The Supreme Court Justice that Could Shape US Society

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 13 July 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Deborah Chapin. Edited by Tiana Robles.
President Donald Trump has nominated federal appeals court judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve as the new Supreme Court justice. There could be a change in the court’s decisions from the positions the court has taken until now, posing the danger of causing friction in U.S. society. This nomination if confirmed could affect financial regulations, and even areas over which Japan holds influence. I would like to carefully make an observation with respect to such change.

The nine Supreme Court justices currently include four conservatives and four liberals. Anthony Kennedy, who retired because of his age, was often the deciding vote in on this court. For example, the decision to make same-sex marriage legal was narrowly decided on a 5-4 vote.

Kavanaugh is deeply conservative and holds retrospective views on issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion. If the court’s decisions take a 180 degree turn on these kinds of issues that divide public opinion, then disorder will be inevitable. The Senate must confirm the nomination of a justice to the Supreme Court, but the Democratic Party, which holds a minority of seats in the Senate, is resisting it.

What is concerning is that Kavanaugh previously wrote in a law review article that the law should “provide sitting presidents with a temporary deferral of civil suits and of criminal prosecutions and investigations.” If Trump, who is caught in a vortex of “Russiagate” suspicion, selected someone in order to disrupt the investigation which is targeting him, then it would damage public trust in the justices.

On the other hand, those in the world of U.S. economics favor the nomination of Kavanaugh because he calls for a reduction in the authority of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The bureau grew out of the financial crisis involving Lehman Brothers in 2008. It was established by former President Barack Obama as a financial regulatory agency, but critics in the economic world believe this agency inhibits the freedom of economic activity.

Would Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court accelerate efforts by the Trump administration to rescind financial regulations? The impact would not be not limited to the U.S. I would be interested in closely examining Kavanaugh’s remarks at his Senate confirmation hearing.

Since a Supreme Court justice generally serves for life, the influence on U.S. society will be long-lasting. In recent years, people with similar ideologies tended to succeed one another, and thus it was not much of a problem. However, this change in justices could cause the conservative and liberal balance to collapse. The U.S. is standing at a new crossroads.


トランプ米大統領が連邦最高裁判所の新しい判事に連邦控訴裁判所のブレット・カバノー判事を指名した。司法判断が従来と変わる可能性があり、米社会にあつれきをもたらすおそれがある。金融規制のあり方など日本に影響がある分野でも一家言あるとされる。動向を注視したい。
 最高裁の9人の判事は現在、保守系とリベラル系が各4人で、高齢を理由に退く中間系のアンソニー・ケネディ判事の1票で方向性が決まることが多かった。5対4の僅差だった2015年の同性婚の合憲判決は代表例である。
 カバノー氏は保守色が濃く、同性婚や妊娠中絶などに後ろ向きである。こうした国論を二分しかねない問題で、司法判断が百八十度変われば混乱は免れない。就任には上院の承認が必要だが、野党の民主党は反発している。
 懸念されるのは、カバノー氏が過去に「現職大統領は犯罪捜査の対象から外すべきだ」との趣旨の論文を発表していることだ。ロシアゲート疑惑の渦中にあるトランプ氏が自らへの捜査を妨げる目的で人選をしたのだとしたら、司法への信頼を損なう。
 他方、米経済界はカバノー氏の指名を好感している。消費者金融保護局(CFPB)の権限縮小を唱えているからだ。同局は2008年のリーマン・ショックを踏まえ、オバマ前政権が新設した金融規制のための機関だが、経済界は自由な経済活動を阻害していると批判してきた。
 カバノー氏の最高裁入りは、トランプ政権が進める金融規制の緩和を加速させる要因になるのか。影響は米国内にとどまらない。上院の公聴会におけるカバノー氏の発言をよくみていきたい。
 連邦最高裁の判事は原則として終身制のため、米社会への影響は長く続く。近年は思想傾向が似た人物が引き継ぐことが多く、さほど問題にならなかったが、今回の人事で半世紀近く続いた保守とリベラルの均衡が崩れる。米国は新たな岐路に立つことになる。
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