Street, and he’ll have strong opposition from Democrats.

The Republican agenda in the areas of Social Security, taxes and the budget will start to hold sway with decision makers. The Republicans have a majority in Congress, and there won’t be vetoes from the White House, although everything will continue to be negotiated as usual. Other issues, such as military spending and policy [regarding relations with Russia], will be more complicated. However, there won’t be much ground for worry once the Republicans make their wishes known.

In Mexico, the instability in the currency exchange rate will continue, because it is governed by factors that are primarily economic rather than psychological. The economy is stagnant, debt has increased greatly and, in the face of the growth of credit, inflation is higher. This much is clear.

There’s no point in blaming Trump, or in assuming that continuing the construction of the border wall, which was started by other presidents, might overwhelm the Mexican economy. Obama increased deportations of undocumented Mexicans. And although Trump may do the same, the labor problem between the two countries will continue to be an unresolved issue; in 15 years, no agreement has been reached on Capitol Hill.

The North American Free Trade Agreement can’t be terminated without the consent of the U.S. Congress. This might be possible among the Democrats, who voted against it originally, but would be more difficult for the Republicans, who are in the majority in both houses of Congress. For the Republicans, the problem isn’t NAFTA, but imports from Asia; the Trans-Pacific Partnership is the agreement that is going to be rejected.

There is no Trump right; he merged into an already existing, and very hard-rightist current. Think about Reagan or the Bushes. The new U.S. president isn’t looking to start something new; he climbed up on something old, and knew how to take advantage of the situation to gain popular support, with his irreverence toward politics and his tirades about the breakdown of a discredited system.

Trump’s raucousness probably shook politicians all over the world. But in several states, it got him the votes necessary to put him over the top in the Electoral College, given Mrs. Clinton’s failure in those states. It would appear that Hillary and Obama made an agreement to deliver the presidency of the United States to Trump.